Brexit

Whingit

Active member
Why would a Canadian have an opinion on the EU? And didn't he pretty much say that the banks should be able to cope, but a transition period and a deal of sorts would be nice. Is he supposed to lie and say his job has never been easier and there's absolutely no anxiety whatsoever?
 

ljs

Active member
I read it (admittedly only briefly) that a sudden no deal exit will be the problem rather than a managed departure. Seems quite reasonable to me.
There won't be a 'sudden' no deal exit will there, as it's already been talked about as a possibility.
 

Marked Ox

Well-known member
There won't be a 'sudden' no deal exit will there, as it's already been talked about as a possibility.
What I think Carney was referring to was the withdrawal from the EU with Article 50, if we don't come to a transitional agreement then it will be a sudden no deal. Customs arrangements etc will immediately have to be different the next day, all agreements would no longer stand etc as we would be a 3rd party nation.

An orderly transition would negate this or most of it anyway.
 

cassox

Junior Member
What I think Carney was referring to was the withdrawal from the EU with Article 50, if we don't come to a transitional agreement then it will be a sudden no deal. Customs arrangements etc will immediately have to be different the next day, all agreements would no longer stand etc as we would be a 3rd party nation.

An orderly transition would negate this or most of it anyway.
Jeeeeez ....you all talk as if the EU doesnt export goods etc to us........ what is bad for us will be worse for them,obviously as negotiators they are playing hardball which is what negotiators DO....our negotiators being an exception....weak weak weak and an embarrassment
 

Marked Ox

Well-known member
Jeeeeez ....you all talk as if the EU doesnt export goods etc to us........ what is bad for us will be worse for them,obviously as negotiators they are playing hardball which is what negotiators DO....our negotiators being an exception....weak weak weak and an embarrassment
You don't really grasp international trade, the law around it or requirements for importing/exporting that would change overnight without a transitional arrangement, do you?

You aren't Chris Grayling are you?
 

tonyw

Active member
Jeeeeez ....you all talk as if the EU doesnt export goods etc to us........ what is bad for us will be worse for them,obviously as negotiators they are playing hardball which is what negotiators DO....our negotiators being an exception....weak weak weak and an embarrassment
Yeah, you've also got it backwards.
Approximately 43% of all UK exports go to the UK.
If you ignore intra-EU trade, then about 18% of all EU exports go to the UK (if you include intra-EU trade, it's about 8%).

So the actual consequences of a no deal Brexit will be bad for them, worse for us (at least in terms of exports, which is what you seem to be talking about).

I still find it impossible to believe that the two sides will let us just drop out without any form of deal on March 29th. Neither side has prepared for that eventuality, and it would be absolute chaos. Proper 'What the **** is going on'-type chaos. Especially at every port, airport and the Irish border.

What I'm expecting now - which is frankly what I've been expecting for the last two years - is some sort of weak transition deal that kicks the can down the road for another 1-2 years, changing nothing whilst the negotiations drag on interminably.
Will probably trigger an election, though, as it's a solution that precisely noone wants.
 

cassox

Junior Member
If there is no agreement we will revert to WT tariffs unless of course the EU wont accept that.....which they will have to. nothing like a bit of remoaner bullsh#t scaremongering tho is there ;)
 

tonyw

Active member
If there is no agreement we will revert to WT tariffs unless of course the EU wont accept that.....which they will have to. nothing like a bit of remoaner bullsh#t scaremongering tho is there ;)
In other words we have to switch immediately from a situation where all goods and services can enter the country from the EU (and vice versa) tariff-free to a situation where we have to undertake custom checks to monitor all those goods and services, and charge the appropriate WTO tariff on them. Including at the Irish border.

You think we have the infrastructure and personnel to deal with that? Do we hell. And neither do the EU - although, as I said, it's a smaller proportion of their goods and services that it is ours.
 

cassox

Junior Member
Exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth £240 billion in 2016, while exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about £320 billion. ... We have our biggest trade deficit with Germany— in 2016 it sold about £26 billion more to us than we sold to it, according to the latest UK data.

If they dont wanna play ball we will get our goods from elsewhere put that alongside the Billions they will cease to get from us and that should see bthe end of the EU...especially when Italy and others decide to leave.....THATS what that idiot May should be threatening instead of laying down while those wan#ers attempt to lord it over us.....GROW SOME BALLS!!
 

cassox

Junior Member
In other words we have to switch immediately from a situation where all goods and services can enter the country from the EU (and vice versa) tariff-free to a situation where we have to undertake custom checks to monitor all those goods and services, and charge the appropriate WTO tariff on them. Including at the Irish border.

You think we have the infrastructure and personnel to deal with that? Do we hell. And neither do the EU - although, as I said, it's a smaller proportion of their goods and services that it is ours.
Exactly!! they will have to come to an agreement then won't they?? on OUR terms (we have our own border controls and our laws rule over the EU ones) they aint gonna give us this if we continue to act like a bunchve wimps.....they shouldve done a deal with CaMORON when they had the chance....2 bleedin years wasted ffs
 

Marked Ox

Well-known member
Exactly!! they will have to come to an agreement then won't they?? on OUR terms (we have our own border controls and our laws rule over the EU ones) they aint gonna give us this if we continue to act like a bunchve wimps.....they shouldve done a deal with CaMORON when they had the chance....2 bleedin years wasted ffs
Laughable. You think the EU will give us everything on OUR terms. Did you follow the Greek bailout negotiations and subsequent Greek attempts to renegotiate? Have you been following the Brexit negotiations at all?

Without a transition deal going to WTO terms the next day will cause immediate mayhem and many companies, like Mini's, supply chains will be screwed as they don't hold much parts in stock and rely on just in time delivery. If WTO continue for any decent length of time, watch the likes of BMW moving production into the EU as they will be screwed on things like Country of Origin status etc which the WTO has clear rules on.

Even the Sandwich producers will be screwed up as they won't be able to order fresh ingredients due to the uncertainty surrounding time taken to import them. So the choice will be Cheese and Pickle then.
 
Laughable. You think the EU will give us everything on OUR terms. Did you follow the Greek bailout negotiations and subsequent Greek attempts to renegotiate? Have you been following the Brexit negotiations at all?

Without a transition deal going to WTO terms the next day will cause immediate mayhem and many companies, like Mini's, supply chains will be screwed as they don't hold much parts in stock and rely on just in time delivery. If WTO continue for any decent length of time, watch the likes of BMW moving production into the EU as they will be screwed on things like Country of Origin status etc which the WTO has clear rules on.

Even the Sandwich producers will be screwed up as they won't be able to order fresh ingredients due to the uncertainty surrounding time taken to import them. So the choice will be Cheese and Pickle then.
The arrogance is astonishing, isn't it? I thought we'd got over this 'we're GREAT Britain and the world will be beating a path to be associated with us', but apparently not.

Many Brexiteers continue to display an engrained xenophobia combined with an over-inflated opinion in the importance of this country on a world stage. Simplistic nonsense.
 
Top Bottom