National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

[m]

You know what, I think if I was a staunch Brexiteer, then I would probably be voting in favour of May's deal today.

Yes, it's a terrible deal. Yes, it only extricates Britain from half of the thousands of connections it has with Europe, is incredibly nebulous on many other issues, and if and when the trade deal negotiations fail, it locks Britain into a ridiculous fallback position.

But it's a start, and begins to extricate Britain from the EU. And once that process gets going, there will be opportunities at a later date to modify the arrangement to turn it into something like the 'true' Brexit that they want. Certainly will be easier to do that than reverse it and rejoin the EU. Being pragmatic in politics, you can often get to the solution you want incrementally.

But nope, principles have to get in the way of pragmatism. And the arch-Brexiteers are going to turn it down in the hope of No Deal Brexit.....despite the fact that MPs have already indicated that there is a strong majority in parliament trying to avoid that scenario......when it is much more likely that rejecting May's deal is going to lead to an extension of EU membership and/or a second referendum.

Frankly, I like the most likely route to a No Deal Brexit is the EU just getting tired of us, and pulling up the drawbridge!

Odd to be bemoaning an MP showing principles!

 

[Essexyellows]

Clegg was a disaster and was responsible for unnecessary austerity David Cameron and the referendum. The Labour Party is doing very well. otherwise surely May would want another election.

The only reason the Labour Party are "doing very well" is that they are in opposition which is always easier than doing the job. Their "leader" can`t even commit to leave or remain and has played his trump card.....which is akin to urinating into the wind because the numbers don`t add up.
If this goes "back to the country" by GE or Referendum the Leave majority will increase as few of those 17.4 million will change their mind and others who didn`t vote will make the effort.
Sadly the "fear" and lack of confidence in the ability of this country to stand on its own two feet is insidious within society as a whole..... everything is always "somebody elses fault".

 

[Sheik djibouti]

The only reason the Labour Party are "doing very well" is that they are in opposition which is always easier than doing the job. Their "leader" can`t even commit to leave or remain and has played his trump card.....which is akin to urinating into the wind because the numbers don`t add up.
If this goes "back to the country" by GE or Referendum the Leave majority will increase as few of those 17.4 million will change their mind and others who didn`t vote will make the effort.
Sadly the "fear" and lack of confidence in the ability of this country to stand on its own two feet is insidious within society as a whole..... everything is always "somebody elses fault".

What...like all the stuff that's the EU's fault for example?

The best thing that could possibly come out of Corbyn losing the confidence vote today is that he decides to call it a day as leader and Labour sort themselves into some kind of credible opposition. I very much doubt it would happen though. No credible government, no credible opposition...what an utter shambles.

No harm in asking the people again if you are so confident in your prediction is there?

Or how about this for a laugh...everyone who voted in the last referendum has already had their chance and given their opinion so doesn't get to vote again, but make it compulsory for all those that didn't bother last time, cast their vote now (who are still alive, obvs). And how about letting all those able to vote in a GE but not allowed to vote in the last referendum, have a vote this time too? At least then you have the opinion of all those eligible to vote (even if a large proportion decide to spoil their ballot paper)

 

[Gary Baldi]

There are 39 billion reasons the EU may renegotiate some parts of the deal, because at the moment, the divided UK parliament means no deal is more likely than it was a month ago. The EU leaders may be disappointed, but they can't say they weren't warned at how toxic the deal was. Perhaps some legal reassurance would have removed this mess. Who knows.

As for Maybot, regardless of what happens, she cannot hang around. Large amounts of her party don't want her, and large amounts of parliament don't want her deal. To be fair to Maybot, at least her plans had detail - something lacking from the 2nd vote side.

 

[m]

..... everything is always "somebody elses fault".

Ha! I actually had that down as a reason that many people voted to leave!!

 

[Essexyellows]

Ha! I actually had that down as a reason that many people voted to leave!!

Nope, the EU makes us like a poor pantomime horse where we get our feet in line but they decide to go a slightly different way.
So now we just go back to the EU and say its been rejected (and we'll be keeping our £39 billion thank you).
Then the EU would need to give a bit to the UK demands, or we go no deal by running out of time.
That would require TM to state what it is we want in any renegotiation.
Presumably that is just the removal of the backstop and that we don't need EU permission to leave the customs union.

Simples.

 

[YellowTaxi]

I don't see why we don't put Essex Yellows in charge of negotiation.

 

[tonyw]

Nope, the EU makes us like a poor pantomime horse where we get our feet in line but they decide to go a slightly different way.
So now we just go back to the EU and say its been rejected (and we'll be keeping our £39 billion thank you).
Then the EU would need to give a bit to the UK demands, or we go no deal by running out of time.
That would require TM to state what it is we want in any renegotiation.
Presumably that is just the removal of the backstop and that we don't need EU permission to leave the customs union.

If aggressive brinkmanship is the strategy, then May is completely the wrong person to enact it.

Firstly because I don't think she has it in her to switch from nicey nicey to "**** you, Barnier & Juncker" on a dime.
And secondly, because the EU know that she's terrified of a no deal Brexit that her government hasn't seriously attempted to plan for, and that she would be bluffing wildly.

