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Almost There!

S

Shaun Rice

Well-known member
We’re almost there! I think one win will do it.

Bury 30 points: they’re gone, can’t catch us maximum points achievable 45.

Northampton 40 points: Only have 5 games left and they need 3 wins or 2 wins and 3 draws to catch us.
Blackpool A - Lose
Bury A - Win
Plymouth H - Lose
Walsall A - Lose / Draw
Oldham H - Lose/ Draw
Given current form i can’t see them achieving more then 45 point maybe they could pick up a win from Oldham or Walsall if they’re already safe for 46/49 points.

MK Dons 42 points: only have 5 games left, 2 against top 6. They have winnable games against Doncaster at home and Bradford away but they also have to go to Southend.
Doncaster H - Win
Southend A - Lose / draw
Bradford A - Win
Scunthorpe H - Lose
Shrewsbury A - Lose
I think they’ll finish on 48/49 points.

Rochdale 42 points: They have a terrible run in! 7 games left but 4 against top 6. They’ll beat Bradford at home but I think will need to beat Oldham and us to stay up.
Wigan H - Lose
Peterborough A - Lose
Oldham H - Win/Draw
Bradford H - Win
Plymouth H - Lose
Oxford A - Lose/Draw
Charlton H - Lose
I think they’ll finish on 48/49 points.

AFC Wimbledon 42 points: will be interesting because they have to play Walsall and Oldham at home. I think we need Oldham and Walsall to find some form win.
Charlton H - Lose
Walsall H - Too close to call
Oldham H - Too close to call
Wigan A - Lose
Bradford A - Win
Bury H - Win
I think they’ll finish on 48/51 points.

Oldham and Walsall have games in hand and easy run ins (each with 4 games against teams at the bottom). I think they’ll both be above us come the end of the season.

With us on 47 points if we can pick up just 1 win I think we’ll be okay.

Please feel free correct my mistakes :-)
 
I too tried doing the permeatations the other day but it made my head hurt. The only conclusion I came to was that Bury are down and Northampton probably are too - which is all fairly obvious!

It’s easy to predict how the sides down at the bottom will do against Wigan and Blackburn but almost impossible to say how we’d do against the also rans like Doncaster and Gillingham plus each other. Walsall got a lucky win yesterday against Bury with a daft own goal and Wimbledon were minutes away from an important win too. Things can change in an instant.

Invariably there’s always one side that hits form towards the end and given Oldham’s run in against some fellow strugglers and the much improved form of Rochdale, I think they’ll both be safe. In 2006, none of us saw Atkins’ tactics helping out Torquay so much so I’ll only rest easy once we’ve got 50+ points.
 
Shaun Rice said:
We’re almost there! I think one win will do it.

Bury 30 points: they’re gone, can’t catch us maximum points achievable 45.

Northampton 40 points: Only have 5 games left and they need 3 wins or 2 wins and 3 draws to catch us.
Blackpool A - Lose
Bury A - Win
Plymouth H - Lose
Walsall A - Lose / Draw
Oldham H - Lose/ Draw
Given current form i can’t see them achieving more then 45 point maybe they could pick up a win from Oldham or Walsall if they’re already safe for 46/49 points.

MK Dons 42 points: only have 5 games left, 2 against top 6. They have winnable games against Doncaster at home and Bradford away but they also have to go to Southend.
Doncaster H - Win
Southend A - Lose / draw
Bradford A - Win
Scunthorpe H - Lose
Shrewsbury A - Lose
I think they’ll finish on 48/49 points.

Rochdale 42 points: They have a terrible run in! 7 games left but 4 against top 6. They’ll beat Bradford at home but I think will need to beat Oldham and us to stay up.
Wigan H - Lose
Peterborough A - Lose
Oldham H - Win/Draw
Bradford H - Win
Plymouth H - Lose
Oxford A - Lose/Draw
Charlton H - Lose
I think they’ll finish on 48/49 points.

AFC Wimbledon 42 points: will be interesting because they have to play Walsall and Oldham at home. I think we need Oldham and Walsall to find some form win.
Charlton H - Lose
Walsall H - Too close to call
Oldham H - Too close to call
Wigan A - Lose
Bradford A - Win
Bury H - Win
I think they’ll finish on 48/51 points.

Oldham and Walsall have games in hand and easy run ins (each with 4 games against teams at the bottom). I think they’ll both be above us come the end of the season.

With us on 47 points if we can pick up just 1 win I think we’ll be okay.

Please feel free correct my mistakes :)
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Presumptuous to say Oldham and Walsall have easy run ins. If their games are going to be easy they should not be in the position they are today. They will be just as nervous as the rest of us.
 
I don't
Shaun Rice said:
We’re almost there! I think one win will do it.

Bury 30 points: they’re gone, can’t catch us maximum points achievable 45.

Northampton 40 points: Only have 5 games left and they need 3 wins or 2 wins and 3 draws to catch us.
Blackpool A - Lose
Bury A - Win
Plymouth H - Lose
Walsall A - Lose / Draw
Oldham H - Lose/ Draw
Given current form i can’t see them achieving more then 45 point maybe they could pick up a win from Oldham or Walsall if they’re already safe for 46/49 points.

MK Dons 42 points: only have 5 games left, 2 against top 6. They have winnable games against Doncaster at home and Bradford away but they also have to go to Southend.
Doncaster H - Win
Southend A - Lose / draw
Bradford A - Win
Scunthorpe H - Lose
Shrewsbury A - Lose
I think they’ll finish on 48/49 points.

