National News Budget 2024

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I don't think we can blame all of the NHS's problems on "foreigners".

'Eck! 'Without'. Will go back and edit!

 

[Matty Greens Left Boot]

The NHS would collapse without 'foreigners'. Is that what you want?

Yes because it isn't sustainable to just import labour. Who will look after those immigrants when they get sick more immigrants.

 

[Basham Wonderland]

The NHS would collapse without 'foreigners'. Is that what you want?

It is collapsing with "foreigners".

Let me dust off my favourite set of statistics...

"To keep up with the number of arrivals (around 600,000 net) - to cater for the demand caused by all these extra people, we need 12 new hospitals (and 66 GP surgeries) along with 15,000 new NHS employees, every year."

 

[Eric Blair]

Have to say that I don’t think pay more tax to bring more foreigners in is much of a vote winner, I won’t be putting a fiver on for you as the next PM.

That’s fair. But I’m also not really arguing against you. Just saying that taxes are important to build the services we all need. I don’t know your own situation- whether you have kids that go to school or an elderly relative that needs care or health support. Taxes pay for that stuff so higher taxes isn’t necessarily a bad thing especially with an older population like we have. Making Britain a nice place to live after years of crippling austerity shouldn’t be a controversial point.

Also what should be a non controversial point is that we need to attract skilled people to the UK. We need to fight against a brain drain of our most talented, skilled and entrepreneurial people and also attract those who are similar from other countries. Yes, a competitive tax regime is part of that but talented people won’t move to a place that doesn’t have a strong and well funded civic society.

 

[Eric Blair]

There’s an argument for taxing companies less. They have been denied chances to invest because of Covid. Now profits are starting to rise their chances to invest in future growth is choked off

That’s the nub of it. And I suppose it’s about getting the balance right. If it was easy then it would have been done

 

[Eric Blair]

Yes because it isn't sustainable to just import labour. Who will look after those immigrants when they get sick more immigrants.

We have an aging population (the boomer generation) and that puts pressure on services rather than immigration (although I agree we need strong borders which we don’t have).

 

[Eric Blair]

It is collapsing with "foreigners".

Let me dust off my favourite set of statistics...

"To keep up with the number of arrivals (around 600,000 net) - to cater for the demand caused by all these extra people, we need 12 new hospitals (and 66 GP surgeries) along with 15,000 new NHS employees, every year."

Thanks Basham. Again not being snide but where is that stat from. Genuinely interested

 

[Matty Greens Left Boot]

Also following trump's election Europe needs to look after itself more it's a world of survival of the fittest. I'm disappointed there wasn't massive defence spending increase both in our budget and throughout Europe. For too long Europe has relied on the US taxpayer to pay for Europe's peace. The US spends about 3.5% of GDP on defence even with a relatively small land border (not counting Canada). The EU/ Europe needs to spend at least that probably much more because our neighbours aren't quite as friendly and we have a bigger migration issue. It's one area I agree with trump the freeloaders of Europe needs to pay for their defence and Ukraine's not rely on NATO (basically the US).

 

[Basham Wonderland]

Thanks Basham. Again not being snide but where is that stat from. Genuinely interested

Back in August I set out:

We have 1,148 hospitals, which is about 1 per 50,000 people.

A net increase in the population of 620,000 people would need 12 new hospitals (and 66 GP surgeries) along with 15,000 NEW NHS employees, every year, just to service new arrivals into the country and maintain current healthcare capacity.

The figures are also based on how many NHS employees we have per person in the country, so they are indicative of the level of employment needed in the NHS to service demand.

Figures obviously only true to Summer 2024 and picture will develop as immigration numbers fluctuate.

These figures tend to be very helpful when someone is in danger of throwing out a lazy "if you control immigration you damage the NHS" argument.

 

[Village-Yellow]

That’s the nub of it. And I suppose it’s about getting the balance right. If it was easy then it would have been done

But Labour have said they are not going to shy away from the difficult decisions.

If this was something they felt they wanted to do, i am assuming they would have found a way.

As it stands they have targeted businesses to plug this “black hole” as well as their own expenditure increases.

 

[holdsteady]

That’s fair. But I’m also not really arguing against you. Just saying that taxes are important to build the services we all need. I don’t know your own situation- whether you have kids that go to school or an elderly relative that needs care or health support. Taxes pay for that stuff so higher taxes isn’t necessarily a bad thing especially with an older population like we have. Making Britain a nice place to live after years of crippling austerity shouldn’t be a controversial point.

