National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

[m]

Ah. The night of the long knives.

Nothing to see here.

 

[Sheik djibouti]

 

[Foley]

I suggest you try reading this:

Ivan Rogers: the realities of a no-deal Brexit | The Spectator

As so often in the last three years, much of our political debate is ducking the central strategic questions and is obsessing, in increasingly hysterical fashion on all sides, about tactical ones. We face the most explosive political week for years, perhaps decades. But remarkably little of the...

blogs.spectator.co.uk

And the EU being s**t scared of the outcome, hahahaha, I can only assume you're still in sunlit uplands territory and expect the German carmakers to save us. The EU have prepared for a no deal scenario and any impact with be far less than for us.

When you make such claims, yes you need to back them up.

Mmm I think that a lot of the EU Countries are far more worried of a no deal Beexit that us being let on.
Barnier is the mouthpiece and the Countries are generally being quiet but I believe that Spain, Greece, Germany and France as well as others will dread a no deal Brexit

 

[Foley]

What do those who voted against the Government want? The same MP's who voted against a deal. Now they vote against No deal.

Let's have the election. Let's see how the public view the options.

One of the Labour MPs was on 5 Live yesterday. They wanted to have a vote on the Thersa May deal. When asked why she didnt vote for ir before she implied that Labour whips had stopped her and wishes that she had done.
MPs have screwed this up big time if they seriously want a deal

 

[Big Ronaldo]

So who wants an election...?

Lib Dem’s? Yes please.

Brexit party? Yes, yes, yes!

Greens? Oh yes!

SNP? Oh aye the noo!

Labour... er, not f*****g likely!

Tories? Oh shiiiit noooo!

Outcome?

A Barrel full of fudging politicians in a fucked up coalition.??

 

[Sheik djibouti]

Mmm I think that a lot of the EU Countries are far more worried of a no deal Beexit that us being let on.
Barnier is the mouthpiece and the Countries are generally being quiet but I believe that Spain, Greece, Germany and France as well as others will dread a no deal Brexit

I am sure individual countries and the EU as a whole DO fear a no deal...as they should and as should we.

However, their ability to recover from it will be far greater than ours because of their collective trading power, inherent attraction as one of the biggest world markets to countries wishing to trade with them as well as the existing trade deals around the world that they already have in place. Not to mention the EU already has a far bigger and more productive manufacturing base than we do.

Their ability to lessen the effect of no deal and to recover from it is far far greater than ours, after all, what percentage of EU exports come to the UK and what percentage of UK exports go to EU countries?

And what are we planning to replace that market with in the event of no deal?

The good old U S of A??

 

[Essexyellows]

Are you in anyway concerned by the hard right getting control of the Tory Party and getting rid of those with a different viewpoint when it used to be a "broadchurch"? Likewise, Labour and the hard left?

I'm very concerned at our 2 major parties purging those who don't agree with the narrow view of the leadership and the impact it will have on our democracy which is already being demonstrated by this Govt.

There are times when politicians need to put the nations choice ahead of their own views. Pragmatism is a key skill for them. There are times you need to do things that don`t sit well with your personal moral compass. Both parties have spent decades moving towards the "middle" (where most of us are!) both are now re-aligning to their more natural position, I wouldn`t call it "hard right".

 

[Marked Ox]

Mmm I think that a lot of the EU Countries are far more worried of a no deal Beexit that us being let on.
Barnier is the mouthpiece and the Countries are generally being quiet but I believe that Spain, Greece, Germany and France as well as others will dread a no deal Brexit

They are prepared for it unlike us and the impact will be far less. The political aspect will also trump the trade aspect as well. The EU aren't bricking it about a no deal as was suggested in the post I replied to. Although they don't want it to happen, they've been planning for it as a possibility since May's red lines.

The Ivan Rogers piece is interesting on how it might affect the geopolitical political situation in the Western world and that may have an influence.

 

[Essexyellows]

Just when you think the clusterfuck can`t get any bigger!

So we have the "No Deal" bill today that, if passed, (and gets Royal Ascent) means BJ tries to go to the country for a GE......................................................... but will get blocked by the people who don`t seem to want either a deal, no deal or a GE. ?

On the bright side, it has certainly broken the stalemate!

 

[Peterdev]

Keir Starmer saying they will not vote for election today. Looks like they’re trying to stop the no deal brexit option to get 31/10 extended. Don’t we leave then anyway?
I thought A50 couldn’t be extended again.
If it can is that another PM gone. Three in a few years

 

[Marked Ox]

There are times when politicians need to put the nations choice ahead of their own views. Pragmatism is a key skill for them. There are times you need to do things that don`t sit well with your personal moral compass. Both parties have spent decades moving towards the "middle" (where most of us are!) both are now re-aligning to their more natural position, I wouldn`t call it "hard right".

The Tories and Labour have always both been broadchurches that covered a wide gamut of views and that has been the natural position. That both parties are purging out different views is not natural based on their overall history.

The far right of the Tory spectrum is in charge which is what I meant by Hard right (not fascists etc) and likewise the far left of the Labour spectrum. These are not the natural position of their parties. Heath, Thatcher, Major would demonstrate that.

So the MPs can be pragmatic and revoke A50.

 

[Gary Baldi]

There are times when politicians need to put the nations choice ahead of their own views. Pragmatism is a key skill for them. There are times you need to do things that don`t sit well with your personal moral compass. Both parties have spent decades moving towards the "middle" (where most of us are!) both are now re-aligning to their more natural position, I wouldn`t call it "hard right".

