National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

[Marked Ox]

What about this madcap scenario? : Rather than let her bill fail, she makes a speech which says that her government has decided to remain, in the interests of the country etc. Public uproar but less than 50%? . Corbyn calls a GE but then what? Tories are remain and what can Corbyn do? If he switches to remain too (which he would likely have to do) he is no better a hypocrite than May but if he says he will respect the public vote (unlike May blah bah blah) and is committed to Brexit it will become a GE which he fights on an "integrity" level but is effectively a referendum /second vote. May will have to go of course but the Tories remain in power if she plays the hand this way. Interesting slogans on buses and a voting public confused as f**k! Sometimes you have to bluff with a 2-7 to get the Aces to fold. Very handy timing for Alex Salmond too...

If May was now to switch to just staying in the EU out of the blue, it could well cause the Tories to break up. Although I wouldn't put anything past her or Corbyn for that matter, as both want power for power's sake regardless of the fallout as this Brexit process has demonstrated.

 

[Essexyellows]

Its interesting if nothing else......................

We have both a weak & ineffective government and an equally weak & ineffective opposition.

Corbyn can`t get a no confidence vote through without support from others who won`t give it.

Proper stalemate that needs a radical shake............... No Deal.

 

[Sheik djibouti]

Its interesting if nothing else......................

We have both a weak & ineffective government and an equally weak & ineffective opposition.

Corbyn can`t get a no confidence vote through without support from others who won`t give it.

Proper stalemate that needs a radical shake............... No Deal.

Unfortunately (for you) no deal seems to be the one thing they are willing to unite to defeat[emoji16]

 

[Essexyellows]

Unfortunately (for you) no deal seems to be the one thing they are willing to unite to defeat[emoji16]

Sadly so, that leaves us with May`s "deal" or May`s "Deal B"....if such exists.
She needs to have that on the table in 3 days.
There are 46 Parliamentary working days left until we leave.
43 days then to get "something" in for debate & passed that delivers the referendum result.
All that with a bunch of religious zealots & Comrade Corbyn waiting to knee cap it at every turn and, if all that is survived, then there are the stalking horses in the Conservative party.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

It's a choice between 'Would you prefer to be electrocuted.. or strangled'.

Leaving without a deal would be both stupid and financially disastrous (IMO). Accepting May's deal would almost be the worst of both worlds. Having another referendum would create a massive divide in the country that would take decades to scab over. Rejecting May's deal though does not mean that the EU will come back with a better one - why the hell should they? I can see no good outcome to this at all.

Still never mind, when the country is a smoking ruin, we will still be able to go and watch a load of wankers playing football in the local rec. Oh joy!

 

[Gary Baldi]

And Article 50 being extended is at the pleasure of the EU, and understandably they'd want to know what's in it for them to do it. Further, it could affect the upcoming European election cycle that the UK are currently not included in but if we stay for a year, then what do they do? Let alone what happens when Mr Sciatica leaves.

For the UK, it would mean getting an agreed upon constitutional agreement on what's next. Who decides on a referendum and what is voted on? How binding is that vote? How does that affect our future relationship with the EU? Etc, etc, etc. I see very little what next detail, just a lot of heat and light.

 

[Sheik djibouti]

Not looking good is it....I reckon no brexit has more chance than no deal though!

I suggest whatever happens, the government are going to need to concentrate on stockpiling huge quantities of Nivea

 

[Gary Baldi]

It's a choice between 'Would you prefer to be electrocuted.. or strangled'.

Leaving without a deal would be both stupid and financially disastrous (IMO). Accepting May's deal would almost be the worst of both worlds. Having another referendum would create a massive divide in the country that would take decades to scab over. Rejecting May's deal though does not mean that the EU will come back with a better one - why the hell should they? I can see no good outcome to this at all.

Still never mind, when the country is a smoking ruin, we will still be able to go and watch a load of wankers playing football in the local rec. Oh joy!

One of the few positives of the Maybot deal is that we can move onto the Trade Deal, the real meat in the sandwich. If we dither around as we have been and kick the can down the road, where next?

 

[Briggsy]

The ironic thing is both parties had leaving the EU in their manifestos at the last election, who turn took 80% of the vote. If that's not another implied mandate...

As for the vote today, expect a big defeat for the Maybot. The next part is where it could get interesting. Talk is the EU have some compromises they are willing to give on the backstop (after needlessly inflicting pain on Maybot) which will form part of the next vote. Equally, some Conservatives will change their vote (from both sides of the line on the EU), so there is a lot to happen that is not staying in the EU.

As usual, the Labour party position is as unclear as it was a year ago.

It wasn't an implied mandate at all. Our anachronistic electoral system makes voting for anyone other than the two big parties a waste of time. People had no choice but to vote for a party that had pledged to honour the referendum result in their manifestos, or waste a vote on the LibDems. And a GE is about much more than just Brexit, of course.

I also think that many remainers reluctantly accepted, at that stage, that Brexit would go ahead (I certainly did) and wanted it done as painlessly as possible. But the incompetence of May since has been utterly horrifying.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

One of the few positives of the Maybot deal is that we can move onto the Trade Deal, the real meat in the sandwich. If we dither around as we have been and kick the can down the road, where next?

But that deal is dead. It will not be voted for later on today - at least not as it stands. Maybe some amendment will get it's death postponed a bit (not that that will help at all in the long run).
And you are right - the trade deal is important, possibly the most important element if/when we leave. Let's hope our politicians and negotiators make a better job of that than they have of this balls up!

