National News Budget 2024

[Village-Yellow]

I don't disagree but this isn't the specific point you made that I was responding to.

Edit: you've gone from 'boo labour' house prices are going to rise to 'boo labour' house prices are going to fall in three posts.

Fair do's.

Haha, not sure how I have managed that.

But maybe any ambiguity you saw in my posts is because from a very personal perspective, and certainly after the budget, I am not boo Labour any more than I am pro Labour. I remain sat on the fence sincerely hoping they can deliver a better UK Plc

I have no personal concerns if the housing market takes a hit (I have no intention of selling any properties) and mortgages are insignificant, should interest rates come under more pressure. Rent yields remain as strong as ever, so I am really not sure I am the sort of individual Labour were looking to protect, but I certainly feel I have dodged a bullet.

But if we are talking ambiguity, how is it that hikes in SDLT is a good thing in your opinion, yet mortgage interest rates rises are not? Assuming they both serve to add deflationary pressures to the housing market, which is what you appear to be advocating? Years of abnormally low interest rates has driven the housing market for over a decade, so if it is house price falls you are after, higher interest rates will help.

 

[bashamwonderland]

No it won't. It will deflated the housing market in exactly the same way the relief scheme inflated it. The only beneficiaries of the scheme is the house builders. Seriously, it's basic economics!

Sorry but the housing market will not deflate enough (if it even deflated at all, which it won't!) to offset the increase in SDLT for first time buyers buying between 300k and 400k (I.e. most in the South East).

You keep talking about "basic economics" this evening, without any apparent thought for anything other than "supply and demand". You said earlier about page one of an economics textbook - try reading beyond page one.

 

[SteMerritt]

first time buyers buying between 300k and 400k (I.e. most in the South East).

Where are you getting that price range from? You can get 1-bed houses (a likely purchase for a first-time buyer) for under 200k in Thame, which isn't a cheap place to buy. 2 bed houses in Bicester for under 300k (I'm looking on Zoopla), so isn't saying most first time buyers in South East over-egging it a bit? London I'd think for sure, but outside of the capital it shouldn't be so bad.

People trying to move from their first house will definitely fit your statement though which would be a concern as you would more than likely catch out people needing more room to start a family.

 

[bashamwonderland]

Where are you getting that price range from? You can get 1-bed houses (a likely purchase for a first-time buyer) for under 200k in Thame, which isn't a cheap place to buy. 2 bed houses in Bicester for under 300k (I'm looking on Zoopla), so isn't saying most first time buyers in South East over-egging it a bit? London I'd think for sure, but outside of the capital it shouldn't be so bad.

People trying to move from their first house will definitely fit your statement though which would be a concern as you would more than likely catch out people needing more room to start a family.

Personal experience, given I am in first time buyer age range and have lots of first time buyer friends around the South East. Other than flats, and a few mates in Carterton, none of them have spent less than £300k.

My first time purchase was £405k.

 

[SteMerritt]

Personal experience, given I am in first time buyer age range and have lots of first time buyer friends around the South East. Other than flats, and a few mates in Carterton, none of them have spent less than £300k.

My first time purchase was £405k.

Blimey, my first one was 35k

Guess it depends on what you are going for, there seems to be 1 bed availability for well under the 300k bar.

 

[bashamwonderland]

Blimey, my first one was 35k

Guess it depends on what you are going for, there seems to be 1 bed availability for well under the 300k bar.

True. There are plenty of working people in London. I'm sure you'd struggle to get anything under 300k there, even a flat?

I'm struggling to see how the SDLT changes are anything other than bad news for first timers!

£35k!? That's lower than our deposit. You wouldn't want to know what our monthly mortgage payments are

 

[SteMerritt]

True. There are plenty of working people in London. I'm sure you'd struggle to get anything under 300k there, even a flat?

I'm struggling to see how the SDLT changes are anything other than bad news for first timers!

£35k!? That's lower than our deposit. You wouldn't want to know what our monthly mortgage payments are

We were lucky getting a foot on the bottom rung of the ladder just after the housing crash in the mid 90s, a 1-bed ground floor maisonette. But it was ours and we loved it. I don't envy first time buyers these days.

 

[Manorlounger]

The basic laws of supply and demand dictate that increases in stamp duty does not push up house prices it suppresses them.

If you can afford £300k to buy a house and the other guy £299k the house will sell for £300k less the stamp duty payable because that it the maximum either of you can afford. The highest the stamp duty the lower the price of the house. Page one of any economics textbook.

