- Year of First Game
- 1998
EFL Championship: 11th - 12th March
- Thread starter Carpy
- Start date
Eric Blair
Level: Dave Roberts
(176 Apps, 8 Gls)
I like it here. Don’t make me go back to League One. Please.
christenedinjericho
Level: Chris Maguire
(79 Apps, 22 Gls)
I have been saying for what seems like an age that we have had far too many on this forum who were taking draws from all angles before the players had even eaten their pre match pasta and popped their shin pads on.
Of course, I know that saying this for every f*cking game doesn't actually affect what actually happens on the pitch but some of the draw merchants on this forum may now be tightening their pyjamas up a little more tighter from this evening onwards.
The next two weeks will see the movers and the shakers come to the fore and I believe we need 4 pts by 5 o'clock Saturday as an absolute minimum with Middlesbrough away awaiting United next.
However, as GR said, we cannot flip saying we should win this one and lose or draw that one - to then seeing Pompey beat Leeds, Derby whacking in 6 big points with L'on claiming 3 pts as well closing the bottom 7 in very very quickly in just 96 hrs from our Friday night match at Norwich.
And who was the poster who said Sheff Wed were going to roll over with nothing to play for? Thrashed Plymouth and then come from behind at Norwich to win with us to go there in a few weeks!
It will be tight and I'm sure the draw posters will now be saying that they will again be happy with finishing 21st but will they all be at Cardiff if this is the one that maybe seals our deal?
I'm not in the least flapping.....I've always stated that you cannot engineer results to suit your agenda as you should always play to win. Incredibly, GR has now come out with this too, and no doubt, the rest of the draw selectors will now no doubt, all agree.
COYY'S and lets go for it tomorrow.
uptheus
Level: Paul Moody
(197 Apps, 75 Gls)
A lot has changed!
OX14
Level: Les Phillips
(224 Apps, 15 Gls)
46 still could be enough .The only surprising result tonight is Derby. Maybe Coventry's luck of winning late and being gifted goals has worn out.
Cardiff on the other hand I could see them losing to Luton, Cardiff were the worse team I've seen us play this season bar Plymouth. They are in big big trouble.
3 points for us tomorrow night changes it all and we will be back 7 points clear. Time for Rowett to play on the front foot and actually try and win. Something we haven't done since we haven't been flirting with the relegation places.
Steve Gilbert
Level: Paul Moody
(197 Apps, 75 Gls)
Yet we have more points than both in our last 36 matches.
I’d also say Cardiff really don’t have a very nice fixture list for the remainder of the season.
We need 6 points which is more than achievable from games against Hull, Watford, Cardiff, QPR, Sheffield Weds and Swansea.
Victor1986
Level: Andy Crosby
(122 Apps, 13 Gls)
Goal difference will be the factor. Two teams below us have a better GD. Our lack of a goal scorer will unfortunately be the reason we might not survive.
SirAndyOfCrosby
Level: Dave Langan
(136 Apps, 3 Gls)
uptheus
Level: Paul Moody
(197 Apps, 75 Gls)
Of course it might, but I think with the recent results for Derby & Luton may mean the needle has moved nearer to 50 points e.g. 48/49 points rather than 45/46
Last edited:
werthersoriginal
Level: James Constable
(280 Apps, 106 Gls)
I think he’s right in a way, we knew that teams below us would win games and one would probably go on a run. We were never going to ensure staying up simply by putting everyone behind the ball like we’re Morecambe.
Village-Yellow
Level: Steve Basham
(189 Apps, 51 Gls)
The impact of what happened tonight will be defined by our result tomorrow.
If we fail to win, materially things have got more squeaky.
OX14
Level: Les Phillips
(224 Apps, 15 Gls)
Possibly Derby will hit that number with their remaining games but Luton have a harder run in. It's still in our hands and we need to start winning games, no excuses.
Steve Gilbert
Level: Paul Moody
(197 Apps, 75 Gls)
I just hope the players have a bit more fight in them than some of our fans.
uptheus
Level: Paul Moody
(197 Apps, 75 Gls)
Don’t think that’s going to happen, especially as it’s not in Rowett’s make-up.
uptheus
Level: Paul Moody
(197 Apps, 75 Gls)
FFS, it’s all what if’s etc, but all I’m saying is that I believe it may mean higher points are required than were thought a week ago or so.
uptheus
Level: Paul Moody
(197 Apps, 75 Gls)
We rode a luck with the result the other night, but if we’re honest we didn’t look like scoring in open play and haven’t really looked like it over the last 6 or 7 games which for me is a concern.
