Matches Championship 5 Game Blocks 24/25

[Steve Gilbert]

2024/2025 Season​

Block 1 Norwich (H) 3 Coventry (A) 0 Blackburn (A) 0 PNE (H) 3 Stoke (H) 3 Total points out of 15: 9​	Block 2 Bristol City (A) 0 Burnley (H) 1 Luton (A) 1 Pompey (A) 1 WBA (H) 1 Total points out of 15: 4​	Block 3 Derby (H) 1 Sunderland (A) 0 Swansea (H) 0 Hull (H) 3 Watford (A) 0 Total points out of 15: 4​
Block 4 Middlesbrough (H) 0 Sheffield United (A) 0 Millwall (H) 1 QPR (A) 0 Sheffield Wednesday (H) 0 Total points out of 15: 1​	Block 5 Leeds (A) 0 Cardiff (H) 3 Plymouth (H) 3 Millwall (A) 3 PNE (A) 1 Total points out of 15: 10​	Block 6 Plymouth (A) 1 Blackburn (H) 3 Luton (H) 3 Stoke (A) 1 Bristol City (H) 1 Total points out of 15: 9​
Block 7 Burnley (A) 0 Derby (A) 1 Portsmouth (H) 0 WBA (A) 0 Coventry (H) 0 Total points out of 15: 1​	Block 8 Norwich (A) 1 Hull (A) 0 Watford (H) 3 Middlesbrough (A) Sheffield United (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 9 QPR (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Leeds (H) Cardiff (A) Sunderland (H) Total points out of 15:​

Bonus Ball: Swansea (A)​

Season Average PPB​

Automatic Promotion 2023/2024 - 96 2022/2023 - 91 2021/2022 - 88 2020/2021 - 91 2019/2020 - 83 Average: 89.8 (90) PP 5 games: 10​

Play-Offs 2023/2024 - 73 2022/2023 - 69 2021/2022 - 75 2020/2021 - 77 2019/2020 - 70 Average: 72.8 (73) PP 5 games: 9​

Safety 2023/2024 - 53 2022/2023 - 50 2021/2022 - 47 2020/21 - 44 2019/2020 - 48 Average: 48.4 (49) PP 5 games: 6​

 

[RyanioBirdio]

Think 50pts will be the minimum needed to stay up

If you take the current PPG of all sides in the bottom half of the division and apply the figures across 46 games, you get the following totals with rounding up/down to the nearest whole number:

Millwall 55
Preston 53
Coventry 51
QPR 53
Oxford 52
Derby 48
Stoke 48
Luton 46
Portsmouth 44
Hull 41
Cardiff 42
Plymouth 37

It’s unlikely that enough teams currently on for less than 50 points are going to suddenly rip it up to the extent that it isn’t enough to survive. There will obviously be some dropping off and picking up, but it would be extraordinary to see anybody go down with 50 based on the current state of play.

I think 47/48 could well be enough this season. It’s even feasible that 45 could do it.

 

[Village-Yellow]

The last 4 games has given us an excellent chance of survival.
Looking at the target for 50pts, we now need 22pts from 21 games, 6 wins, 4 draws (11 defeats)

Compared to the current bottom 3:
Hull, 27pts from 20 games, 7 wins, 6 draws (7 defeats)
Cardiff, 27pts from 21 games, 7 wins, 6 draws (8 defeats)
Plymouth, 30pts from 21 games, 8 wins, 6 draws (7 defeats)

Our games against them will be pivotal

Throw in decent results against Stoke, Coventry, Portsmouth, Luton and Derby and we can do this .

 

[TobyDavis34]

Here's my thoughts on what we need to achieve the rest of this season. I would put this game tonight as a must win, to be honest.

Obviously some of these results could go better / worse, such as Hull and Derby away.

 

[WRox]

View attachment 24548

Here's my thoughts on what we need to achieve the rest of this season. I would put this game tonight as a must win, to be honest.

Obviously some of these results could go better / worse, such as Hull and Derby away.