Utter nonsense.

 

[QR]

Sorry but the housing market will not deflate enough (if it even deflated at all, which it won't!) to offset the increase in SDLT for first time buyers buying between 300k and 400k (I.e. most in the South East).

You keep talking about "basic economics" this evening, without any apparent thought for anything other than "supply and demand". You said earlier about page one of an economics textbook - try reading beyond page one.

Because we were talking about the impact of a specific aspect of the budget. Not if Israel bomb Iranian oil refineries, not if Trump win the is election and implements his madcap ideas, not the negative impact the trade deal with Australia, not if Thames Water goes bust.

 

[QR]

Utter nonsense.

Go on.

 

[werthersoriginal]

We were lucky getting a foot on the bottom rung of the ladder just after the housing crash in the mid 90s, a 1-bed ground floor maisonette. But it was ours and we loved it. I don't envy first time buyers these days.

I bought my first house after that crash, a two up two down that the surveyor said was ‘of somewhat inferior construction’, 57K. But it stayed up and was a good home for nearly ten years.

 

[Village-Yellow]

I bought my first house after that crash, a two up two down that the surveyor said was ‘of somewhat inferior construction’, 57K. But it stayed up and was a good home for nearly ten years.

Must have been a new build then

 

[Osei Yaw]

Personal experience, given I am in first time buyer age range and have lots of first time buyer friends around the South East. Other than flats, and a few mates in Carterton, none of them have spent less than £300k.

My first time purchase was £405k.

Yeah but it all used to be much harder years ago. Kids these days don't know they're born.

 

[werthersoriginal]

Must have been a new build then

A new build in 1890!

 

[Village-Yellow]

I'm not too upset with the budget. This is the IFS's analysis Its pretty brutal as they were for the last lot. I dislike the SDLT increase for second home owners only because a Land Value Tax would be much better. Taxing employers NI more i'm not a fan of but lowering the amount it kicked in seems sensible. Good to see increases in minimum wage and something done about the agricultural land tax dodge.

Sorry… but this is a completely ignorant comment..

£1m is useless in the context of your family farmer.

 

[LowerSouth]

Harry Metcalfe explains the failings in Rachel Reeves reasoning in imposing a £1M IHT starting threshold for farmers

 

[Peterdev]

Rachel Reeves is really coming across as someone who hasn’t thought things through properly in her budget.
On South Today, charities and in particular hospices are to be subjected to increases in NI contributions for employers.
This may, like removing fuel allowances for pensioners come back and haunt them
As for Pension Credit they missed an opportunity to reform it and m bring about some simplification to it

 

[The Voice Of Reason]

So going back to my much earlier point re this budget will harm business investment, and business investment pays more tax

Today primark said it was pulling money from.Uk future investment to spend it abroad.

M and S, Sainsbury and Lidl said it will raise inflation and slow their investment plans.

Asda with it debt mountain has warned re future pay rises to quell staff expectations.

So going back to my point this is not a budget for growth and 22 billion is a small % of average government spend. As growth funds future tax increases poor judgement

 

[holdsteady]

So going back to my much earlier point re this budget will harm business investment, and business investment pays more tax

Today primark said it was pulling money from.Uk future investment to spend it abroad.

M and S, Sainsbury and Lidl said it will raise inflation and slow their investment plans.

Asda with it debt mountain has warned re future pay rises to quell staff expectations.

So going back to my point this is not a budget for growth and 22 billion is a small % of average government spend. As growth funds future tax increases poor judgement

Wouldn’t it be more surprising if these big employers said they were happy to pay out more?

 

[Scotchegg]

So going back to my much earlier point re this budget will harm business investment, and business investment pays more tax

Today primark said it was pulling money from.Uk future investment to spend it abroad.

Primark said that they may invest more outside the UK. They also made £1.9bn in profit last year.

M and S, Sainsbury and Lidl said it will raise inflation and slow their investment plans.

M&S had pre-tax profits of £408m for the last 6 months. Sainsbury's has pre-tax profits of around £350m. Lidl have had reduced profits but this has been due to increased capital expenditure for a few years.

Asda with it debt mountain has warned re future pay rises to quell staff expectations.

Asda recorded profits of £1.08bn in 2023.

I have sympathy with small businesses, but some of those criticising thr changes in the budget are already making a s**t-tonne of profit and can afford to provide for their staff beyond the previous minimal wage and contribute a little more.