National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

[Paul Cannell]

I don't think you can have 3 options in a people's vote unless you want it to be invalid - no majority likely.

A suitably informed vote could only be: leave 29/3,with no deal, extend a year for reflection and a properly informed future vote. This since there will be no renegotiation of May's deal; it will still see Farage and his Russian backers fomenting violence on the streets.

 

[Yellow River]

A second referendum should have 4 simple choices on the ballet paper, with added pictures to help the illiterate.

1. Rare (Theresa May)

2. Medium (Michael Goves)

3. Well Done ( Jacob Rees-Mogg)

4. Brussels Sprouts (Jean-Claude Juncker)

 

[m]

5. Nut Roast (Jonathan Bartley & Sian Berry)

6. Eton Mess (Boris Johnson)

 

[Paul Cannell]

With veg:
1. Crinkle cut chips & ladies' fingers

2. Pommes dauphinois & bitter gourd

3. Boiled potatoes & cardoons

4. Cadbury's Smash & foamed rat(atouille)

 

[Paul Cannell]

5. Who? Oh wild rice & banana fritters?

6. Stuffed marrow.

 

[Gary Baldi]

No quince tart?

 

[Sarge]

No quince tart?

you'll find her in the back bar at the 'bird , Im told

 

[Marked Ox]

Daily Telegraph's take on the ERG:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1063713556615581696

 

[Sharp Edges]

Isn't it the other way round? UK wants to leave and not pay, whilst keeping the room key and being able to enjoy all of the hotel amenities...

A key? We never had a key, anyone can walk in uninvited.

 

[Sharp Edges]

Possibly, although based on the (admittedly relatively small) number of leave voters I've subsequently talked to, most wanted out not because they thought the country had become worse off within the EU, but because (in no particular order): 1. They wanted better control over immigration, 2) They thought the EU rules and regulations we had to adhere to were ridiculous, and 3) They didn't want to be controlled by Merkel/Germany/foreigners/whoever. No-one I talked to put forward an economic argument, and that's still the case.

Being better off doesnt have to be limited to finance/economics. Even if it is I would say those that have benefited are those at the top of the ladder, not at the lower end.

 

[Sharp Edges]

The problem with that is that Labour is just as split on the EU as the Tories. And I don't think they are any more competent. So if they got into power, I'm not sure they could reconcile the two halves of their party/parliament/the country or negotiate a deal any better than this lot.
Chaos it is then.

Also throw into the equation that many remainder labour MP's are representing areas of the country that voted out. Should they not be representing their constituents or is that limited to a general election? I think it was John McDonald? I heard on the radio saying they would get a better deal, all TM had to do was pass it over to them...... Deluded

 

[Marked Ox]

Also throw into the equation that many remainder labour MP's are representing areas of the country that voted out. Should they not be representing their constituents or is that limited to a general election? I think it was John McDonald? I heard on the radio saying they would get a better deal, all TM had to do was pass it over to them...... Deluded

The polls I've read about (also quoted on one of BBC's This Week or the Politics Show) indicate that most Labour areas that voted leave would now vote a majority for remain. How accurate the polls are is another question.

 

[Sharp Edges]

The polls I've read about (also quoted on one of BBC's This Week or the Politics Show) indicate that most Labour areas that voted leave would now vote a majority for remain. How accurate the polls are is another question.

Interesting and surprising if true. I think on the same programme I heard McDonald someone from YouGuv said their research showed if there were another referendum the result would be 52% remain 48% out. Isn't that what the polls were saying before the original vote? I'm amazed its that close after the cluster f**k that's been made of this process.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

I don't think you can have 3 options in a people's vote unless you want it to be invalid - no majority likely.

A suitably informed vote could only be: leave 29/3,with no deal, extend a year for reflection and a properly informed future vote.

Well you have three candidates or more for any election, but I see what you mean: 2/3rds would inevitably be unhappy with the result...

With your two options, do you think the EU would let our politicians and negotiators dick about for another year while keeping the same offer on the table? Or would May be chucked out and some swivel eyed loon like Rees-Mogg take over and demand everything be renegotiated anyway?

We are, in the words of a wise man, utterly screwed whatever we do...

 

[Paul Cannell]

As of this morning it doesn't look like it - I see 10bn price for delay reported.

TBH all I can see is that those who want to smash our institutions and the framework of protection for workers, the environment, food quality will manage to crash out in a no-deal. Then the vultures: Gove, Leadsom, Garage, Rees-Mogg will sell the country (what's left), we will become a dominion of the USA and with a Johnson government implementing a newly-discovered need for austerity a precinct of hell.

I was being hopeful. Sorry.

 

[Ian]

So as someone who is very altruistic, in another post about helping the poorer EU nations, do you not think our "house" should be in order first before we start helping external countries?
The list of things that need improving is very long, and often described as "under funded".
I don`t notice the EU sending aid convoy`s to help our homeless?
I do see "EU matched funding" for useful things....like cycle lanes and electric car charging points.....but its only matched not "paid for by".

We could put our "house in order" if we chose to. It's a political choice, just as we continue to reduce the tax burden of the richest - and increase Council Tax which puts a higher burden on the least wealthy...

If we shared the wealth of this nation more evenly, we'd have no homeless problem.

Austerity is a choice too.

 

[Yellow River]

Interesting and surprising if true. I think on the same programme I heard McDonald someone from YouGuv said their research showed if there were another referendum the result would be 52% remain 48% out. Isn't that what the polls were saying before the original vote? I'm amazed its that close after the cluster f**k that's been made of this process.

Yes, yougov poll immediately prior to the referendum predicted exactly that, 52% remain & 48% leave. They got it badly wrong.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/23/yougov-day-poll

 

[Gary Baldi]

It all depends on the margin of error on the polls and who the pollsters ask. The underrated part of polling in the past 5 years has been who they speak to from what locations in the UK.

 

[Gary Baldi]

But surely polled samples aren't random. They're selected to reflect social class, age, geography, ethnicity etc etc Effectively the sample should be UK in microcosm. I remember Junior on here not getting his head around this and complaining that some pollsters had 'only' asked 2,000 people, so the poll was 'obviously' a nonsense.

Polls in general have a margin of error in them as people will say one thing, and do another. Equally, not everyone was polled. It's why exit polls are more accurate as people are more willing to say what they did rather than what they do.

The whole quiet Conservative concept, and also a case of interviewing the right combination of people to represent the UK wide opinion. If you did the poll in Islington and it was weighted with more recipients than a poll in Abingdon, you'd need a margin of error to not make a definitive call.

 

[Gary Baldi]

I think we’re at cross purposes here. I appreciate that people lie or exaggerate about their voting intentions. I’m talking about how a sample is selected for polling to reflect the nation as a whole. Of course, once polled the results will be subject to margins of error, but at least a ‘fair’ sample had been interviewed.

The issue the UK sample is so volatile, there has to be a margin of error in there because you'd have to put a big amount of effort into ensure it's accurate. Whether it be 52-48 either way. Or 50-50.