General An Unbiased Look at Oxford United's Championship Chances

VisitorInPeace said:
I've put together an analysis of Oxford United's chances in their triumphant return to the Championship. It's a deep dive into the squad, tactics, and everything else you need to know about the upcoming season.

Now, before you grab your pitchforks, I'll admit my prediction might not be music to your ears. But hey, that's what makes football so exciting, right? The underdogs can always surprise us!

Read on to see my full analysis and feel free to let me know where you think I've got it wrong.

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The year 1999 is well-remembered for Manchester United completing the treble with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's winning goal in the Champions League final. That same season, Sunderland and Bradford City were promoted directly from the Championship, while clubs like Grimsby Town, Tranmere Rovers, Stockport County, Crewe Alexandra, Port Vale, and Bury all played in the second tier of English football. Back then, it was called Division One, but we now know it as the Championship. What many may not recall from that season is that Oxford United finished second to last, relegating them to the third tier. Since then, the Yellows have never returned to the Championship.

Fortunately, that long wait is finally over. Since their relegation in 1999, they've endured financial hardships, played in the non-league, and even moved to a new stadium—one with only three sides, where the fourth is a parking lot. They'll soon leave that behind for a new home when their agreement to play at Kassam Stadium expires in 2026. Thankfully, Oxford has secured wealthy owners who can steer them in the right direction, and playing in the Championship will undoubtedly make those stadium plans easier to realize.

Last season started brilliantly for Oxford United, with Liam Manning leading them to impressive performances in the autumn. When Manning departed for Bristol City, things took a downturn, but local hero Des Buckingham stepped in and secured a long-awaited promotion for the Yellows. Oxford clinched their Championship spot through the playoffs, with a convincing display in the final. Now, they're back in the Championship for the first time since 1999. It will be exciting to see if this is just a brief visit or a return for the long haul.

The Gaffer

Not many teams have the privilege of having a supporter as their head coach, but Oxford United does. In November of last year, Des Buckingham was brought in to replace Liam Manning. Buckingham was born and raised in Oxford, played youth football for Oxford United, and even taught at a local school. At 18, he began his coaching career with Oxford United, working with various youth teams and eventually the first team under Chris Wilder.

In 2016, Buckingham embarked on an adventure, traveling to New Zealand to work with Wellington Phoenix. At 31, he became the youngest coach in A-League history when he took charge. Since then, he's held various coaching positions in New Zealand and Australia, including leading several New Zealand youth national teams. Before joining Oxford United, Buckingham spent time in India as the head coach of Mumbai City.

Buckingham's teams have often been seen in a 4-2-3-1 formation in recent seasons, but he personally prefers a 4-3-3 or 3-4-3. At Oxford United, his team has looked solid and strong defensively, operating as a well-oiled machine while playing with more freedom in attack. Perhaps their offensive style has bordered on recklessness at times, as they occasionally fielded almost exclusively attacking players in midfield and attack during their League One campaign. It will be interesting to see if Buckingham maintains this approach in the Championship or adopts a more defensive mindset. Notably, Buckingham has been praised for his willingness to make early tactical adjustments during matches.

The Squad

In goal, Oxford United welcomes a new face this season. Matt Ingram, acquired from Hull City, will be a crucial figure for the Yellows due to his Championship experience. The 30-year-old made over a hundred appearances for the Tigers since joining in 2019 and has proven himself a reliable presence between the posts at this level. Jamie Cumming was the first choice in the latter half of last season and remains with the club, as does Simon Eastwood, though the 34-year-old will likely serve as a veteran third-choice keeper.

The defensive line looks largely unchanged from last season. Elliott Moore and Ciaran Brown were mainstays at center-back, with Brown also featuring at left-back. Both are expected to see significant playing time this season, while Jordan Thorniley provides backup. It would be surprising if Oxford doesn't bring in at least one more central defender before the transfer window closes.

At right-back, local talent Sam Long is expected to get plenty of minutes, but he'll face stiff competition from new signing Peter Kioso. Kioso has prior Championship experience and might be seen as a safer bet for Des Buckingham at this level. On the left, veteran Joe Bennett could be vital with his experience, while Jack Currie has been brought in from AFC Wimbledon to challenge the 34-year-old for the starting spot. Greg Leigh saw some action at left-back last season, but Currie's arrival suggests Leigh's future at the club may be limited.