Just hoping we can have a spell of good results again
Yellows1
Level: Callum O'Dowda
(106 Apps, 14 Gls)
Well it needs to be!
I also hope they have a bit less complacency than some of our fans!
Victor1986
Level: Andy Crosby
(122 Apps, 13 Gls)
Yeah - 52
TailsWeWin
Level: Dave Roberts
(176 Apps, 8 Gls)
“Fight”?? Isn’t it about time you ALSO woke up and got real, like many on here are now doing?
It’s nothing to do with “fight” - it’s simply being realistic about our situation.
Which is increasingly precarious.
I suppose you think your comments entitle you to the high ground?
uptheus
Level: Paul Moody
(197 Apps, 75 Gls)
Get to bed mate, especially as you’ve got kindergarten in the morning.
uptheus
Level: Paul Moody
(197 Apps, 75 Gls)
Agree, but I always want to set-up to play on the front foot and only really go out and play defensively when you’re under the cosh e.g. a bit like Pompey did against Leeds at the weekend. They certainly didn’t set-up to go for a draw. Win your home games, draw the away ones and you’ll be there or thereabouts!
carefreeoufc
Level: Callum O'Dowda
(106 Apps, 14 Gls)
I still think we’re nailed on for 45. Whether that’s enough, who knows. I suspect probably not. No point revelling in it, we’ve got a small cushion and it’s up to the players and management to keep it that way.
I wouldn’t blame Jan, I’d probably go back to the summer. I don’t believe Currie would have offered anything to produce more points. We’ve lacked goals from our forwards. We brought in Romeny, Mills and Bradshaw to try to reignite a failing forward line.
Perhaps Jerome is right and the reason we have the likes of Phillips, Placheta, Sibley, Dembele, El Miz, is because it’s the best we could hope for. I’m not sure, I don’t play enough football manager to know who’s tearing up the Nigerian equivalent of the Isthmian League. That said, our list of top scorers speaks for itself (and I’m not just referring to Harris).
It’s in our hands and we’re going to have to rely on some decent home form against some very good teams plus a bit of smash and grab. Complacency not an option.
I wouldn’t blame Jan, I’d probably go back to the summer. I don’t believe Currie would have offered anything to produce more points. We’ve lacked goals from our forwards. We brought in Romeny, Mills and Bradshaw to try to reignite a failing forward line.
Perhaps Jerome is right and the reason we have the likes of Phillips, Placheta, Sibley, Dembele, El Miz, is because it’s the best we could hope for. I’m not sure, I don’t play enough football manager to know who’s tearing up the Nigerian equivalent of the Isthmian League. That said, our list of top scorers speaks for itself (and I’m not just referring to Harris).
It’s in our hands and we’re going to have to rely on some decent home form against some very good teams plus a bit of smash and grab. Complacency not an option.
And with good reason away from home.
First 10 away games:
W:0 D:2 L:8
Points: 2
Clean sheets: 0
Goals for: 7 Goals against: 22
Last 8 away games under Rowett
W:1 D:5 L:2
Points: 8
Clean sheets: 3
Goals for: 4. Goals against: 6
Tightening up and playing the percentages away has been a big reason we're not already half way down. A draw tomorrow would be ok. A win would be massive. Lose and it'll raise the pressure a fair few bars.
Sensible caution and concern here but really no need to panic. However, a really bad performance or if we get hammered tomorrow and things could feel different
Last edited:
Steve Gilbert
Level: Paul Moody
(197 Apps, 75 Gls)
We have scored 3 goals in the last 2 games. It doesn’t matter how they go in.We rode a luck with the result the other night, but if we’re honest we didn’t look like scoring in open play and haven’t really looked like it over the last 6 or 7 games which for me is a concern.
Just hoping we can have a spell of good results again
I don’t think anyone is complacent? Some are just a bit more relaxed about the situation right now.
