National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

[Marked Ox]

Although I think we ought to remain, I do see that a referendum WILL be complex.

If remain was to win the first question, then that's simple enough. Socially divisive but fairly clear.
Presumably, anyone who voted remain would also be able to vote for their 'least worst' leave option - although I suspect some might find it hard to put a cross in any of those boxes.
If leave was to win the first question, then if there are multiple 'indicative' options (let's take your three as examples) then each might get roughly a third of the vote. So if the (just selecting one at random) May's Deal got 35% and the others 33% and 32%, would MPs be bound to vote that through on a quite small minority win? Of course, the more options you have the more the vote will be split.

I'm not convinced the result (if leave won) would make things much clearer as to *how* we are going to leave. Which of course was the problem in the first place!

I would suggest that you can only answer the 2nd part of Leave if you have answered Leave in the 1st question. It would be far clearer than the original referendum what Leave actually represented. As the 2nd Referendum would be breaking the impasse we find ourselves in then by giving clear options (Remain and Leave) you meet that need. The Leave options weren't definitive, just examples and can be less so can be only 2 options if so wanted (clearly No Deal would be one).

With the Parliamentary impasse then I think it is pretty clear that any Referendum would have to have very specific options for Remain/Leave as the original Referendum question has proven to be a very poor question, being too simplistic for a complicated situation. I think any situation/decision is going to upset people now whatever Parliament does but at least a clear answer would be given.

I don't think the question really is that complicated but the surrounding situation will be, no doubt based on what has gone on. As said whatever happens now, due to the way this Govt and May has handled the process, there will be unhappy people at the end whether they be Remainers/Brexiteers or both.

I don't think we'll get a Referendum anyway. Should Parliament end up wrestling control of the Brexit process then I think we'll end up with something like EFTA. If May keeps control then I reckon a no deal is still likely due to her tunnel vision on her own deal and punishing* Parliament for not voting it through.

*Based on her actions so far I believe she would be that vindictive.

 

[Marked Ox]

A 2nd referendum would be incredibly divisive and damaging.

If it is forced upon the public then it should be a choice between leave on WTO terms or May’s deal. That would be the only way to respect the result of the original referendum.

I would argue we are already at "incredibly divisive and damaging" with the 1st Referendum and the subsequent years when the Govt has done absolutely nothing to bring the various sides together, so a 2nd Referendum would not change that.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

I would suggest that you can only answer the 2nd part of Leave if you have answered Leave in the 1st question. It would be far clearer than the original referendum what Leave actually represented. As the 2nd Referendum would be breaking the impasse we find ourselves in then by giving clear options (Remain and Leave) you meet that need. The Leave options weren't definitive, just examples and can be less so can be only 2 options if so wanted (clearly No Deal would be one).

With the Parliamentary impasse then I think it is pretty clear that any Referendum would have to have very specific options for Remain/Leave as the original Referendum question has proven to be a very poor question, being too simplistic for a complicated situation. I think any situation/decision is going to upset people now whatever Parliament does but at least a clear answer would be given.

I don't think the question really is that complicated but the surrounding situation will be, no doubt based on what has gone on. As said whatever happens now, due to the way this Govt and May has handled the process, there will be unhappy people at the end whether they be Remainers/Brexiteers or both.

I don't think we'll get a Referendum anyway. Should Parliament end up wrestling control of the Brexit process then I think we'll end up with something like EFTA. If May keeps control then I reckon a no deal is still likely due to her tunnel vision on her own deal and punishing* Parliament for not voting it through.

*Based on her actions so far I believe she would be that vindictive.

Like you I don't think a referendum is likely! But...

If you didn't allow those who voted remain (lets say 50% near as dammit) to specify a 'leave' preference, then even with just two leave options it is quite possible that the 'winning option' would be about 25% of those who voted. So 75% of those who voted would be unhappy and 50% wouldn't even have had a say on the form any Brexit would take. I'm not sure that's a goer, really.

 

[Marked Ox]

Like you I don't think a referendum is likely! But...

If you didn't allow those who voted remain (lets say 50% near as dammit) to specify a 'leave' preference, then even with just two leave options it is quite possible that the 'winning option' would be about 25% of those who voted. So 75% of those who voted would be unhappy and 50% wouldn't even have had a say on the form any Brexit would take. I'm not sure that's a goer, really.

Nothing is perfect and as said some will be unhappy.

 

[Essexyellows]

yes that would have worked.

The trouble is that the people advocating Brexit on this forum are both so ignorant and so incapable of formulating an argument it's like talking to 3 year olds. You might as well say "We should have discovered gold in Kidlington" it bears as much relationship to reality.

If such a timetable had been put to the vote the result might have been different and more decisive and we wouldn`t be where we are now.
We now have a hiatus where the people have delivered the result HMG were not prepared for nor wanted.
Parliament is proving as much use as a chocolate fireguard, and we are all sat in "grey area" going in neither direction.
People calling for Article 50 to be scrapped are flying in the face of a democratic decision.
People calling for a third referendum seem to have forgotten we waited 40+ years for the second one.
Its a mess, not because of the result , but the ineptitude of the people tasked to deliver it.

