Matches Championship 5 Game Blocks 24/25

[Steve Gilbert]

2024/2025 Season​

Block 1 Norwich (H) 3 Coventry (A) 0 Blackburn (A) 0 PNE (H) 3 Stoke (H) 3 Total points out of 15: 9​	Block 2 Bristol City (A) 0 Burnley (H) 1 Luton (A) 1 Pompey (A) 1 WBA (H) 1 Total points out of 15: 4​	Block 3 Derby (H) 1 Sunderland (A) 0 Swansea (H) 0 Hull (H) 3 Watford (A) 0 Total points out of 15: 4​
Block 4 Middlesbrough (H) 0 Sheffield United (A) 0 Millwall (H) 1 QPR (A) 0 Sheffield Wednesday (H) 0 Total points out of 15: 1​	Block 5 Leeds (A) 0 Cardiff (H) 3 Plymouth (H) 3 Millwall (A) 3 PNE (A) 1 Total points out of 15: 10​	Block 6 Plymouth (A) 1 Blackburn (H) 3 Luton (H) 3 Stoke (A) 1 Bristol City (H) 1 Total points out of 15: 9​
Block 7 Burnley (A) 0 Derby (A) 1 Portsmouth (H) 0 WBA (A) 0 Coventry (H) 0 Total points out of 15: 1​	Block 8 Norwich (A) 1 Hull (A) 0 Watford (H) 3 Middlesbrough (A) Sheffield United (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 9 QPR (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Leeds (H) Cardiff (A) Sunderland (H) Total points out of 15:​

Bonus Ball: Swansea (A)​

Season Average PPB​

Automatic Promotion 2023/2024 - 96 2022/2023 - 91 2021/2022 - 88 2020/2021 - 91 2019/2020 - 83 Average: 89.8 (90) PP 5 games: 10​

Play-Offs 2023/2024 - 73 2022/2023 - 69 2021/2022 - 75 2020/2021 - 77 2019/2020 - 70 Average: 72.8 (73) PP 5 games: 9​

Safety 2023/2024 - 53 2022/2023 - 50 2021/2022 - 47 2020/21 - 44 2019/2020 - 48 Average: 48.4 (49) PP 5 games: 6​

 

[Steve Gilbert]

With one game to go in the first block we have already reached the magic 6 points which is required for safety.
Stoke have the same record as us after 4 games. I certainly think we should be getting a minimum of 1 point against them but there is absolutely no reason why we shouldn’t be able to beat them.

 

[Foxy]

Now the fixtures are out I have done the seasonal 5 game blocks. As always please let me know if you want anything added.
It's a little bit different than in recent years with the main focus on being survival rather than play offs. When you break it down, 6 points every 5 games does seem achievable.

2024/2025 Season​

Block 1 Norwich (H) 3 Coventry (A) 0 Blackburn (A) 0 PNE (H) 3 Stoke (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 2 Bristol City (A) Burnley (H) Luton (A) Pompey (A) WBA (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 3 Derby (H) Sunderland (A) Swansea (H) Hull (H) Watford (A) Total points out of 15:​
Block 4 Middlesbrough (H) Sheffield United (A) Millwall (H) Plymouth (A) QPR (A) Total points out of 15:​	Block 5 Sheffield Wednesday (H) Leeds (A) Cardiff (H) Plymouth (H) Millwall (A) Total points out of 15:​	Block 6 PNE (A) Blackburn (H) Luton (H) Stoke (A) Bristol City (H) Total points out of 15:​
Block 7 Burnley (A) Derby (A) Portsmouth (H) WBA (A) Coventry (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 8 Norwich (A) Hull (A) Watford (H) Middlesbrough (A) Sheffield United (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 9 QPR (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Leeds (H) Cardiff (A) Sunderland (H) Total points out of 15:​

Season average PPB:​

Automatic Promotion 2023/2024 - 96 2022/2023 - 91 2021/2022 - 88 Average: 91.6 PP 5 games: 10​

Play-Offs 2023/2024 - 73 2022/2023 - 69 2021/2022 - 75 Average: 72.3 PP 5 games: 8​

Safety 2023/2024 - 53 2022/2023 - 50 2021/2022 - 47 Average: 50 PP 5 games: 6​

Block 2 looks a bit tricky, Block 3 could be 3 home wins.

