National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

[Paul Cannell]

You are Forrest Gump

 

[Essexyellows]

You are Forrest Gump

One hopes you aren`t alluding to my #parkrun efforts @PC . ?

Anyway............ crack on, get the job done.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Get the job done by conspicuously failing to do the job properly or competently?

 

[Paul Cannell]

*alluding

I hope I can elude you whenever necessary ?

 

[Northstandboy]

This is getting tiresome, changes made yet still MP's are not happy.

They are not going to get everything there way. That is compromise and negotiations! They do not want a no deal but still not willing to accept Mays deal!

Now the DUP has said they will not vote for it!

If it is rejected, call a GE! If i was her i would say "f**k you all" and leave.

 

[Essexyellows]

Get the job done by conspicuously failing to do the job properly or competently?

Should have dropped the axe the day after the result and sorted out the remains over the next 2,3,4,5 years...or however long it takes.
Unfortunately we have bred a society that doesnt have winners & losers so the winners have to "listen to the defeated" and that is where the mess starts. Have to admire TMs tenacity to get something done...... lots of brinkmanship and looking over the edge...... it will go to the wire.
Chances of a GE.............. interesting..... whoever campaigns to leave on WTO/No Deal is almost guaranteed 17+ million votes or more.

 

[Sarge]

Heard a part report on the news that our attorney general wont support or recommend todays deal? ...admittedly only half heard it as was driving back from u18s game

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Yes and the Ulster Unionists (who are apparently the real rulers of his country!) don't like it much either. Looks like another defeat for the govt tonight. Mind you I'll be listening to the football!

 

[Sheik djibouti]

Heard a part report on the news that our attorney general wont support or recommend todays deal? ...admittedly only half heard it as was driving back from u18s game

Yep...that's about the size of it. Neither will the DUP or the majority of the ERG, which means Mays deal is dead in the water (again).

No deal on 29th will most likely be ruled out by Parliamentary vote tomorrow (much to Essex' chagrin, but I suspect not all 17.4mill agree with him[emoji6])

Parliament will then vote to ask the EU to extend A50...probably with a view to renegotiate a deal....but whether they agree, for how long, who actually negotiates and what then happens if there is no further agreement.

In short it's a clusterf#ck and we might still leave with no deal on 29th if EU or any one member state say no. The only way then to prevent no deal exit would be to revoke article 50 and start again!.....Cue protests, panic and endless argument.

JOY!

 

[tonyw]

I still think - even as a remainer - that the Brexiteers are being absolute morons by rejecting this deal.

Yes, it's a bad deal....but it gets the UK out of the EU, and then there's a chance to negotiate something better over the coming years whilst Britain disentangles itself from the bloc. Once you're out though.....it's going to be nigh on impossible to get back in. Ultimately, Brexit will be delivered - in a form that's to be determined later.

They have to know that parliament is not going to vote for no deal, so the alternative to May's arrangement is almost certain to be can kicking in one guise or another. Which could easily end in another referendum, and no Brexit at all.

They can't want a general election (which is the other way a stronger Brexit could be delivered - if the UK electorate votes in a more Brexit-friendly parliament) because otherwise they would have voted no confidence a couple of months back. But I suspect this is inevitably what we'll get now - this parliament can't generate a consensus, so it goes back to the people to see if they'll elect one that can.

It's probable that May's deal would fail anyway (and by contrast, I can understand why the DUP is voting against it)…..so maybe they know this, and are just using this as an opportunity for virtue signaling.

But as it stands, they're letting absolutism get in the way of pragmatism, and reducing the chances of getting the outcome they want.

 

[Oufcrealist]

If there was a GE anytime soon there isn't any party that I could vote for as things stand. Labour with a decent leader would walk it but they are not electable as they are. I would never believe a word the Tories or Lib Dems say. TM thought she had brexit in the bag by cohorting with the DUP but they have abandoned her after the sweeteners.
As someone else said, British politics is in a horrible mess!!

 

[ZeroTheHero]

The problem with a General Election (and I agree it is looking increasingly likely) is that the option to vote for party A, B or C does not marry up in any way with the Brexit debate/options. Let's say that you want a hard Brexit or a second referendum or to support May's deal - who do you vote for? If the shares of the vote remain roughly as they are, what then? What would it mean if one party or another increased their MPs a bit? Would everyone just vote for the same old party they always have done regardless? Or would a smaller party (let's say the Lib Dems for example) stand on a purely 'Remain' ticket?

 

[tonyw]

The problem with a General Election (and I agree it is looking increasingly likely) is that the option to vote for party A, B or C does not marry up in any way with the Brexit debate/options. Let's say that you want a hard Brexit or a second referendum or to support May's deal - who do you vote for? If the shares of the vote remain roughly as they are, what then? What would it mean if one party or another increased their MPs a bit? Would everyone just vote for the same old party they always have done regardless? Or would a smaller party (let's say the Lib Dems for example) stand on a purely 'Remain' ticket?

I don't think there's any doubt that the Lib Dems would stand on a purely 'Remain' ticket. They pretty much did that last time. I imagine they may well win a few more seats in Remain-supporting areas, as voters there get frustrated with the Tory/Labour in-fighting and antics, but still won't get back to their pre-coalition numbers.