 

[cassox]

Cass OX

"WE MUST leave on the 29th Of May"

the CBI and the TUC:

“Our country is facing a national emergency. Decisions of recent days have caused the risk of no deal to soar. Firms and communities across the UK are not ready for this outcome. The shock to our economy would be felt by generations to come.”

Representing millions of workers and tens of thousands of businesses between them, the employers’ group and trades union umbrella body told May to take three urgent steps, starting with a commitment to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

They said securing an extension beyond 29 March had become essential with only days to go, although they warned that it also needed to be “long enough for a deal to be agreed”.

RISK?? No deal is the BEST outcome.......don't know who youve been listening to.....Businesses are ready for WTO rules even the EU are ready.....get on with it ffs and stop scaremongering.....THATS why theres uncertainty with remoaners

 

[cassox]

If such a timetable had been put to the vote the result might have been different and more decisive and we wouldn`t be where we are now.
We now have a hiatus where the people have delivered the result HMG were not prepared for nor wanted.
Parliament is proving as much use as a chocolate fireguard, and we are all sat in "grey area" going in neither direction.
People calling for Article 50 to be scrapped are flying in the face of a democratic decision.
People calling for a third referendum seem to have forgotten we waited 40+ years for the second one.
Its a mess, not because of the result , but the ineptitude of the people tasked to deliver it.

They don't want to deliver it.........Shame on this government and parliament....DISGUSTING backstabbing going on which will finish the tories for years to come.......if we do not leave i hope they get their bit of karma....a Labour government...would serve the remoaner traitors right

 

[Gary Baldi]

A 2 part question as discussed previously:

- Remain Vs Leave

If Leave wins: what does it look like:
eg. - WTO only/No Deal
May's Deal
EFTA etc

No ambiguity of what Leave looks like should it win as in the original referendum. Those for it can campaign on the specifics as well rather than sunny uplands etc.

Make it binding, as Parliament will have a clear idea of the "will of the people". If it is still leave then what specific form that will be will be already decided by the vote so they will just need to do the process then.

It is not as complicated as you keep trying to make out.

It very much is! A 2 part vote is incredibly complicated!!!

For one, the timelines require 27 European countries to approve and the mood in distinctly we're fed up of the British and their navel gazing. What level of extension is needed? Do we take part in European Elections while the referendum is formed? What monies are we required to pay or not? What happens if the Tories oust May? Is her deal appropriate to vote on?

The issue still persists on the 2nd part of the question. If, like parliament, there is no majority for anything, what do we do? We see a situation where a simple majority is still disputed nearly 3 years later, so I cannot see the loser accepting a 40/30/20/10 vote, regardless of it's binding or not.

• How can we communicate that level of vote and ensure everyone fully understands what they are voting for?
• Should there be a vote preference or just one choice?
• Who approves the choices?

As Remainers in Parliament are finding, the next level of votes in the hardest. I am dismayed that some (not necessarily you) in that side juat seem to think a 2nd vote will solve it all neatly. We are past that.

 

[Marked Ox]

Nice to see the Maybot is continuing her myopic approach to Brexit and her deal. She is whipping Tory MPs to vote against the Parliament's plan to have a series of indicative votes on Wednesday as apparently it will harm our democratic institutions. That ship has already sailed with her and her Govt's actions in Parliament (ie. being held in contempt of Parliament), somebody having to take legal action to ensure that Parliament has a vote on Brexit, their press briefings against the speaker, her inflammatory speech last week and her whole approach to the Brexit process.

She is still trying to bring her deal back for a vote even though she admits it hasn't got enough support. The DUP have said they won't be supporting it in another vote.

 

[Peterdev]

She’s cornered. The people have voted out but May, Parliament and the EU don’t.
Parliament will win and rescind A50 resulting in either staying in or a second vote, which goes against what happened in the referendum

 

[gofish2]

She’s cornered. The people have voted out but May, Parliament and the EU don’t.
Parliament will win and rescind A50 resulting in either staying in or a second vote, which goes against what happened in the referendum

I sincerely hope you're right!

 

[gofish2]

Leave the EU without a deal in March 2019.
We are wasting Billions of pounds of taxpayers money trying to negotiate in a short space of time. Leaving the EU in March 2019 will allow the UK good time to negotiate more efficiently. The EU will be more eager to accept a deal on our terms having lost a major partner.
More detailsSign this petition
553,439 signatures

PetitionRevoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.
The government repeatedly claims exiting the EU is 'the will of the people'. We need to put a stop to this claim by proving the strength of public support now, for remaining in the EU. A People's Vote may not happen - so vote now.
Sign this petition
5,573,940 signatures

Anyone care to make a statistical interpretation?

 

[RyanioBirdio]

RISK?? No deal is the BEST outcome.......don't know who youve been listening to.....Businesses are ready for WTO rules even the EU are ready.....get on with it ffs and stop scaremongering.....THATS why theres uncertainty with remoaners

False. I work in the music industry, which is an enormous sector worth billions a year, and we aren’t ready because we don’t know the terms. Nobody can even tell us exactly what no deal would affect, how it would in turn affect those things, or how quickly. This affects everything from physical music products to touring productions of various scales.