In midfield, one name stands out above all: Cameron Brannagan. The playmaker is exceptional in his deeper central midfield role and has been one of the best players in League One for several seasons. Every summer and winter, he's linked with clubs from higher divisions, but somehow Oxford always persuades him to stay. The same happened this summer, with Brannagan signing a new deal. It will be a treat to see him in action at this level. Alongside Brannagan, we find Marcus McGuane, Josh McEachran, Tyler Goodrham, and new signings Will Vaulks, Idris El Mizouni, and Louie Sibley. In other words, competition for places in midfield is fierce.

Goodrham can play various roles centrally or out wide, while Ruben Rodrigues thrives in a number 10 role. The Portuguese magician certainly impressed me when he showcased his skills for Notts County a couple of seasons ago, and he could become a fan favorite in the Championship. However, the wings look thin at the moment, with only Owen Dale and new signing Przemyslaw Placheta as pure wingers. The striker position is also a concern. Mark Harris was excellent last season but has struggled previously in the Championship. Apart from Harris, only Will Goodwin and academy product Gatlin O'Donkor are available. I'm confident Oxford will acquire both wingers and a striker before the transfer window closes.

My Take

Oxford United seems to be well-run at the moment. They have resourceful owners and capable individuals in key positions making smart decisions regarding recruitment and club operations. This makes me optimistic about their future. However, several factors make me skeptical about their chances of staying up this season.

Firstly, unlike in previous seasons, no clubs stand out as particularly poorly run or financially unstable. This makes it harder to predict who will be relegated, and I believe the competition at the bottom of the table will be fiercer than ever. Looking at Oxford's current squad, it's fair to say it might be the weakest in the league.

A weak squad doesn't necessarily preclude a good season if the right manager is at the helm. While Des Buckingham has received much praise for his coaching abilities, I'm still skeptical about what he can achieve at this level. I wasn't overly impressed with Oxford under his leadership in League One, and I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles to get the Yellows firing against significantly stronger opposition this season.

As of now, the squad looks thin and weak, and I expect several crucial signings before the transfer window closes, particularly in attack. However, I have no doubt that Oxford will be fighting tooth and nail this season. Whether they'll be relegated, I'm not sure, but based on what I know about the Championship teams today, I can't help but place The U's in the relegation zone.

Prediction: 23rd place
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This is way more fun to read after the Norwich game . Thanks.
 
SSO said:
I know it's only 4 games in but I wonder how our Blackburn Rovers guest now sees us. I am asking as the transfer window has been and gone now and we have played his team away from home. Are we still in bottom 3 in the eyes of neutrals and supporters of other Chsmpionship teams or had opinion swayed a little?
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We are currently 2/1 to be relegated with bet365. Plymouth, Cardiff and Portsmouth are shorter odds so I guess we have moved up a bit.
We are 8/1 to finish bottom. Again behind the same 3 teams.

Plymouth are odds on favourites to go down.
 
SSO said:
I know it's only 4 games in but I wonder how our Blackburn Rovers guest now sees us. I am asking as the transfer window has been and gone now and we have played his team away from home. Are we still in bottom 3 in the eyes of neutrals and supporters of other Chsmpionship teams or had opinion swayed a little?
Click to expand...
I revised my predicted league table after the transfer window closed, where I placed Oxford United in 19th place. I wrote the following: Before the season started, I had Oxford United in a relegation spot. I no longer do. The Yellow Shirts have been a breath of fresh air at the start of the season, and they seem to be performing very well under Des Buckingham's leadership. Oxford impresses with their pressing off the ball, while also having no trouble creating chances going forward. Since I released my prediction, they have been very active in the transfer market, and several players have come through the doors at Kassam Stadium who can help keep Oxford away from relegation. The signings of Siriki Dembele and Malcolm Ebiowei, in particular, make me optimistic for Oxford’s prospects. The results so far have been good, and so have the performances. I’ve seen enough to believe in Oxford securing their Championship status for another season.
 
VisitorInPeace said:
I revised my predicted league table after the transfer window closed, where I placed Oxford United in 19th place.
Click to expand...

That's the thing about predictions, if you amend them enough eventually something will stick.

Don't worry, you're not the first fan of a Championship club to absolutely make sh*t up on the spot and be shown to be, with all respect, f*cking clueless.

And you won't be the last.
 
SirAndyOfCrosby said:
That's the thing about predictions, if you amend them enough eventually something will stick.

Don't worry, you're not the first fan of a Championship club to absolutely make sh*t up on the spot and be shown to be, with all respect, f*cking clueless.