It’s the home games for me that’ll dictate it all. We’ve got 7 left against teams outside of the playoffs, and realistically need to win at least 3 of those. Then we’re just looking for a couple of upset wins away from home, or against a parachute payments club.

Blackburn, Luton, Bristol City, Pompey, Coventry, Watford and QPR.

 

[TobyDavis34]

6-8 points from the next 4 games is quite important, in my opinion. If we go into those "harder" games against Burnley, Derby, WBA away with some confidence / form then we have every chance of staying up IMHO.

 

[Foley]

View attachment 24548

Here's my thoughts on what we need to achieve the rest of this season. I would put this game tonight as a must win, to be honest.

Obviously some of these results could go better / worse, such as Hull and Derby away.

No way is today a must win.
For Plymouth it is bordering on a must win game but we could draw today and hit over 50 points.

 

[Foley]

It’s the home games for me that’ll dictate it all. We’ve got 7 left against teams outside of the playoffs, and realistically need to win at least 3 of those. Then we’re just looking for a couple of upset wins away from home, or against a parachute payments club.

Blackburn, Luton, Bristol City, Pompey, Coventry, Watford and QPR.

Agree. 3 or 4 wins from those games and pick up a couple away.

 

[TobyDavis34]

By my reckoning, we're 2 points ahead of where we need to be right now.

So far I've not got one right, so Let's see if we can beat Stoke City!

 

[WRox]

So 9 points from the latest block and 9 games unbeaten - can’t complain with that!

Yesterday was an enormous missed opportunity though. 13 points to get to the coveted 50 mark and the remaining fixtures don’t look ideal. 10 against top half teams and only two home games against bottom half teams.

Home vs bottom half: Pompey, QPR (2)
Home vs top half: Leeds, Sheff Utd, Sunderland, Coventry, Watford (5)
Away vs bottom half: Derby, Hull, Cardiff, Swansea (4)
Away vs top half: Norwich, Boro, WBA, Burnley, Sheffield Wednesday (5)

Goes to show how crucial the recent run has been and its odd-on we’ll get what we need, I checked earlier and we’re 5 or 6/1 to go down now. We do need three more wins though and the Derby and Pompey games this month represent key opportunities to get at least one.

 

[NorthWestOx]

The last 4 games has given us an excellent chance of survival.
Looking at the target for 50pts, we now need 22pts from 21 games, 6 wins, 4 draws (11 defeats)

Compared to the current bottom 3:
Hull, 27pts from 20 games, 7 wins, 6 draws (7 defeats)
Cardiff, 27pts from 21 games, 7 wins, 6 draws (8 defeats)
Plymouth, 30pts from 21 games, 8 wins, 6 draws (7 defeats)

4 Weeks on, to get to the magical 50pts, we now need 13pts from 16 games, 3 wins, 4 draws (9 defeats)

Compared to the current bottom 3:
Derby, 23pts from 16 games, 6 wins, 5 draws (only 5 defeats) (Equivalent to 66pts a season)
Luton, 23pts from 16 games, 6 wins, 5 draws (only 5 defeats) (Equivalent to 66pts a season)
Plymouth, 25pts from 16 games, 7 wins, 4 draws (only 5 defeats) (Equivalent to 72pts a season)

 

[Foley]

4 Weeks on, to get to the magical 50pts, we now need 13pts from 16 games, 3 wins, 4 draws (9 defeats)

Compared to the current bottom 3:
Derby, 23pts from 16 games, 6 wins, 5 draws (only 5 defeats) (Equivalent to 66pts a season)
Luton, 23pts from 16 games, 6 wins, 5 draws (only 5 defeats) (Equivalent to 66pts a season)
Plymouth, 25pts from 16 games, 7 wins, 4 draws (only 5 defeats) (Equivalent to 72pts a season)

Yes and if this season the target ends up being 47/ 48 points, our target is easier still

 

[West Oxon U’s]

They have a chance of going down surely but I too see them staying up. They have too many good players but in a ‘dogfight’ strange things happen

 

[Twiggy85]

The concern I have is not just the difficulty of our fixtures remaining but also the clubs below us all have quite favourable looking runs. As an example looking in Opta next 6 games difficult rating, Plymouth Pompey and derby have a nice set of fixtures coming up. There is not doubt in my mind that things will tighten up again. The upside is that a lot of these teams will play each other and Plymouth finding some form may help take points of others below us.

