Matches Championship 5 Game Blocks 24/25

[Steve Gilbert]

Now the fixtures are out I have done the seasonal 5 game blocks. As always please let me know if you want anything added.
It's a little bit different than in recent years with the main focus on being survival rather than play offs. When you break it down, 6 points every 5 games does seem achievable.

2024/2025 Season​

Block 1 Norwich (H) 3 Coventry (A) 0 Blackburn (A) 0 PNE (H) 3 Stoke (H) 3 Total points out of 15: 9​	Block 2 Bristol City (A) 0 Burnley (H) 1 Luton (A) 1 Pompey (A) 1 WBA (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 3 Derby (H) Sunderland (A) Swansea (H) Hull (H) Watford (A) Total points out of 15:​
Block 4 Middlesbrough (H) Sheffield United (A) Millwall (H) Plymouth (A) QPR (A) Total points out of 15:​	Block 5 Sheffield Wednesday (H) Leeds (A) Cardiff (H) Plymouth (H) Millwall (A) Total points out of 15:​	Block 6 PNE (A) Blackburn (H) Luton (H) Stoke (A) Bristol City (H) Total points out of 15:​
Block 7 Burnley (A) Derby (A) Portsmouth (H) WBA (A) Coventry (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 8 Norwich (A) Hull (A) Watford (H) Middlesbrough (A) Sheffield United (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 9 QPR (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Leeds (H) Cardiff (A) Sunderland (H) Total points out of 15:​

Bonus Ball: Swansea (A)​

Season average PPB:​

Automatic Promotion 2023/2024 - 96 2022/2023 - 91 2021/2022 - 88 2020/2021 - 91 2019/2020 - 83 Average: 89.8 (90) PP 5 games: 10​

Play-Offs 2023/2024 - 73 2022/2023 - 69 2021/2022 - 75 2020/2021 - 77 2019/2020 - 70 Average: 72.8 (73) PP 5 games: 9​

Safety 2023/2024 - 53 2022/2023 - 50 2021/2022 - 47 2020/21 - 44 2019/2020 - 48 Average: 48.4 (49) PP 5 games: 6​

 

[Emilio]

For me The key moment always at Box 5 and 6. If we can get 35-40 points before Boxing Day, chance for survive is very big.

And during that moment ( Box 5 and 6 ) there will be some changes with us and other teams that will be affect the race. The winter transfer window will open on 1 January 2025 and close on Monday 3 February 2025 at 11pm.

But from some earlier matches that we have play, i have confident with Des and the squad. All the best for OUFC !!!

35-40 points by Boxing Day is very ambitious. Only 6 teams had managed that amount last season, and all-but-one of them finished in the playoffs/automatic promotion places. Personally, I would be be happy to see us upwards of 25 points, though (as you see below) Birmingham had 27 at that point and still went down, while QPR only had 20 and managed to survive.

Last season's table at Christmas:

 

[SSO]

Played 5 points 9
The longer we can keep that 4 points (or more) gap between the fames played and points won the better.
I would be happy to float between 7th and 15th all season. The difficulty is winning away every now and then. Those are the big wins. I think a lot of teams in this league play for a draw without playing for a draw if that makes sense.

 

[Marked Ox]

35-40 points by Boxing Day is very ambitious. Only 6 teams had managed that amount last season, and all-but-one of them finished in the playoffs/automatic promotion places. Personally, I would be be happy to see us upwards of 25 points, though (as you see below) Birmingham had 27 at that point and still went down, while QPR only had 20 and managed to survive.

Last season's table at Christmas:

View attachment 22825

Tbf there is the Wayne Rooney anchor on Birmingham's total.

 

[Emilio]

Played 5 points 9
The longer we can keep that 4 points (or more) gap between the fames played and points won the better.
I would be happy to float between 7th and 15th all season. The difficulty is winning away every now and then. Those are the big wins. I think a lot of teams in this league play for a draw without playing for a draw if that makes sense.

This season will consist of the ones we COULD have taken a point from away, and the ones we SHOULD have taken at least a point from away. Case and point, Coventry and Blackburn. Could have scraped a point at Cov, and played so well that we almost (barring an unfortunate stoppage time error) did, while Blackburn were nowhere near as tough an opposition, and not taking a point from that match (particularly having been in the lead) was criminal.

 

[Foley]

Played 5 points 9
The longer we can keep that 4 points (or more) gap between the fames played and points won the better.
I would be happy to float between 7th and 15th all season. The difficulty is winning away every now and then. Those are the big wins. I think a lot of teams in this league play for a draw without playing for a draw if that makes sense.

Agree.
We need to get 3 to 4 away wins and pickup a few draws.
Plymouth won 3 times away last season and drew 7 ( 10 home wins and 5 draws)

 

[Emilio]

Then you also have that aspect as to who those away wins/draws are against. Against a team rivaling for survival, those become 6 pointers. Against the "bigger teams", those can be counted as freebies, as most other teams at the lower end of the table won't be getting points at your Hawthorns, Bramall Lanes, Elland Roads, etc.

A lot of maths that can go into it

 

[Steve Gilbert]

While 2 good points against Burnley and Luton, we really need to get a win on Saturday as I’m not sure I can see us getting much against West Brom.
Saying that, 1 more point in this current block means over 10 games we are doing enough to stay up.

 

[BristolOx]

While 2 good points against Burnley and Luton, we really need to get a win on Saturday as I’m not sure I can see us getting much against West Brom.
Saying that, 1 more point in this current block means over 10 games we are doing enough to stay up.

Unless you use the recalculated metric which means we're already doing enough

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Unless you use the recalculated metric which means we're already doing enough

Always best to set targets higher than actually required

 

[IsleofWightYellow]

The funny thing about football is we’d have been better off not getting the luck against Burnley, and conceding a couple, but then having one more of our many chances tonight go in. As it is, we’ve got one point less than we would have in that scenario but feel good about a couple of games undefeated.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

The funny thing about football is we’d have been better off not getting the luck against Burnley, and conceding a couple, but then having one more of our many chances tonight go in. As it is, we’ve got one point less than we would have in that scenario but feel good about a couple of games undefeated.

I understand what you saying but that result against Burnley means we stay unbeaten at home and tonight’s point stops the rot when it comes to losing away games.

Teams will notice we haven’t lost at home yet and it will play into the minds when they come to play us.

 

[IsleofWightYellow]

I understand what you saying but that result against Burnley means we stay unbeaten at home and tonight’s point stops the rot when it comes to losing away games.

Teams will notice we haven’t lost at home yet and it will play into the minds when they come to play us.

True, but by that logic you could also say that we still haven’t won away and that could play on minds in the next game against Portsmouth, for example.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

True, but by that logic you could also say that we still haven’t won away and that could play on minds in the next game against Portsmouth, for example.

It could do but I’d imagine them not having won a single game yet will play on their mind more.