 

[Briggsy]

You're right, ZTH, that there's no good way out of this mess. A serious number of people are going to be severely peeved whatever happens.

 

[Gary Baldi]

It wasn't an implied mandate at all. Our anachronistic electoral system makes voting for anyone other than the two big parties a waste of time. People had no choice but to vote for a party that had pledged to honour the referendum result in their manifestos, or waste a vote on the LibDems. And a GE is about much more than just Brexit, of course.

I also think that many remainers reluctantly accepted, at that stage, that Brexit would go ahead (I certainly did) and wanted it done as painlessly as possible. But the incompetence of May since has been utterly horrifying.

Both said the UK would leaving the EU in their manifestos, committing themselves to do it if they got into Govt.

If Labour had been smarter, they'd have written some clever text and been able to claim the moral high ground whatever happened. But as it stands, both committed their parties to leave the EU.

 

[Gary Baldi]

But that deal is dead. It will not be voted for later on today - at least not as it stands. Maybe some amendment will get it's death postponed a bit (not that that will help at all in the long run).
And you are right - the trade deal is important, possibly the most important element if/when we leave. Let's hope our politicians and negotiators make a better job of that than they have of this balls up!

Agree. My uninformed guess is both sides will give and take a little more to make the deal more palatable. Perhaps doing the trade deal negotiations up front would have avoided this stalemate and a backstop irrelevant?

 

[Yellow River]

And Article 50 being extended is at the pleasure of the EU, and understandably they'd want to know what's in it for them to do it. Further, it could affect the upcoming European election cycle that the UK are currently not included in but if we stay for a year, then what do they do? Let alone what happens when Mr Sciatica leaves.

For the UK, it would mean getting an agreed upon constitutional agreement on what's next. Who decides on a referendum and what is voted on? How binding is that vote? How does that affect our future relationship with the EU? Etc, etc, etc. I see very little what next detail, just a lot of heat and light.

The upcoming European elections is an interesting point.

If article 50 is extended will the UK be involved in these elections? Would it turn into some kind of proxy 2nd referendum for UK voters?

There might be a huge turn out for an election that hardly anyone is usually interested in.

 

[Briggsy]

Both said the UK would leaving the EU in their manifestos, committing themselves to do it if they got into Govt.

If Labour had been smarter, they'd have written some clever text and been able to claim the moral high ground whatever happened. But as it stands, both committed their parties to leave the EU.

That still doesn't change the fact that you can't see the GE as a mandate for Brexit. If you were, say, a remainer Tory, who's committed to free markets, etc, etc, you're not going to vote Labour on the off-chance of getting Brexit overturned. Similarly, if you're a staunch Labour remainer, you're going to vote Labour anyway, in the hope that they get in and fix all the other things you might see as problems.

Like I said, there's no way out of this that keeps everyone happy.

 

[Gary Baldi]

The upcoming European elections is an interesting point.

If article 50 is extended will the UK be involved in these elections? Would it turn into some kind of proxy 2nd referendum for UK voters?

There might be a huge turn out for an election that hardly anyone is usually interested in.

It's another detail that is lacking from the People's Vote advocates. As you say, is it a proxy referendum, how does that affect the EU politically in any transition deal? How does it affect EU committees and other structures? But equally, it would be unpalatable for them to leave it as is, in a constitutional sense, for however long the UK hangs around.

The more I do the detail on another referendum, the more I see few details from people who are really trying hard for one. Can we really trust another vote on such little depth?

 

[Gary Baldi]

That still doesn't change the fact that you can't see the GE as a mandate for Brexit. If you were, say, a remainer Tory, who's committed to free markets, etc, etc, you're not going to vote Labour on the off-chance of getting Brexit overturned. Similarly, if you're a staunch Labour remainer, you're going to vote Labour anyway, in the hope that they get in and fix all the other things you might see as problems.

Like I said, there's no way out of this that keeps everyone happy.

Never said it was! But when both parties clearly said that the UK would leave the EU as a tenet of what they would do in Govt, at what point is acceptable to back out of that? When it is a very big part of what they would do legislatively?

 

[Briggsy]

Never said it was! But when both parties clearly said that the UK would leave the EU as a tenet of what they would do in Govt, at what point is acceptable to back out of that? When it is a very big part of what they would do legislatively?

i don't know, to be honest! At the end of the day, I'd just hope that all concerned would think carefully about it and do what they honestly believe to be in the best interests of the country. Unfortunately, I don't think any of them are. Certainly not May, who seems to just want to cling on to power, nor the arch-Brexiteers who will accept nothing less that a no-deal exit, nor Corbyn. It's a clusterf*ck, frankly.

 

[Marked Ox]

It's another detail that is lacking from the People's Vote advocates. As you say, is it a proxy referendum, how does that affect the EU politically in any transition deal? How does it affect EU committees and other structures? But equally, it would be unpalatable for them to leave it as is, in a constitutional sense, for however long the UK hangs around.

The more I do the detail on another referendum, the more I see few details from people who are really trying hard for one. Can we really trust another vote on such little depth?

Well the last Referendum was done on such little depth so that shouldn't be an encumbrance.

 

[Marked Ox]

Never said it was! But when both parties clearly said that the UK would leave the EU as a tenet of what they would do in Govt, at what point is acceptable to back out of that? When it is a very big part of what they would do legislatively?

When the Govt have made such a screw up of 2 years or so negotiations and it is looking more and more like a train crash.