 

[TobyDavis34]

So. An update.

We need 13 points to get to 50: this is, I think, how we might do it. We HAVE to win against Derby and Portsmouth IMHO, as they're really 6 pointers.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

So. An update.

We need 13 points to get to 50: this is, I think, how we might do it. We HAVE to win against Derby and Portsmouth IMHO, as they're really 6 pointers.

View attachment 25215

You think we will only win 3 more games this season when we have just won 5 out of the last 10?

 

[Village-Yellow]

So. An update.

We need 13 points to get to 50: this is, I think, how we might do it. We HAVE to win against Derby and Portsmouth IMHO, as they're really 6 pointers.

View attachment 25215

Looking at the history of relegation thresholds, I am hoping setting the bar at 50 points is too high.

23/24 - 50pts
22/23 - 44 pts
21/22 - 37 pts
20/21 - 43 pts
19/20 - 48 pts
18/19 - 40 pts
17/18 - 41 pts

Average is more around 44 pts so I am hoping a maximum 9 points will be enough.

The games against Derby, Portsmouth, Hull and Cardiff are huge 6 pointers, but I think we can expect to be able to sneak points from any team outside of that top 4 breakaway pack (home or away).

No denying that the last block is a horrible run in, but Sheff U, Leeds and Sunderland all at home, wow, anything could happen.

 

[TobyDavis34]

You think we will only win 3 more games this season when we have just won 5 out of the last 10?

These are minimum requirements

I'm hopeful we get wins against Coventry, Hull away and QPR at home, tbh

 

[Edinburghyellow]

While the fixtures in April do look tough, it's worth remembering that Leeds, Sheffield United and Sunderland are visiting us during peak bottling season. I could definitely see nerves kicking in and us picking up points against any of them

 

[holdsteady]

While the fixtures in April do look tough, it's worth remembering that Leeds, Sheffield United and Sunderland are visiting us during peak bottling season. I could definitely see nerves kicking in and us picking up points against any of them

We are also a lot better at home.

 

[SteMerritt]

While the fixtures in April do look tough, it's worth remembering that Leeds, Sheffield United and Sunderland are visiting us during peak bottling season. I could definitely see nerves kicking in and us picking up points against any of them

Sunderland could easily be out of the automatic race and safely inside the play-offs when they come to us. Not sure if that will make them relax and play with freedom, or mentally lose 1 or 2 percent from their performance with an eye on the big matches to come giving us an increased chance to win however.

 

[WRox]

So. An update.

We need 13 points to get to 50: this is, I think, how we might do it. We HAVE to win against Derby and Portsmouth IMHO, as they're really 6 pointers.

View attachment 25215

We don’t HAVE to, but I think it’s important we don’t lose next Tuesday to maintain the gap and reduce the likelihood of 50 being needed.

Watford have lost three on the bounce, have players injured and had a poor window. With them QPR and Pompey at home, there’s a big opportunity for 5 or 6 points. Derby, Hull, Cardiff and Swansea should all be tight games, so would expect a minimum of 4 from those. The eight games against promotion chasers won’t be easy, but would still expect another 4 from those too.

 

[ThatSlopesATwelfthMan]

So. An update.

We need 13 points to get to 50: this is, I think, how we might do it. We HAVE to win against Derby and Portsmouth IMHO, as they're really 6 pointers.

View attachment 25215

This got me thinking. Not sure if Rowett uses the 5-game block method internally but lists like this show why some managers do. Even as a fan this feels pretty overwhelming.

