Matches Championship 5 Game Blocks 24/25

Steve Gilbert

Level: Steve Basham
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2024/2025 Season

Block 1
Norwich (H) 3
Coventry (A) 0
Blackburn (A) 0
PNE (H) 3
Stoke (H) 3
Total points out of 15: 9
Block 2
Bristol City (A) 0
Burnley (H) 1
Luton (A) 1
Pompey (A) 1
WBA (H) 1
Total points out of 15: 4
Block 3
Derby (H) 1
Sunderland (A) 0
Swansea (H) 0
Hull (H) 3
Watford (A) 0
Total points out of 15: 4
Block 4
Middlesbrough (H) 0
Sheffield United (A) 0
Millwall (H) 1
QPR (A) 0
Sheffield Wednesday (H) 0
Total points out of 15: 1
Block 5
Leeds (A) 0
Cardiff (H) 3
Plymouth (H) 3
Millwall (A) 3
PNE (A) 1
Total points out of 15: 10
Block 6
Plymouth (A) 1
Blackburn (H) 3
Luton (H) 3
Stoke (A) 1
Bristol City (H) 1
Total points out of 15: 9
Block 7
Burnley (A) 0
Derby (A)
Portsmouth (H)
WBA (A)
Coventry (H)
Total points out of 15:
Block 8
Norwich (A)
Hull (A)
Watford (H)
Middlesbrough (A)
Sheffield United (H)
Total points out of 15:
Block 9
QPR (H)
Sheffield Wednesday (A)
Leeds (H)
Cardiff (A)
Sunderland (H)
Total points out of 15:
Bonus Ball: Swansea (A)​

Season Average PPB
Automatic Promotion
2023/2024 - 96
2022/2023 - 91
2021/2022 - 88
2020/2021 - 91
2019/2020 - 83
Average: 89.8 (90)
PP 5 games: 10
Play-Offs
2023/2024 - 73
2022/2023 - 69
2021/2022 - 75
2020/2021 - 77
2019/2020 - 70
Average: 72.8 (73)
PP 5 games: 9
Safety
2023/2024 - 53
2022/2023 - 50
2021/2022 - 47
2020/21 - 44
2019/2020 - 48
Average: 48.4 (49)
PP 5 games: 6
 
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Think 50pts will be the minimum needed to stay up
If you take the current PPG of all sides in the bottom half of the division and apply the figures across 46 games, you get the following totals with rounding up/down to the nearest whole number:

Millwall 55
Preston 53
Coventry 51
QPR 53
Oxford 52
Derby 48
Stoke 48
Luton 46
Portsmouth 44
Hull 41
Cardiff 42
Plymouth 37

It’s unlikely that enough teams currently on for less than 50 points are going to suddenly rip it up to the extent that it isn’t enough to survive. There will obviously be some dropping off and picking up, but it would be extraordinary to see anybody go down with 50 based on the current state of play.

I think 47/48 could well be enough this season. It’s even feasible that 45 could do it.
 
The last 4 games has given us an excellent chance of survival.
Looking at the target for 50pts, we now need 22pts from 21 games, 6 wins, 4 draws (11 defeats)

Compared to the current bottom 3:
Hull, 27pts from 20 games, 7 wins, 6 draws (7 defeats)
Cardiff, 27pts from 21 games, 7 wins, 6 draws (8 defeats)
Plymouth, 30pts from 21 games, 8 wins, 6 draws (7 defeats)

Our games against them will be pivotal 🙏

Throw in decent results against Stoke, Coventry, Portsmouth, Luton and Derby and we can do this .
 
OUFC rest of season-01.jpg

Here's my thoughts on what we need to achieve the rest of this season. I would put this game tonight as a must win, to be honest.

Obviously some of these results could go better / worse, such as Hull and Derby away.
 
View attachment 24548

Here's my thoughts on what we need to achieve the rest of this season. I would put this game tonight as a must win, to be honest.

Obviously some of these results could go better / worse, such as Hull and Derby away.
It’s the home games for me that’ll dictate it all. We’ve got 7 left against teams outside of the playoffs, and realistically need to win at least 3 of those. Then we’re just looking for a couple of upset wins away from home, or against a parachute payments club.

Blackburn, Luton, Bristol City, Pompey, Coventry, Watford and QPR.
 
6-8 points from the next 4 games is quite important, in my opinion. If we go into those "harder" games against Burnley, Derby, WBA away with some confidence / form then we have every chance of staying up IMHO.
 
View attachment 24548

Here's my thoughts on what we need to achieve the rest of this season. I would put this game tonight as a must win, to be honest.

Obviously some of these results could go better / worse, such as Hull and Derby away.
No way is today a must win.
For Plymouth it is bordering on a must win game but we could draw today and hit over 50 points.
 
It’s the home games for me that’ll dictate it all. We’ve got 7 left against teams outside of the playoffs, and realistically need to win at least 3 of those. Then we’re just looking for a couple of upset wins away from home, or against a parachute payments club.