 

[Wallop]

Now the fixtures are out I have done the seasonal 5 game blocks. As always please let me know if you want anything added.
It's a little bit different than in recent years with the main focus on being survival rather than play offs. When you break it down, 6 points every 5 games does seem achievable.

2024/2025 Season​

Block 1 Norwich (H) 3 Coventry (A) 0 Blackburn (A) 0 PNE (H) 3 Stoke (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 2 Bristol City (A) Burnley (H) Luton (A) Pompey (A) WBA (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 3 Derby (H) Sunderland (A) Swansea (H) Hull (H) Watford (A) Total points out of 15:​
Block 4 Middlesbrough (H) Sheffield United (A) Millwall (H) Plymouth (A) QPR (A) Total points out of 15:​	Block 5 Sheffield Wednesday (H) Leeds (A) Cardiff (H) Plymouth (H) Millwall (A) Total points out of 15:​	Block 6 PNE (A) Blackburn (H) Luton (H) Stoke (A) Bristol City (H) Total points out of 15:​
Block 7 Burnley (A) Derby (A) Portsmouth (H) WBA (A) Coventry (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 8 Norwich (A) Hull (A) Watford (H) Middlesbrough (A) Sheffield United (H) Total points out of 15:​	Block 9 QPR (H) Sheffield Wednesday (A) Leeds (H) Cardiff (A) Sunderland (H) Total points out of 15:​

Season average PPB:​

Automatic Promotion 2023/2024 - 96 2022/2023 - 91 2021/2022 - 88 Average: 91.6 PP 5 games: 10​

Play-Offs 2023/2024 - 73 2022/2023 - 69 2021/2022 - 75 Average: 72.3 PP 5 games: 8​

Safety 2023/2024 - 53 2022/2023 - 50 2021/2022 - 47 Average: 50 PP 5 games: 6​

So are we binning Swansea (a)?

 

[Steve Gilbert]

So are we binning Swansea (a)?

It’s a stand alone game which is the reason why I left it out at this stage.

 

[Wallop]

It’s a stand alone game which is the reason why I left it out at this stage.

Bonus ball game

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Bonus ball game

It could be the game that results in either getting in the play offs or finishing mid table.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Bonus ball game

Edited the opening post for you.

 

[outsidethebox]

It could be the game that results in either getting in the play offs or finishing mid table.

Or winning the title!

 

[ttg17]

Block 2 looks a bit tricky, Block 3 could be 3 home wins.

Now that we're starting to get a lay of the land, agree that Block 2 looks perhaps the trickiest. Would be happy with 3 points from that lot to be honest. Bit of a shame, as it has the potential to dull our momentum a little. Block 7 also tough.

Good news is that Block 3 looks very doable. If that was our next set of 5 games, I could realistically see us picking up 8/9 points.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Now that we're starting to get a lay of the land, agree that Block 2 looks perhaps the trickiest. Would be happy with 3 points from that lot to be honest. Bit of a shame, as it has the potential to dull our momentum a little. Block 7 also tough.

Good news is that Block 3 looks very doable. If that was our next set of 5 games, I could realistically see us picking up 8/9 points.

I’d take 4-5 points from block 2. Bristol City will be tough but no reason we can’t get something from there, Luton are not doing too well this season. Burnley are a level above but we could frustrate. Pompey we could get something from and WBA, like Burnley, might be too strong from us.

 

[BristolOx]

9 points from block 1 was beyond my imagination. It usually takes 2 blocks to gauge where you might finish the season and you'd imagine block 2 is tougher.

Hoping for at least 6 points from block 2 looking at Bristol, Luton & Pompey but this -

WBA, like Burnley, might be too strong from us.

 

[RyanioBirdio]

These points totals regarding promotion, playoffs and safety are wrong IMO.