Rochdale 42 points: They have a terrible run in! 7 games left but 4 against top 6. They’ll beat Bradford at home but I think will need to beat Oldham and us to stay up.
Wigan H - Lose
Peterborough A - Lose
Oldham H - Win/Draw
Bradford H - Win
Plymouth H - Lose
Oxford A - Lose/Draw
Charlton H - Lose
I think they’ll finish on 48/49 points.

AFC Wimbledon 42 points: will be interesting because they have to play Walsall and Oldham at home. I think we need Oldham and Walsall to find some form win.
Charlton H - Lose
Walsall H - Too close to call
Oldham H - Too close to call
Wigan A - Lose
Bradford A - Win
Bury H - Win
I think they’ll finish on 48/51 points.

Oldham and Walsall have games in hand and easy run ins (each with 4 games against teams at the bottom). I think they’ll both be above us come the end of the season.

With us on 47 points if we can pick up just 1 win I think we’ll be okay.

Please feel free correct my mistakes :)
Click to expand...

I do not think you are far off. Maybe 4 points plus GD?
However, that win is being taken for granted, which is rather odd given form. From memory, we have won two matches this calendar year out of about 15. Peterborough at home, and Charlton away (somewhat fortuitously and owing to profound tactical mistakes by our current manager).
So over a fairly protracted period we have been winning roughly one in every 7 games. That is not a team to rely on for that one win you are talking about. Though I guess one could argue that we are due one sometime before the end of the season.
Analyse matters further and you will find that the goals have been drying up at a rather dangerous rate since Jack Payne left. There is almost no creativity in the squad at all.
Basically, we are hanging on for dear life, relying on our bright start to the season to keep our heads just above water and hoping that the finishing line comes just soon enough before our 6 month long slide takes us under.
Like you I think/hope that we will scrape it. But the odds rarely lie and my bookie cut us to our lowest price yet after yesterday's shitty performance. 5/1 for 21st place seems about right (We were 25/1 in December) but 5/1 shots do win reasonably regularly. The players need to step up and take more responsibility.
Last April, I went to the Den and saw an outstanding, balanced young Oxford team take apart a team about to be promoted. From there to here in twelve months is an astonishing demise that is not going to be easy to turn around.
 
I just posted this on the League One Survival thread. Lots of twists and turns to come yet.


17 Oxford P40 Pts47 GD -6

18 Walsall P40 Pts47 GD-10

19 Oldham P39 Pts 44 GD-14

20 AFC Wimbledon. P40 Pts 43 GD-13

————————————————————-

21 Rochdale P39 Pts 42 GD-6

22 Milton Keynes Dons P41 Pts 42 GD-18

23 Northampton P41 Pts 40 GD-33

24 Bury P41 Pts 30 GD-30


08/04/2018. Squeaky bum time. Could come down to Goal Difference.:eek:

Bury have gone.
Northampton look doomed.
MK Dons & Wimbledon to fill the final two relegation spots??

Our final league game of the season is at home to Rochdale, what if both Oxford & Rochdale both just need a draw to stay up and play out a 0-0!

Edit: Rochdale is our last Home league game of the season. Blackburn away is our final match of the campaign.
 
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I looked last week and reckoned that Bury and Northampton were gone, looking at the cobblers fixtures. Frankly I think 47 and our GD is already enough and the teams below us are dire. I cant see MK Dons picking up more than 2-3 points and the same for Wimbledon. Rochdale ought to be fine and Oldham too but I think the bottom 4 will soon be established as AFC, MKD and NTFC/BFC. ...and breathe
 
I think Rochdale will pick up more points than you think,i can see them winning against Oldham,Bradford,Plymouth and us.
 
Ac
FalmouthOx said:
I looked last week and reckoned that Bury and Northampton were gone, looking at the cobblers fixtures. Frankly I think 47 and our GD is already enough and the teams below us are dire. I cant see MK Dons picking up more than 2-3 points and the same for Wimbledon. Rochdale ought to be fine and Oldham too but I think the bottom 4 will soon be established as AFC, MKD and NTFC/BFC. ...and breathe
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Actually, our GD is no longer as advantageous as it was, compared to our other direct rivals. And if we were to stay on 47 points it would take a battering of at least 6, and more likely 10 goals against (in addition to current 6) and become a liability.
Nope, we need to front up and actually win a game. To think otherwise is begging for Lady Luck to slap us in the face.
 
Don’t forget we are at home again next Saturday so we’ll be okay for at least a draw against sarfend! Oh wait a minute....
 
Lundinsponytail said:
Ac

Actually, our GD is no longer as advantageous as it was, compared to our other direct rivals. And if we were to stay on 47 points it would take a battering of at least 6, and more likely 10 goals against (in addition to current 6) and become a liability.
Nope, we need to front up and actually win a game. To think otherwise is begging for Lady Luck to slap us in the face.
Click to expand...

And we have Blackburn and Wigan away, so I'm sure our GD will take a battering.
 
We’ll beat Blackburn on the last day of the season. They’ll win the league away at Charlton, collect the trophy at our game with them but will be pissed up without a care!
 
Not far off I reckon.

We need 3-4 points. So a win and a draw is likely to be enough (from the three home games we have). Three points may do it (the traditional 50 points which is often enough).

Our GD is far better than Oldham, AFC and MK.

The good thing is that we seem to be a little more solid at home ( 5 points in the last three home games and prior to that a pretty decent performance against Plymouth)
 
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