Also what should be a non controversial point is that we need to attract skilled people to the UK. We need to fight against a brain drain of our most talented, skilled and entrepreneurial people and also attract those who are similar from other countries. Yes, a competitive tax regime is part of that but talented people won’t move to a place that doesn’t have a strong and well funded civic society.

A lot of talented people move to countries like Dubai which are the opposite of what you say, high wage but very low tax, you have to pay for everything. People move abroad for higher wages, you don't get many people from the UK moving to Sweden (obviously be the odd exception) for instance, I have never heard anyone say they are going abroad because of high tax, its because they will earn more money, better job prospects (and in people leaving the UKs case) for better weather, but not because they will lose more from their pay check.

Also we have had record high immigration for years now, we have two main parties who are pro mass immigration (the Tories have just elected a leader who is on record as that) so that's not going to change, so what does that say about the huge numbers of people that we have bought in that they are not what we actually needed? We have added to the stresses on the state at a greater rate than solving them.

Not actually advocating for a Dubai like system, have always paid tax and believe in a health system (of some sort, plenty of discussion to be had on what form that takes) etc but as has been pointed out on here by others the immigrants are needed to keep up with demand for services argument is a load of bunkum as they are the ones driving the increase in demand.

Until you have a sensible immigration policy that takes into account all of the nuances involved in keeping a country going but also not destroying the country people are emigrating into then just saying immigration good is not true, using immigration to give GDP a short term bump and to create a cheap workforce for the very wealthy is not a good thing for anyone if it brings down the standard of living for the vast majority.

Obviously I am a peculiar middle aged (is 45 middle aged?) man with awful opinions though according to the Independent.

 

[LowerSouth]

We have an aging population (the boomer generation) and that puts pressure on services rather than immigration (although I agree we need strong borders which we don’t have).

So “boomers “ are the root of the problems in the health system .?

 

[Scotchegg]

It is collapsing with "foreigners".

Let me dust off my favourite set of statistics...

"To keep up with the number of arrivals (around 600,000 net) - to cater for the demand caused by all these extra people, we need 12 new hospitals (and 66 GP surgeries) along with 15,000 new NHS employees, every year."

That set of statistics only works if everyone needs equal access to health provisions.

Unfortunately, I've spent far more time in hospitals and GP surgeries than I would have liked over the last 18 months for myself and my family. The reality is that the vast majority of those that I see in both are the elderly.

Now of course anyone arriving will eventually get old, or start families, and both will increase demand on our public services, but that is not the case from day one.

Sudden large increases in population do have an impact, but its not as simple as equating population to need and therefore statistics that you show are unhelpful.

 

[holdsteady]

That set of statistics only works if everyone needs equal access to health provisions.

Unfortunately, I've spent far more time in hospitals and GP surgeries than I would have liked over the last 18 months for myself and my family. The reality is that the vast majority of those that I see in both are the elderly.

Now of course anyone arriving will eventually get old, or start families, and both will increase demand on our public services, but that is not the case from day one.

Sudden large increases in population do have an impact, but its not as simple as equating population to need and therefore statistics that you show are unhelpful.

That’s just kicking the can down the road, bring in large numbers of people to solve today’s problems, create a larger problem for tomorrow.

 

[werthersoriginal]

That set of statistics only works if everyone needs equal access to health provisions.

Unfortunately, I've spent far more time in hospitals and GP surgeries than I would have liked over the last 18 months for myself and my family. The reality is that the vast majority of those that I see in both are the elderly.

Now of course anyone arriving will eventually get old, or start families, and both will increase demand on our public services, but that is not the case from day one.

Sudden large increases in population do have an impact, but its not as simple as equating population to need and therefore statistics that you show are unhelpful.

Yes a lot of the demand is people living longer, people being fat, and more things being treatable - not Somalians with broken arms. Immigrants tend to be young and will have babies, but the alternative is a falling population and a lack of workers. It's hardly a simple subject.

 

[Gregortheox]

I suppose it’s a supply vs demand thing.
We need immigration to a point in order to help the NHS, but at the same time we need to have a controlled approach to manage the demand for the service.
Common grown up sense isn’t it?

 

[SteMerritt]

That’s just kicking the can down the road, bring in large numbers of people to solve today’s problems, create a larger problem for tomorrow.

That is presuming that any foreign nationals who come over here in their younger years stay here and don't return home. I'm sure someone will be able to supply stats which will say if this happens or not.

 

[Basham Wonderland]

That set of statistics only works if everyone needs equal access to health provisions.

Unfortunately, I've spent far more time in hospitals and GP surgeries than I would have liked over the last 18 months for myself and my family. The reality is that the vast majority of those that I see in both are the elderly.

Now of course anyone arriving will eventually get old, or start families, and both will increase demand on our public services, but that is not the case from day one.