For that strategy to work, you need someone who genuinely believes that a No Deal Brexit is a good thing, or at least not a terrifying concept, to lead those negotiations. Although I despise them both right now, you'd have much more luck trying this tactic with BoJo or Rees-Mogg at the helm.


[as an aside, I think the 39 billion is a bit of a red herring and not the strongest of negotiating chips. Yes it's a lot of money and would smart for the EU to lose it.....but at the same time it's only roughly four months' worth of the EU budget. They'd get over that quickly and won't miss it nearly as much as they'll miss the ongoing UK-shaped hole in the net contributions]

 

[Peterdev]

I’d be interested to know what would happen if she loses the vote tonight( which of course she won’t)..
Given that she has said she would stand down at the next election, a new leader would need to be elected.
Corbyn will no doubt be damaged too. Maybe another leadership challenge in the offing. While we are at it maybe another leader goes, Cable who is pushing eighty

 

[Gary Baldi]

So Maybot won the vote, Gove had a massive pop at Corbyn and nothing much is changing except stumbling towards No Deal. Some MPs fail to grasp each day they posture with no detail about a "people's vote" they get no nearer to it.

The money is very important to the EU because if you look closely, it's not in healthy state. France is on fire, Belgium doesn't have a functioning Govt, nor does Sweden and Merkel is more of a dead woman walking than the Maybot. Let alone Italy or Hungary. That money will help fund their vices and fill the funding gap because so many take more than they contribute.

 

[tonyw]

The money is very important to the EU because if you look closely, it's not in healthy state. France is on fire, Belgium doesn't have a functioning Govt, nor does Sweden and Merkel is more of a dead woman walking than the Maybot. Let alone Italy or Hungary. That money will help fund their vices and fill the funding gap because so many take more than they contribute.

Not for very long, it won't. Which is my point. It's only equivalent to about three years' worth of UK net contributions.

The EU finances are undoubtedly going to be in a much poorer state post-Brexit and they're going to have to either cut their budget or the 27 nations are going to have to contribute more/take less (or they could just follow the standard model, I guess, and try and borrow their way to the end of time).

The 39 billion, for the EU, is little more than a sticking plaster/short term fix and won't solve any of their medium or long term fiscal problems. Which means I don't think it's a hill that they're going to die on........

 

[Gary Baldi]

Not for very long, it won't. Which is my point. It's only equivalent to about three years' worth of UK net contributions.

The EU finances are undoubtedly going to be in a much poorer state post-Brexit and they're going to have to either cut their budget or the 27 nations are going to have to contribute more/take less (or they could just follow the standard model, I guess, and try and borrow their way to the end of time).

The 39 billion, for the EU, is little more than a sticking plaster/short term fix and won't solve any of their medium or long term fiscal problems. Which means I don't think it's a hill that they're going to die on........

It is. But it is 3 more years than they get if we swan off with a No Deal. 3 years to work out how to sort their budgets out, 3 years to honour spending commitments, 3 years to hope the coming recession isn't too deep, plus of course the further issues with UK trade getting harder with No Deal if it falls on WTO.

Of course No Deal will harm both sides, but it's kind of ironic that in a 500 page document, it's one item that is causing the issue. One issue. Kind of mad, but then did Varadker over play his hand in all this? Or was he a patsy?

And frankly, I can't take Macron serious any more when the Gillet Jaune protest is still going and he cannot get to grips with it, while managing to somehow be more unpopular than Donald Trump. That is quite an achievement.

 

[Northstandboy]

Jezzas toys well and truly thrown out of the pram. Won't meet with May unless she rules out a no deal....

 

[YellowTaxi]

If I run over myself with my neighbour's car he's going to really hate having to putting in a new windscreen.

 

[YellowTaxi]

As the majority of the country is opposed to no deal and it will have disastrous consequences for jobs, health, and the wealth of the country Corbyn is absolutely right. The people who are "throwing their toys out of the pram" are the brexiters on this board and elsewhere who are about to cause serious harm to the country's wealth because their economic ignorance is matched only by their belief in fairy tales. I don't mind you shitting in your own pants, But Please leave the rest of us out of it.

 

[Northstandboy]

As the majority of the country is opposed to no deal and it will have disastrous consequences for jobs, health, and the wealth of the country Corbyn is absolutely right. The people who are "throwing their toys out of the pram" are the brexiters on this board and elsewhere who are about to cause serious harm to the country's wealth because their economic ignorance is matched only by their belief in fairy tales. I don't mind you shitting in your own pants, But Please leave the rest of us out of it.

So he doesn't want a no deal but won't back May's deal... He wants it his way, sod the rest!

 

[YellowTaxi]

Exactly.

 

[Sheik djibouti]

So he doesn't want a no deal but won't back May's deal... He wants it his way!

They all do...don't they.

What is really starting to P**s me off is the incessant use of "respect the wishes of the 52%" ...as if the 48% have suddenly become some inferior, lesser species....

We all count you know!

 

[YellowTaxi]

you've edited your comment. adding "He wants it his way, sod the rest!" making it look as if I agree with your last statement. I don't.

 

[Northstandboy]

you've edited your comment. adding "He wants it his way, sod the rest!" making it look as if I agree with your last statement. I don't.

I didn't realise you'd posted, I had the edit screen up a while before I actually added it.

If you'd quoted me it would have been clear.