You can’t just keep repeating the narrative that “business is ready”. I’m telling you for a fact, as somebody who works inside it and operates alongside the biggest record companies in the world on a daily basis, that the music business is not ready. We aren’t physically capable of being, because the rules have not been established let alone communicated.

This isn’t project fear, this is reality. Push aside whether people would rather remain or leave, we haven’t planned to leave on no deal. That is a failure of the government, but even if we do leave on no deal whenever that occurs, the sensible thing to do is to actually plan for it. The stupid thing to do would be to just jump blindly “because we said we would”. We should see what it actually means and give ourselves a shot of navigating them as safely as possible.

“Business is ready” is absolutely not true.

 

[gofish2]

I do wonder how those who are now eligible to vote, as opposed to being 15 at the time of the referendum, would vote given what they know now and how Brexit might impact upon their futures. I just listened to a brief trailer on Radox where young people will be given the opportunity to air their views in a panel discussion. Some really thoughtful comments....

 

[tonyw]

It very much is! A 2 part vote is incredibly complicated!!!

Sure, but as we've seen over the past three years - a simple Yes/No vote on EU membership was ridiculously oversimplistic for the question at hand.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Well, both a No Deal Brexit and a Norway-style EFTA membership accomplish leaving the European Union, so literally speaking either option would be delivering the result of the referendum. But they'll leave us with a very, very different country and relationship with Europe afterwards. You'd say that EFTA membership wouldn't be in the spirit of the vote, given the focus on freedom of movement in the campaign, and you'd probably be right, but at the same time, I'd guarantee that 52% of the voters didn't think - given what they were told - that they were voting for WTO tariffs on their shopping and a hard border with Ireland.

If you want to limit the ambiguity in a people's decision, you've got to ask a more complicated question.

(Although again, I'm on record for never wanting a referendum in the first place)

 

[gofish2]

False. I work in the music industry, which is an enormous sector worth billions a year, and we aren’t ready because we don’t know the terms. Nobody can even tell us exactly what no deal would affect, how it would in turn affect those things, or how quickly. This affects everything from physical music products to touring productions of various scales.

You can’t just keep repeating the narrative that “business is ready”. I’m telling you for a fact, as somebody who works inside it and operates alongside the biggest record companies in the world on a daily basis, that the music business is not ready. We aren’t physically capable of being, because the rules have not been established let alone communicated.

This isn’t project fear, this is reality. Push aside whether people would rather remain or leave, we haven’t planned to leave on no deal. That is a failure of the government, but even if we do leave on no deal whenever that occurs, the sensible thing to do is to actually plan for it. The stupid thing to do would be to just jump blindly “because we said we would”. We should see what it actually means and give ourselves a shot of navigating them as safely as possible.

“Business is ready” is absolutely not true.

I think that's a view which is being echoed by the finance houses, major businesses and the various financial institutions. How can anyone be prepared when they don't know what to prepare for?

 

[YellowTaxi]

Cass Ox, EssexYellows and Gary Baldi seem on top of things, fortunately. So we can rely on them stepping up where David Davis Boris Johnson and Liam Fox failed. I'd suggest Cass Ox for Foreign Secretary since his diplomacy skills are a legend on the Board, Essex Yellows for Trade And Industry, and Gary as Brexit minister.

 

[RyanioBirdio]

I think that's a view which is being echoed by the finance houses, major businesses and the various financial institutions. How can anyone be prepared when they don't know what to prepare for?

Precisely. But far too many people are incapable of understanding that and just want to throw us into the ocean out of principle, because it was meant to have been sorted by now. We should have been taught how to swim, yes, but we have not been. The solution is not to risk us drowning because something SHOULD have happened already, because the fact of that matter is that it has not. So do you drown people, and in turn yourself, who have been failed by people who completely screwed everything up, or do you make damn sure someone capable takes over and then chucks us out later on?

 

[gofish2]

Yes, and apparently it would be 'undemocratic' and 'damaging to the nation's trust in government' (go figure) were A50 revocation or a 2nd referendum were to occur. I think Tony's point was really relevant too, namely the the referendum question was far too narrow and we are embarrassingly embroiled in chaos. As much as a gung ho view of 'No deal Brexit' is entertaining, the consequences would likely be dire and far reaching.

 

[cassox]

Leave the EU without a deal in March 2019.
We are wasting Billions of pounds of taxpayers money trying to negotiate in a short space of time. Leaving the EU in March 2019 will allow the UK good time to negotiate more efficiently. The EU will be more eager to accept a deal on our terms having lost a major partner.
More detailsSign this petition
553,439 signatures

PetitionRevoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.
The government repeatedly claims exiting the EU is 'the will of the people'. We need to put a stop to this claim by proving the strength of public support now, for remaining in the EU. A People's Vote may not happen - so vote now.
Sign this petition
5,573,940 signatures

Anyone care to make a statistical interpretation?

OH PLEEEEEEASE.....the hacked petition that has been in the news for a week now??

......Could do better......2/10