For example, 91 points would’ve been enough to secure second place last season, rather than the advertised 96. It just so happened that Ipswich got 96 points while finishing second, but that wasn’t the total required. Similarly, 81 points would’ve got you second place in 22/23, rather than the 91 points listed, and 83 points would’ve been enough for second in 21/22, rather than 88. You’re really looking for the points total achieved by the team that finished third, plus one point, rather than the total that the team finishing second happened to achieve.

Equally, you’re looking for the points tally achieved by the ‘best’ relegated side, plus one point, to calculate survival tallies. Last season Plymouth stayed up by one point with 51, but the original post says that 53 points was needed to stay up. In 22/23 45 points would’ve been enough, not 50, and in 21/22 just 38 points would’ve been enough as Peterborough went down in 22nd with 37 points. Looking at the Championship league tables from the past three seasons, it looks like this has all been calculated based on four teams being relegated from the division like in League One, rather than three, as all the ‘safety’ scores happen to match the points tallies of the teams who finished 20th.

Lastly, the playoffs last season required 71 instead of 73, while 21/22 also required 71 rather than 75, as again you’re looking for the points tally achieved by the team finishing seventh, plus one point.

 

[NorthWestOx]

I think you also need to go back at least 5 years in the Championship, and for the survival target, take into account points deductions.
50 points seems to be enough for survival most seasons.
71 points seems to be enough for play-offs, so win the remaining 20 home games, also win on Saturday, and we're there...

 

[Steve Gilbert]

I think you also need to go back at least 5 years in the Championship, and for the survival target, take into account points deductions.
50 points seems to be enough for survival most seasons.
71 points seems to be enough for play-offs, so win the remaining 20 home games, also win on Saturday, and we're there...

Even doing the average over the last 5 games the only thing that changes is the points per block for the play offs so rather than 8 points it goes up to 9.
To get to 50 points we need to average 1.11 points per game (that is over 45 as I'd like us to be safe before the last game of the season) and right now we are on 1.8 points per game.

 

[BristolOx]

I did the thing -

Here's old v new. Very similar numbers, does reduce the PP5G needed for both playoffs and safety by a point.

Old

Automatic Promotion	Play-Offs	Safety
2023/2024 - 96	2023/2024 - 73	2023/2024 - 53
2022/2023 - 91	2022/2023 - 69	2022/2023 - 50
2021/2022 - 88	2021/2022 - 75	2021/2022 - 47
2020/2021 - 91	2020/2021 - 77	2020/21 - 44
2019/2020 - 83	2019/2020 - 70	2019/2020 - 48
Average: 89.8 (90)	Average: 72.8 (73)	Average: 48.4 (49)
PP 5 games: 10	PP 5 games: 9	PP 5 games: 6

New

Automatic Promotion	Play-Offs	Safety
2023/2024 - 91	2023/2024 - 71	2023/2024 - 51
2022/2023 - 81	2022/2023 - 70	2022/2023 - 45
2021/2022 - 83	2021/2022 - 71	2021/2022 - 38
2020/2021 - 88	2020/2021 - 71	2020/21 - 44
2019/2020 - 82	2019/2020 - 70	2019/2020 - 49
Average: 85	Average: 70.6 (71)	Average: 45.4 (46)
PP 5 games: 9.23 (10)	PP 5 games: 7.71 (8)	PP 5 games: 5

 

[Foley]

A point a game to stay up on average.
So IF that is what's required,
W10 D 7/8 L 23 could see us stay up.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

A point a game to stay up on average.
So IF that is what's required,
W10 D 7/8 L 23 could see us stay up.

If we get to 50 points then we are safe and that should be the first aim.

 

[vcool]

For me The key moment always at Box 5 and 6. If we can get 35-40 points before Boxing Day, chance for survive is very big.

And during that moment ( Box 5 and 6 ) there will be some changes with us and other teams that will be affect the race. The winter transfer window will open on 1 January 2025 and close on Monday 3 February 2025 at 11pm.

But from some earlier matches that we have play, i have confident with Des and the squad. All the best for OUFC !!!