Blackburn, Luton, Bristol City, Pompey, Coventry, Watford and QPR.
Agree. 3 or 4 wins from those games and pick up a couple away.
 
By my reckoning, we're 2 points ahead of where we need to be right now.

So far I've not got one right, so Let's see if we can beat Stoke City! :)

1737536058322.png
 
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So 9 points from the latest block and 9 games unbeaten - can’t complain with that!

Yesterday was an enormous missed opportunity though. 13 points to get to the coveted 50 mark and the remaining fixtures don’t look ideal. 10 against top half teams and only two home games against bottom half teams.

Home vs bottom half: Pompey, QPR (2)
Home vs top half: Leeds, Sheff Utd, Sunderland, Coventry, Watford (5)
Away vs bottom half: Derby, Hull, Cardiff, Swansea (4)
Away vs top half: Norwich, Boro, WBA, Burnley, Sheffield Wednesday (5)

Goes to show how crucial the recent run has been and its odd-on we’ll get what we need, I checked earlier and we’re 5 or 6/1 to go down now. We do need three more wins though and the Derby and Pompey games this month represent key opportunities to get at least one.
 
The last 4 games has given us an excellent chance of survival.
Looking at the target for 50pts, we now need 22pts from 21 games, 6 wins, 4 draws (11 defeats)

Compared to the current bottom 3:
Hull, 27pts from 20 games, 7 wins, 6 draws (7 defeats)
Cardiff, 27pts from 21 games, 7 wins, 6 draws (8 defeats)
Plymouth, 30pts from 21 games, 8 wins, 6 draws (7 defeats)

4 Weeks on, to get to the magical 50pts, we now need 13pts from 16 games, 3 wins, 4 draws (9 defeats)

Compared to the current bottom 3:
Derby, 23pts from 16 games, 6 wins, 5 draws (only 5 defeats) (Equivalent to 66pts a season)
Luton, 23pts from 16 games, 6 wins, 5 draws (only 5 defeats) (Equivalent to 66pts a season)
Plymouth, 25pts from 16 games, 7 wins, 4 draws (only 5 defeats) (Equivalent to 72pts a season)
 
4 Weeks on, to get to the magical 50pts, we now need 13pts from 16 games, 3 wins, 4 draws (9 defeats)

Compared to the current bottom 3:
Derby, 23pts from 16 games, 6 wins, 5 draws (only 5 defeats) (Equivalent to 66pts a season)
Luton, 23pts from 16 games, 6 wins, 5 draws (only 5 defeats) (Equivalent to 66pts a season)
Plymouth, 25pts from 16 games, 7 wins, 4 draws (only 5 defeats) (Equivalent to 72pts a season)
Yes and if this season the target ends up being 47/ 48 points, our target is easier still
 
They have a chance of going down surely but I too see them staying up. They have too many good players but in a ‘dogfight’ strange things happen

 
The concern I have is not just the difficulty of our fixtures remaining but also the clubs below us all have quite favourable looking runs. As an example looking in Opta next 6 games difficult rating, Plymouth Pompey and derby have a nice set of fixtures coming up. There is not doubt in my mind that things will tighten up again. The upside is that a lot of these teams will play each other and Plymouth finding some form may help take points of others below us.
 
So. An update.

We need 13 points to get to 50: this is, I think, how we might do it. We HAVE to win against Derby and Portsmouth IMHO, as they're really 6 pointers.

1738744267603.png
 
So. An update.

We need 13 points to get to 50: this is, I think, how we might do it. We HAVE to win against Derby and Portsmouth IMHO, as they're really 6 pointers.

View attachment 25215

Looking at the history of relegation thresholds, I am hoping setting the bar at 50 points is too high.

23/24 - 50pts
22/23 - 44 pts
21/22 - 37 pts
20/21 - 43 pts
19/20 - 48 pts
18/19 - 40 pts
17/18 - 41 pts

Average is more around 44 pts so I am hoping a maximum 9 points will be enough.

The games against Derby, Portsmouth, Hull and Cardiff are huge 6 pointers, but I think we can expect to be able to sneak points from any team outside of that top 4 breakaway pack (home or away).

No denying that the last block is a horrible run in, but Sheff U, Leeds and Sunderland all at home, wow, anything could happen.
 
While the fixtures in April do look tough, it's worth remembering that Leeds, Sheffield United and Sunderland are visiting us during peak bottling season. I could definitely see nerves kicking in and us picking up points against any of them
 
While the fixtures in April do look tough, it's worth remembering that Leeds, Sheffield United and Sunderland are visiting us during peak bottling season. I could definitely see nerves kicking in and us picking up points against any of them

We are also a lot better at home.
 
While the fixtures in April do look tough, it's worth remembering that Leeds, Sheffield United and Sunderland are visiting us during peak bottling season. I could definitely see nerves kicking in and us picking up points against any of them
Sunderland could easily be out of the automatic race and safely inside the play-offs when they come to us. Not sure if that will make them relax and play with freedom, or mentally lose 1 or 2 percent from their performance with an eye on the big matches to come giving us an increased chance to win however.
 
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