I think it will be the latter - although it's not impossible that one side or the other will make an attempt to secede if things get too bad.
I'm sort of resigned to it - if states like Missouri and Mississippi want to take their laws back to the 1890s then I feel a little sorry for progressive people living there, but they'll just have to move to one of the coasts.
But it's why the Supreme Court's gun decision was so maddening this week - I'm actually OK with more rights being pushed back to the states because New Jersey is a liberal melting pot, and lawmakers here are likely to enact rules that roughly match my world view.
But New Yorkers want greater restrictions on the ability to carry weapons, and the conservative court said that weren't allowed to have them because in 1789, it was written in the constitution that "A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed" and six of the judges think that a clause written 230 years old should be interpreted literally today. They'll be coming for our NJ gun restrictions next.