It's hard right, far right, coz that's what the lefties do nowadays. It's funny, when you think about it - I have to label you or your party as far right, hard right, etc.

 

[Gary Baldi]

Neither side is letting this go - which is why a General Election, which will basically serve as a de facto second referendum, is the only way to resolve this mess. The current parliament is way too divided to resolve this themselves - but our democracy relies on them doing so.

So then either BoJo (with support from Nige) wins, and No Deal Brexit is what we get. Polling suggests this is most likely.
Or BoJo loses, and an alternate government forms which either revokes Article 50 outright, or renegotiates the deal to be as soft as can be (depending on the precise make-up of that government).
Either way, the people have had a chance to see what the issues really are over the course of the past three years, and can cast their vote accordingly.

Course the worst case scenario is that an election simply moves the deckchairs around - a few more Lib Dem MPs in London, some Brexit party MPs and the occasional Tory in the North - but the overall maths comes back relatively unchanged and an even split.
In that circumstance, a GE will solve nothing.....but I still think it's an approach that has to be tried

If it's a soft brexit, I will continue to fight for our economic independence from the EU. The last 3 years is shows you don't compromise, you don't give in and if there is an election you don't agree with, subvert it.

Sadly, unless I get what I want, it's not over.

As an aside, seeing Labour now caveat their GE footing is kind of funny. And it's stupid for the Tories to remove the whip from MPs, absolutely stupid short termist lunacy.

 

[Sharp Edges]

I suggest you try reading this:

Ivan Rogers: the realities of a no-deal Brexit | The Spectator

As so often in the last three years, much of our political debate is ducking the central strategic questions and is obsessing, in increasingly hysterical fashion on all sides, about tactical ones. We face the most explosive political week for years, perhaps decades. But remarkably little of the...

blogs.spectator.co.uk

And the EU being s**t scared of the outcome, hahahaha, I can only assume you're still in sunlit uplands territory and expect the German carmakers to save us. The EU have prepared for a no deal scenario and any impact with be far less than for us.

When you make such claims, yes you need to back them up.

Thats an opinion, that doesnt make it fact.

Just because you want it to be fact doesnt mean its true. Just because your opinion is the same as his still doesnt make it fact.

 

[Essexyellows]

So the MPs can be pragmatic and revoke A50.

On 29 March 2017, the EU Commission stated:
"It is up to the United Kingdom to trigger Article 50. But once triggered, it cannot be unilaterally reversed. Notification is a point of no return. Article 50 does not provide for the unilateral withdrawal of notification."

Article 50 also allows the maximum negotiation period of two years to be extended by a unanimous decision by the European Council and the state in question but that clock runs out on the 31st October......

Revocation would also go against the will of the people.

 

[Gary Baldi]

John Mann has just slagged off this parliament as B-Rate and a pantomime, among other things - what a rant ? ?

 

[Gary Baldi]

On 29 March 2017, the EU Commission stated:
"It is up to the United Kingdom to trigger Article 50. But once triggered, it cannot be unilaterally reversed. Notification is a point of no return. Article 50 does not provide for the unilateral withdrawal of notification."

Article 50 also allows the maximum negotiation period of two years to be extended by a unanimous decision by the European Council and the state in question but that clock runs out on the 31st October......

Revocation would also go against the will of the people.

This has been explained to him many, many times, but he cannot take it in and just keeps forgetting.

 

[Gary Baldi]

This is from Katya Adler:
"What the EU has said all along is that you can't ban no deal. The only way to avoid a no-deal Brexit, it says, is to make a deal with the EU, or to decide to stay in the bloc, "

 

[Sheik djibouti]

Not quite so clear cut on revocation of A50 as you might like to think.

Differing views have been expressed on whether the UK's invocation of Article 50 can be revoked.[78] In December 2018, the European Court of Justice ruled that a country that had given notice under Article 50 to leave the EU could exercise its sovereign right to revoke its notice.
British government lawyers had argued that the Article 50 process could not be stopped.[79] An Irish court case challenging this view was later abandoned.[80] Lord Kerrhas asserted that the Article 50 notification can be revoked unilaterally.[81]
UK barrister Hugh Mercer QC noted before Article 50 was invoked that: "Though Art. 50 includes no express provision for revocation of the UK notice, it is clearly arguable for example on the grounds of the duties of sincere cooperation between member states (Art. 4(3) of the Treaty on European Union) that, were the UK to feel on mature reflection that leaving the EU and/or the European Economic Area (EEA) is not in the national interest, the notice under Art. 50 could be revoked."[82]
US law professor Jens Dammann argues: "there are strong policy reasons for allowing a Member State to rescind its declaration of withdrawal until the moment that the State’s membership in the European Union actually ends" and "there are persuasive doctrinal arguments justifying the recognition of such a right as a matter of black letter law".[83]
EU politicians have said that if the UK changes its mind, they are sure a political formula will be found to reverse article 50, regardless of the technical specifics of the law.[84] According to the German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, "The British Government has said we will stay with the Brexit. We take the decision as a matter of respect. But if they wanted to change their decision, of course, they would find open doors."[85]

Whatever happens, it's going to be a good time to be a lawyer with expertise in constitutional and EU law[emoji848]

 

[Marked Ox]

Thats an opinion, that doesnt make it fact.

Just because you want it to be fact doesnt mean its true. Just because your opinion is the same as his still doesnt make it fact.

Ivan Rogers funnily enough has experience of what he is talking about that I'm guessing you have absolutely none.