Winning the next two would certainly help (a lot) but don't think we can go to Pride Park as a fanbase or players thinking we're on a 'must win' cliff edge. For the 15 remaining games divided into 5 game blocks you have us at 7-3-3 points which feels about right on paper. Wouldn't surprise me at all if points come in a completely different chaotic way though, especially in the last block. By the time we play Sunderland at home they could well be in a solid playoff spot but with no chance of autos and put out a second string, Swansea could be safely mid table with nowt to play for by the last game etc. etc.

We're in a decent position but I'm expecting a rollercoaster ride from here on in. Beat Derby and Pompey and that'll be a St Giles Fair, lose them and we're at Alton Towers.

 

[WRox]

Looking at the history of relegation thresholds, I am hoping setting the bar at 50 points is too high.

23/24 - 50pts
22/23 - 44 pts
21/22 - 37 pts
20/21 - 43 pts
19/20 - 48 pts
18/19 - 40 pts
17/18 - 41 pts

Average is more around 44 pts so I am hoping a maximum 9 points will be enough.

The games against Derby, Portsmouth, Hull and Cardiff are huge 6 pointers, but I think we can expect to be able to sneak points from any team outside of that top 4 breakaway pack (home or away).

No denying that the last block is a horrible run in, but Sheff U, Leeds and Sunderland all at home, wow, anything could happen.

This is interesting - I hadn’t realised that the safety shown in the pinned post is how many points the 21st team got rather than how many points were needed to stay up.

Average across the last five seasons is 45.4. That’d tie in with the points per game the bottom 5 have achieved so far. It might get pushed slightly higher, but not sure I’m expecting three teams to hit top half/playoffs form like Sheffield Wednesday and QPR did last year. Obviously a result next week would help to keep that number lower.

 

[Foley]

This is interesting - I hadn’t realised that the safety shown in the pinned post is how many points the 21st team got rather than how many points were needed to stay up.

Average across the last five seasons is 45.4. That’d tie in with the points per game the bottom 5 have achieved so far. It might get pushed slightly higher, but not sure I’m expecting three teams to hit top half/playoffs form like Sheffield Wednesday and QPR did last year. Obviously a result next week would help to keep that number lower.

It is very likely that 46/ 47 points will be enough. Hopefully we will vet more than the perceived magical 50 points though.
We definitely dont have to win the next 2 games, but avoiding defeat next Tuesday would help us a lot.
Of we were to win at Derby, I can't see them catching us ( hopefully they lose at Norwich Saturday)

 

[Bigdwoolly]

Some of this has been done before, but I thought I'd have a look myself, comparing where the relegated teams were after 31 games to see how safe or otherwise we are. I find average or median points required to stay up not always that useful given each season is relative.

Obviously 60 teams have been relegated in the last 20 seasons.
The good news is that after 31 games, 48 of those teams were already in the relegation places and failed to escape.

Looking at the position/points of the teams who were not in the relegation places after 31 games but ended up getting relegated there is one big outlier. Hull in 2019/20, the Covid year. They had 40 points and were in 14th position, managing just 5 after that and finishing bottom!

Beyond that the next highest point totals after 31 games were 35 (twice), 34 (3 times) 33, 32, 31 (twice), 30.

Currently we have 37 points, so the top end - it would be the 2nd worse collapse over the last 20 years. It makes sense that the bookies have us around 5 or 6/1 to go down. It could happen and isn't unprecedented at all, but it is pretty unlikely historically.

 

[Village-Yellow]

This is interesting - I hadn’t realised that the safety shown in the pinned post is how many points the 21st team got rather than how many points were needed to stay up.

Average across the last five seasons is 45.4. That’d tie in with the points per game the bottom 5 have achieved so far. It might get pushed slightly higher, but not sure I’m expecting three teams to hit top half/playoffs form like Sheffield Wednesday and QPR did last year. Obviously a result next week would help to keep that number lower.

Agreed.