 

[Foley]

If we get to 50 points then we are safe and that should be the first aim.

Not last year we wouldn't have been. We would have needed 51.
In all likelihood 47 points will be enough.
50 points will almost always give you a margin for error, but not every season.

 

[Emilio]

For me The key moment always at Box 5 and 6. If we can get 35-40 points before Boxing Day, chance for survive is very big.

And during that moment ( Box 5 and 6 ) there will be some changes with us and other teams that will be affect the race. The winter transfer window will open on 1 January 2025 and close on Monday 3 February 2025 at 11pm.

But from some earlier matches that we have play, i have confident with Des and the squad. All the best for OUFC !!!

35-40 points by Boxing Day is very ambitious. Only 6 teams had managed that amount last season, and all-but-one of them finished in the playoffs/automatic promotion places. Personally, I would be be happy to see us upwards of 25 points, though (as you see below) Birmingham had 27 at that point and still went down, while QPR only had 20 and managed to survive.

Last season's table at Christmas:

 

[SSO]

Played 5 points 9
The longer we can keep that 4 points (or more) gap between the fames played and points won the better.
I would be happy to float between 7th and 15th all season. The difficulty is winning away every now and then. Those are the big wins. I think a lot of teams in this league play for a draw without playing for a draw if that makes sense.

 

[Marked Ox]

35-40 points by Boxing Day is very ambitious. Only 6 teams had managed that amount last season, and all-but-one of them finished in the playoffs/automatic promotion places. Personally, I would be be happy to see us upwards of 25 points, though (as you see below) Birmingham had 27 at that point and still went down, while QPR only had 20 and managed to survive.

Last season's table at Christmas:

View attachment 22825

Tbf there is the Wayne Rooney anchor on Birmingham's total.

 

[Emilio]

Played 5 points 9
The longer we can keep that 4 points (or more) gap between the fames played and points won the better.
I would be happy to float between 7th and 15th all season. The difficulty is winning away every now and then. Those are the big wins. I think a lot of teams in this league play for a draw without playing for a draw if that makes sense.

This season will consist of the ones we COULD have taken a point from away, and the ones we SHOULD have taken at least a point from away. Case and point, Coventry and Blackburn. Could have scraped a point at Cov, and played so well that we almost (barring an unfortunate stoppage time error) did, while Blackburn were nowhere near as tough an opposition, and not taking a point from that match (particularly having been in the lead) was criminal.

 

[Foley]

Played 5 points 9
The longer we can keep that 4 points (or more) gap between the fames played and points won the better.
I would be happy to float between 7th and 15th all season. The difficulty is winning away every now and then. Those are the big wins. I think a lot of teams in this league play for a draw without playing for a draw if that makes sense.

Agree.
We need to get 3 to 4 away wins and pickup a few draws.
Plymouth won 3 times away last season and drew 7 ( 10 home wins and 5 draws)

 

[Emilio]

Then you also have that aspect as to who those away wins/draws are against. Against a team rivaling for survival, those become 6 pointers. Against the "bigger teams", those can be counted as freebies, as most other teams at the lower end of the table won't be getting points at your Hawthorns, Bramall Lanes, Elland Roads, etc.

A lot of maths that can go into it

 

[Steve Gilbert]

While 2 good points against Burnley and Luton, we really need to get a win on Saturday as I’m not sure I can see us getting much against West Brom.
Saying that, 1 more point in this current block means over 10 games we are doing enough to stay up.

 

[BristolOx]

While 2 good points against Burnley and Luton, we really need to get a win on Saturday as I’m not sure I can see us getting much against West Brom.
Saying that, 1 more point in this current block means over 10 games we are doing enough to stay up.

Unless you use the recalculated metric which means we're already doing enough

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Unless you use the recalculated metric which means we're already doing enough

Always best to set targets higher than actually required

 

[Isle of Wight Yellow]

The funny thing about football is we’d have been better off not getting the luck against Burnley, and conceding a couple, but then having one more of our many chances tonight go in. As it is, we’ve got one point less than we would have in that scenario but feel good about a couple of games undefeated.