Sudden large increases in population do have an impact, but its not as simple as equating population to need and therefore statistics that you show are unhelpful.

This isn't a sudden increase, we've been at net +500,000 for like over a decade (correction I think it's more like 300,000 - 500,000 but will have to check) Coincidentally the service has crumbled in that time.

And yes, everyone arriving will eventually get old. So if all the new arrivals are spritely young healthy things (I have no idea if that is the case, perhaps you know the demographic breakdown?), the problem of mass immigration is still a massive ticking time bomb.

So actually my numbers are perfectly helpful, because they show what we should be doing now to prepare for how bad it's going to get when our 500,000 healthy new arrivals get older.

 

[holdsteady]

Yes a lot of the demand is people living longer, people being fat, and more things being treatable - not Somalians with broken arms. Immigrants tend to be young and will have babies, but the alternative is a falling population and a lack of workers. It's hardly a simple subject.

You have, in Somalians, chosen the people who take the most out while contributing the least according to statistics so a Somalian with a broken arm is statistically likely to be on benefits, or live in a house we here people are. So they are costing us money while we also have to treat them, real win there.

Immigrants, age, get ill, have children etc just like the rest of the population, saying they are young now isn’t really a solution to the problem, they are adding to the problem that they are supposedly coming to solve.

We could just go and get our own takeaways for instance rather than have people come into the country for that vital role.

 

[Scotchegg]

This isn't a sudden increase, we've been at net +500,000 for like over a decade (correction I think it's more like 300,000 - 500,000 but will have to check) Coincidentally the service has crumbled in that time.

And yes, everyone arriving will eventually get old. So if all the new arrivals are spritely young healthy things (I have no idea if that is the case, perhaps you know the demographic breakdown?), the problem of mass immigration is still a massive ticking time bomb.

So actually my numbers are perfectly helpful, because they show what we should be doing now to prepare for how bad it's going to get when our 500,000 healthy new arrivals get older.

The last decade also saw the Tories mismanaging finances needed within public services, leaving them crippled.

Maybe that's the coincidence that is more relevant.

Your numbers are nothing but blaming our failings in this country on one section without any evidence to support that by your own admission.

That is the bit that is unhelpful, or worse.

 

[Eric Blair]

So “boomers “ are the root of the problems in the health system .?

No, I didn’t say that. We have an older population which naturally puts more pressure on the health system. These people have contributed all their lives to that system and deserve high quality care. To get that high quality care we need to pay for it.

 

[Eric Blair]

A lot of talented people move to countries like Dubai which are the opposite of what you say, high wage but very low tax, you have to pay for everything. People move abroad for higher wages, you don't get many people from the UK moving to Sweden (obviously be the odd exception) for instance, I have never heard anyone say they are going abroad because of high tax, its because they will earn more money, better job prospects (and in people leaving the UKs case) for better weather, but not because they will lose more from their pay check.

Also we have had record high immigration for years now, we have two main parties who are pro mass immigration (the Tories have just elected a leader who is on record as that) so that's not going to change, so what does that say about the huge numbers of people that we have bought in that they are not what we actually needed? We have added to the stresses on the state at a greater rate than solving them.

Not actually advocating for a Dubai like system, have always paid tax and believe in a health system (of some sort, plenty of discussion to be had on what form that takes) etc but as has been pointed out on here by others the immigrants are needed to keep up with demand for services argument is a load of bunkum as they are the ones driving the increase in demand.

Until you have a sensible immigration policy that takes into account all of the nuances involved in keeping a country going but also not destroying the country people are emigrating into then just saying immigration good is not true, using immigration to give GDP a short term bump and to create a cheap workforce for the very wealthy is not a good thing for anyone if it brings down the standard of living for the vast majority.

Obviously I am a peculiar middle aged (is 45 middle aged?) man with awful opinions though according to the Independent.

I suspect there is more we’d agree on than disagree. If I was an entrepreneur (and I like to think of myself as decently skilled) I would prefer to set up a business and live in Sweden than Dubai which has a huge and horrible inequality problem.

I agree entirely with your fourth paragraph and want robust borders but humane. At the moment we have neither it seems. But yes importating cheap labour to depress wages is not where we want to be as an economy.

I am a fellow perculiar middle aged man.

 

[Eric Blair]

Yes a lot of the demand is people living longer, people being fat, and more things being treatable - not Somalians with broken arms. Immigrants tend to be young and will have babies, but the alternative is a falling population and a lack of workers. It's hardly a simple subject.