But in general, I suspect a General Election might just lead to voters having to properly vet candidates in their constituencies - if they indeed want Brexit to be the key issue on which they vote. If they want a second referendum, pick the candidate that's campaigning for that. If they want a hard Brexit, likewise. With so much aisle-crossing going on, it won't necessarily be possible (unless the major parties do some serious deselecting) to assume a candidate's position on Brexit just because they're wearing a red or blue rosette.

Might it actually force more voters to - shock, horror - fully engage with the democratic process, and think about who they're voting for?

I'll also be curious, if it happens, to see what the rebel MPs like Soubry do. Will they actually form a new party or run as independents? And will their constituents reward or punish them for their principles?

 

[ZeroTheHero]

But in general, I suspect a General Election might just lead to voters having to properly vet candidates in their constituencies - if they indeed want Brexit to be the key issue on which they vote. If they want a second referendum, pick the candidate that's campaigning for that. If they want a hard Brexit, likewise.

Well the candidates for any seat will usually be the incumbent MP plus one major competitor- both of whom might be on the same side of the leave/remain/deal divide. For your theory to work, you would really have to ensure that there was a fair representation of Brexit positions across the candidates in every constituency - and even then, would someone who agreed with (for example) the Lib Dem stance be happy in voting for them if they didn't like any of their other policies?
I think if we are going to have a GE that is some sort of Brexit referendum by proxy, then it would be better to have it as a peoper referendum where people were voting on this one issue, with 'party politics' left to one side. How on earth you would frmae the question(s), how you would say who had 'won' and then how it would be implemented is another kettle of very smelly fish entirely.
On another note, has anyone noticed how quiet the odious Boris has been recently? Is he just waiting for his moment?

 

[tonyw]

Well the candidates for any seat will usually be the incumbent MP plus one major competitor- both of whom might be on the same side of the leave/remain/deal divide. For your theory to work, you would really have to ensure that there was a fair representation of Brexit positions across the candidates in every constituency - and even then, would someone who agreed with (for example) the Lib Dem stance be happy in voting for them if they didn't like any of their other policies?
I think if we are going to have a GE that is some sort of Brexit referendum by proxy, then it would be better to have it as a peoper referendum where people were voting on this one issue, with 'party politics' left to one side. How on earth you would frmae the question(s), how you would say who had 'won' and then how it would be implemented is another kettle of very smelly fish entirely.
On another note, has anyone noticed how quiet the odious Boris has been recently? Is he just waiting for his moment?

I guess it ties in with my view that the UK is a parliamentary democracy, not a direct democracy, therefore we should act like one.
We elect representatives to parliament to make the difficult, complex decisions on our behalf, and if they fail in that duty - as the current parliament has failed spectacularly any way you slice it - then we have another general election to elect new representatives to try again.

Now obviously it's not ideal to have a single issue dominating an election cycle.....but it is at least the single most important issue that the country has faced for 70 years. I'm sure that the Brexiteer/Remoaner camps will ensure that every constituency has at least one candidate up for election that sits on either side of the divide (with the possible exception of regions like Lincolnshire or large swathes of central London where there is such a clear majority for one side of the Brexit debate that there wouldn't be a whole lot of point running in the opposite direction)

 

[Gary Baldi]

The problem is, there is a no majority for anything in Parliament, with 17 days to go. It's all well and good seeing some Remainers celebrating on Social Media that they've stopped Brexit, but I've not seen a realistic answer to what next from any of them. And whether the EU want to play ball with that. You can't stop it with hope and prayers.

No Deal is coming because MPs simply have not put enough thought into "what next?" outside not liking May's deal. The 2nd vote thing is laughably incoherent even at the highest level, a GE will not resolve anything and No Deal has it's complications too. They could have screwed their own pooch and no matter what the Comrade waffles on about, he has no majority for any of it.

I genuinely fear for what will happen and what loonies will be let out of their cages. Very worried.

 

[YellowTaxi]

The loonies are already in the Conservative party.

A General election might well resolve things. If the Conservative Party were out of office or not dependent on the DUP - who don't believe in dinosaurs or gay sex.

 

[RyanioBirdio]

How fascinating that members of Parliament who didn’t vote for TM’s deal the first time have been allowed a second vote, where several dozen of them changed their mind. Imagine how hugely that swing would have changed the outcome were it closer in the first place. Say, 52/48 or something similar.

Seriously undemocratic behaviour if you ask me.

 

[Gary Baldi]

I see the Govt has released their No Deal tariffs today that will apply for 12 months. 87% of no tarffis, 13% protecting the UKs core industries.

If MPs vote for no "No Deal", I'm not sure what they want. They don't want May's deal but they also must see there is no other deal to make that will keep everyone happy and get a majority without the EU making massive concessions - will they? Sadly, Labours shambled proposals are worse than May's (if that is possible) and the IG are nothing more than hot air.

Who is ready for a No Deal?

And Ryan... The Parliament structure is completely different to a referendum structure. There is no relation to both votes, otherwise we'd have referenda constantly on everything...

Good news though. Nicola Sturgeon is angry.

 

[Essexyellows]

One of our local MPs said on the news that it is becoming "Parliament against the people and that will not end well".
Parliament is predominantly remain.... the electorate is predominantly leave.
A GE will not fix that, and take 22 weeks to sort out.
A second referendum ............ why? How many more can we have to "get the right answer" when there isn't one.
We voted on a simple Yes/No question to leave, sorry its a fact.
March 29th arrives we leave with no deal.

What we don`t do is take that card off the table............