It really does emphasise the importance of those 6 pointer games (Portsmouth/Derby/Hull/Cardiff).

Getting a decent points haul points in those fixtures will not only increase the gap but in all likelihood lower the threshold for survival.

 

[TobyDavis34]

It is very likely that 46/ 47 points will be enough. Hopefully we will vet more than the perceived magical 50 points though.
We definitely dont have to win the next 2 games, but avoiding defeat next Tuesday would help us a lot.
Of we were to win at Derby, I can't see them catching us ( hopefully they lose at Norwich Saturday)

Agreed.

It really does emphasise the importance of those 6 pointer games (Portsmouth/Derby/Hull/Cardiff).

Getting a decent points haul points in those fixtures will not only increase the gap but in all likelihood lower the threshold for survival.

This is kinda why I see them as must wins. Even though, of course, they're not, beating Pompey and Derby will probably make us close to safe, considering our points total versus them after those results would be +3 points. 13 points difference to Derby, makes it very hard for them to overhaul us. Derby have Norwich away this weekend, Luton have Sunderland away tonight, Sheffield United at home on Saturday. I don't see either of those sides getting anything out of those games.

 

[m]

Some of this has been done before, but I thought I'd have a look myself, comparing where the relegated teams were after 31 games to see how safe or otherwise we are. I find average or median points required to stay up not always that useful given each season is relative.

Obviously 60 teams have been relegated in the last 20 seasons.
The good news is that after 31 games, 48 of those teams were already in the relegation places and failed to escape.

Looking at the position/points of the teams who were not in the relegation places after 31 games but ended up getting relegated there is one big outlier. Hull in 2019/20, the Covid year. They had 40 points and were in 14th position, managing just 5 after that and finishing bottom!

Beyond that the next highest point totals after 31 games were 35 (twice), 34 (3 times) 33, 32, 31 (twice), 30.

Currently we have 37 points, so the top end - it would be the 2nd worse collapse over the last 20 years. It makes sense that the bookies have us around 5 or 6/1 to go down. It could happen and isn't unprecedented at all, but it is pretty unlikely historically.

Interesting stuf.

Despite things looking alright, I really can't imagine Rowett becoming complacent.

 

[WRox]

Horrible block and staying up “the easy way” out the window after getting 1 point from Derby and Pompey.

The positive is that one of Plymouth, Derby or Luton would now need more or less top half form (1.3ppg+) for the rest of the season to push the points needed past the usual 46. So probably a couple of wins needed rather than three now, despite our own recent troubles.

Where do we get those? Well Coventry are second in the form table and their only loss was against Leeds, Norwich are 5th although Derby battled to a point there recently. In five of the six games after those though, we play 14th, 17th at home, 21st, 18th at home and 16th in the form table. Our forms dropped off, but so has Watford’s, QPR’s and Boro’s.

That’ll be the key period that then determines whether we need a point or two or a win or two from Cardiff, Sunderland and Swansea at the end.

 

[Village-Yellow]

Horrible block and staying up “the easy way” out the window after getting 1 point from Derby and Pompey.

The positive is that one of Plymouth, Derby or Luton would now need more or less top half form (1.3ppg+) for the rest of the season to push the points needed past the usual 46. So probably a couple of wins needed rather than three now, despite our own recent troubles.

Where do we get those? Well Coventry are second in the form table and their only loss was against Leeds, Norwich are 5th although Derby battled to a point there recently. In five of the six games after those though, we play 14th, 17th at home, 21st, 18th at home and 16th in the form table. Our forms dropped off, but so has Watford’s, QPR’s and Boro’s.

That’ll be the key period that then determines whether we need a point or two or a win or two from Cardiff, Sunderland and Swansea at the end.

Always a chance of bagging a big win (look at Hull on Saturday), but being realistic if we don't get the required points from those 5 fixtures and do end up getting caught, we would have deserved it.

But we'll pull it off. It will go to the wire, but we'll come through.

Keeps it interesting if nothing else