Agreed. If there was an easy answer we’d have solved it already

 

[Eric Blair]

You have, in Somalians, chosen the people who take the most out while contributing the least according to statistics so a Somalian with a broken arm is statistically likely to be on benefits, or live in a house we here people are. So they are costing us money while we also have to treat them, real win there.

Immigrants, age, get ill, have children etc just like the rest of the population, saying they are young now isn’t really a solution to the problem, they are adding to the problem that they are supposedly coming to solve.

We could just go and get our own takeaways for instance rather than have people come into the country for that vital role.

Don’t get me started on gig economy stuff

 

[Basham Wonderland]

The last decade also saw the Tories mismanaging finances needed within public services, leaving them crippled.

Maybe that's the coincidence that is more relevant.

Your numbers are nothing but blaming our failings in this country on one section without any evidence to support that by your own admission.

That is the bit that is unhelpful, or worse.

Well in that case, because we now have a Labour government we should see the NHS returning to good working order towards the end of their term of office, using their tax receipts?

If the NHS continues to degrade over the coming five years, that would suggest that the huge influx of people (who do not have a lifetime or generational history of paying in for the service provided) is driving it into the ground.

I know we need multiple new hospitals and GPs every year to keep up with the growing demand, because the stats demonstrate that. I think your counter argument that the new arrivals are young and won't use the NHS is a poor one. I know we aren't building hundreds of hospitals and GP services. So guess what - I think in 5, 10, 15 years when the NHS collapses or is crumbling further, we'll be looking back at the numbers and wondering why nobody noticed that the demand was outstripping the service year on year.

My evidence has been provided with my workings on request. There's no evidence for anything you're saying either, other than that you've been in hospital recently.

 

[Scotchegg]

Well in that case, because we now have a Labour government we should see the NHS returning to good working order towards the end of their term of office, using their tax receipts?

If the NHS continues to degrade over the coming five years, that would suggest that the huge influx of people (who do not have a lifetime or generational history of paying in for the service provided) is driving it into the ground.

I know we need multiple new hospitals and GPs every year to keep up with the growing demand, because the stats demonstrate that. I think your counter argument that the new arrivals are young and won't use the NHS is a poor one. I know we aren't building hundreds of hospitals and GP services. So guess what - I think in 5, 10, 15 years when the NHS collapses or is crumbling further, we'll be looking back at the numbers and wondering why nobody noticed that the demand was outstripping the service year on year.

My evidence has been provided with my workings on request. There's no evidence for anything you're saying either, other than that you've been in hospital recently.

And if our public services do improve, I guess you'll be rushing back to thank all of those new arrivals to the country for their contributions towards this?

 

[Basham Wonderland]

And if our public services do improve, I guess you'll be rushing back to thank all of those new arrivals to the country for their contributions towards this?

No, unfortunately I won't - I think there are many reasons why immigration should be heavily curtailed. Degradation of public services is just one of the major issues caused by a ballooning imported population.

 

[SteMerritt]

I know we need multiple new hospitals and GPs every year to keep up with the growing demand, because the stats demonstrate that. I think your counter argument that the new arrivals are young and won't use the NHS is a poor one.

I'd say that both of your arguments are a good starting point for the debate, but both of them have some validity about them. The problem with the NHS is a complex one, with lots of variables. To distil it down to this one argument is very blinkered (on both sides).

 

[Sheik Djibouti]

It would be an interesting comparison to see whether oodles of immigrants or an ageing population that are living longer, is putting a greater strain on the NHS. My finger in the air guess would be the latter.

And for that ageing population who are likely to have a greater need for NHS services, how is that provision paid for at the point they need it?

 

[Eric Blair]

Back in August I set out:

We have 1,148 hospitals, which is about 1 per 50,000 people.

A net increase in the population of 620,000 people would need 12 new hospitals (and 66 GP surgeries) along with 15,000 NEW NHS employees, every year, just to service new arrivals into the country and maintain current healthcare capacity.

The figures are also based on how many NHS employees we have per person in the country, so they are indicative of the level of employment needed in the NHS to service demand.

Figures obviously only true to Summer 2024 and picture will develop as immigration numbers fluctuate.

These figures tend to be very helpful when someone is in danger of throwing out a lazy "if you control immigration you damage the NHS" argument.

Thanks for this. Just having a mull. I suppose there are some variables here. So in terms of the net increase of people - how many are temporary (I know for example that a huge driver of immigration is international university students. Presumably they are younger and have less of a draw on the health service). Also some of that migration will be supporting public services (care home workers, NHS workers and the like).

And probably most importantly - is that net increase in population due to migration or does it include indigenous (can’t think of a better word, sorry) people having more children. Ie. Where is that growth coming from?