And you won't be the last.
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To be fair his opening post was before the end of the window and he did make a decent enough argument across the piece. He has come back and placed us 19th which is what we would have wanted for ourselves before a ball was kicked. I am seriously thinking though that a lot of guys on social media giving it the big un and disrespecting our chances deserve a mention at the end of this season. So I am collecting names and will be intending to give them the Father Ted Golden Cleric treatment when we are safe.
 
www.walesonline.co.uk

Erol Bulut is in Cardiff City last chance saloon, he must change now to survive

Bulut’s football and tactics have bored Bluebirds fans and pressure is on for manager to change his ways for Leeds United clash
www.walesonline.co.uk www.walesonline.co.uk
"Derby picked three players Cardiff discarded - Ebou Adams, Curtis Nelson and Nathaniel Mendez Laing, who each starred in their team’s 1-0 win. Oxford United have four - Mark Harris, Will Vaulks, Joe Bennett and Ciaron Brown.

Cardiff have replaced those seven several times over and clearly have a much superior squad, yet they languish at the bottom while Derby and Oxford are in the top eight.

Good luck to those two, but that can’t be deemed acceptable in the Welsh capital."
 
VisitorInPeace said:
I revised my predicted league table after the transfer window closed, where I placed Oxford United in 19th place. I wrote the following: Before the season started, I had Oxford United in a relegation spot. I no longer do. The Yellow Shirts have been a breath of fresh air at the start of the season, and they seem to be performing very well under Des Buckingham's leadership. Oxford impresses with their pressing off the ball, while also having no trouble creating chances going forward. Since I released my prediction, they have been very active in the transfer market, and several players have come through the doors at Kassam Stadium who can help keep Oxford away from relegation. The signings of Siriki Dembele and Malcolm Ebiowei, in particular, make me optimistic for Oxford’s prospects. The results so far have been good, and so have the performances. I’ve seen enough to believe in Oxford securing their Championship status for another season.
Click to expand...
Smells like AI.
 
I've seen a few comments from opposing fans this season to the effect of 'you wouldn't swap any of Oxford's players with ours', which although occasionally true, doesn't actually reflect what they have watched. It seems we have put together a team and squad worth more than the individual component parts - we've got some skill, pace and flair, allied to squad depth, organisation, tactical adaptability and a hell of a lot of fight.

Sure, there will be some bad days ahead but we've shown enough so far to suggest we can give it a good go in this division, while hopefully pushing ahead of some of teams with 'superior' squads and delusional fans.
 
Big Ron said:
I've seen a few comments from opposing fans this season to the effect of 'you wouldn't swap any of Oxford's players with ours', which although occasionally true, doesn't actually reflect what they have watched. It seems we have put together a team and squad worth more than the individual component parts - we've got some skill, pace and flair, allied to squad depth, organisation, tactical adaptability and a hell of a lot of fight.

Sure, there will be some bad days ahead but we've shown enough so far to suggest we can give it a good go in this division, while hopefully pushing ahead of some of teams with 'superior' squads and delusional fans.
Click to expand...
I agree we’ve recruited really well a couple of Wiley old dogs who’ve been there and done it phillips, Vaulks, Dembele all three know how to win a game can hold the ball up well and rarely give it away or lose possession whilst bringing others into play. Something we’ve lacked, Dembele has a lot of quality’s going forward also impressed with his defensive side to his game head and shoulders above anyone last weekend, real class act. Got a few fringe players in who just need to be given a opportunity in mizouni, Placheta and they look very good from what I’ve seen this season albeit not that many minutes so far. Of course the players we all thought could step up have done and look very good, brannagan, Moore, brown, goodhram, Rodrigues,Harris oh and not forgetting Edwards who on his day is unplayable exciting times. I would be worried if Dembele, Edwards we’re running at me there gonna give some defences and absolute nightmare. Stokes 22 last Saturday looked like he’d had enough of Dembele after 50 minutes of chasing his shadow he looked like he’d been in the ring with Tyson for 12rounds.Long may it continue up the yellows
 
MarkG said:
www.walesonline.co.uk

Erol Bulut is in Cardiff City last chance saloon, he must change now to survive

Bulut’s football and tactics have bored Bluebirds fans and pressure is on for manager to change his ways for Leeds United clash
www.walesonline.co.uk www.walesonline.co.uk
"Derby picked three players Cardiff discarded - Ebou Adams, Curtis Nelson and Nathaniel Mendez Laing, who each starred in their team’s 1-0 win. Oxford United have four - Mark Harris, Will Vaulks, Joe Bennett and Ciaron Brown.

Cardiff have replaced those seven several times over and clearly have a much superior squad, yet they languish at the bottom while Derby and Oxford are in the top eight.

Good luck to those two, but that can’t be deemed acceptable in the Welsh capital."
Click to expand...

Are Cardiff a bigger club than Derby?
 
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