Get real? I am more than aware that we could get dragged into a real relegation fight if we don’t pick up a few points soon but, I am also not going to start wetting the bed when we are 4 points clear (could be 7 by tomorrow night) with 10 (9 games after tomorrow) left to play. Especially when we have teams to play where we can certainly pick up points against.
The games we have lost, apart from Pompey, have all been against top 6 sides. We have picked up points against mid table/lower half teams.
uptheus
Level: Paul Moody
(197 Apps, 75 Gls)
I’d say one goal in open play e.g. the Romeny goal, but the other 2 were effectively from set pieces (corner & throw in).
I know the all count and I’ll take a 1-0 win tomorrow from a set pieces, but I just feel our general build up play as dipped and we rarely look like scoring in open/flowing play which doesn’t give me hope/belief and raises concern.
Bicester Yellow
Level: Dave Roberts
(176 Apps, 8 Gls)
1 point minimum is needed tomorrow night
Followed by 3 on Saturday, otherwise we will be looking nervously over our shoulders.
We have to go for it tomorrow, no point not attacking these games now. You have to play with the shackles off, not playing to not lose.
Here’s hoping we start tomorrow night
Followed by 3 on Saturday, otherwise we will be looking nervously over our shoulders.
We have to go for it tomorrow, no point not attacking these games now. You have to play with the shackles off, not playing to not lose.
Here’s hoping we start tomorrow night
Scotchegg
Level: James Constable
(280 Apps, 106 Gls)
However, not losing has to be the first priority which means that a little caution is also needed.
Under Des at times we were too naive, going for wins when we could have held on for more points. Rowett is far more pragmatic and is often safety first. But from here on we need to go into every game with a point that we are determined not to lose, and then look to turn this into three.
Bicester Yellow
Level: Dave Roberts
(176 Apps, 8 Gls)
We don’t have the ability to turn the tide in games unfortunately & we get bogged down in just trying not to lose, we have seen it many times this season and we’ve picked us some points but we’ve also dropped some & we’ve started games in that fashion at home also.
You can’t go into games trying not to lose, it just asks for trouble.
If we do that tomorrow and sit back we will get beat, they will be bang up for it, so we will need to be as well.
Rowett is going to have to earn his survival bonus in the next 10 games. That’s for sure.
To put your mind at rest a bit. In the last ten seasons there's only been one year where 52 points were needed to stay up - that was the 16/17 season. That year the club in 22nd place at the 37 game mark were Bristol City on 38 points, 3 more than Derby are on now. That was an extremely unusual season with loads of teams picking up points late on and a number of big clubs in the dogfight. But even in that freak year Forest survived after being on 40 points at the 37 game mark - the same as we'll be on if we pick up a point tomorrow.
More generally over the last 10 seasons the only other time 50+ points were required was last season. Again, at the 37 game mark the club in 22nd were on 38 points, 3 more than Derby now.
I use this metric for comparison because when it comes to league football there are so many permutations, interrelated impacts etc. that using the 'team in 22nd total' at any late stage of the season cuts through the noise a bit and acts as a better proxy for the overall standard of the crappiest teams that season. Individual teams will hit form and escape, some will drop off, some will hover near the bottom but muddle through on occasional away draws and a few home wins. It evens out. Just a few points advantage at this stage is more significant than it might feel as a fan looking mainly at individual results.
It's entirely possible that this season will break past patterns of course but for the relegation mark to be 50+ points this season it would mean a bunch of teams all hitting form at the same time and sharing points among themselves in a distribution that's not happened in recent memory.
The average number of points for the team finishing in the 3rd relegation spot over the last 10 seasons is 43.2. So on average 44 is enough. This season the points average for teams in the bottom six is slightly (and I mean slightly) below the historic average at this stage.
The closest comparison season to this one is 22/23 where Blackpool looked almost identical to Derby at the same stage of the season (Played 37, 35 points, -15 goal difference, 22nd place, just picked up an unexpected good result). Loads of the usual ups and downs followed but the season ended with 45 points being enough.
Which is all very well but let's make this irrelevant. Our performances have been on the up. 4 points in the next 2 games would be great but I have a feeling Rowett will be looking for six. Bring it on.
Last edited:
