50% capacity

Is that for vulnerable people or for everyone? (I'm not trying to be pedantic I just wanted to understand the points being made).
All adults. We are two months from anyone over 18 being double jabbed if they want it. Considering people aged 18-30 are the biggest movers of the virus (especially once all restrictions are dropped), and the massive benefits that are seen after a second dose such is the efficacy, logic dictates that this is how you really get to say, “We did everything we could - it’s time.”

We’re close to achieving this. We are nearly there, but I don’t think it fits the calendar.
 
Unfortunately, I think the chances of many people *not* going completely apesh!t on the 19th is 0%.

I really do think they ought to have opened up (they had to) but with some minor restrictions in place - masks on public transport and in shops, limited numbers at indoor venues (unfortunately), social distancing still being a 'thing' wherever possible. Wearing a mask if you have a sniffle should become a polite thing to do and will help with more than just this particular disease. Once cases start going down, increase the number of people allowed in indoor venues as soon as possible.

I can see infection numbers going sky high and hospitals being put under extreme pressure - I know a smaller proportion of people are being hospitalised, but a small proportion of a large number could well be significant.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the US, where some States have dropped all restrictions. I think New York for example dropped nearly all restrictions on 15th June after 70% of adults were vaccinated?
 
All adults. We are two months from anyone over 18 being double jabbed if they want it. Considering people aged 18-30 are the biggest movers of the virus (especially once all restrictions are dropped), and the massive benefits that are seen after a second dose such is the efficacy, logic dictates that this is how you really get to say, “We did everything we could - it’s time.”

We’re close to achieving this. We are nearly there, but I don’t think it fits the calendar.
Out of interest, do you know what the death rate is amongst 18-30 year olds? I've looked at the ONS at their data and it seems that from 29 June 20 - 31 Jan 21, 2.1 out of every 100,000 people aged 20-29 died. That apparently translates into 80 deaths in total amongst the age group, over a 7 month period.

If we spread that rate out over the next 2 months, we can expect around 23 people in that category to die before September. Except, it'll be much lower than 23 people because all vulnerable 20-29 year olds are now double jabbed. The number of unvaccinated 20-29 year old lives saved by continuing to impose restrictions over 8 weeks could literally be in the single digits.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...d/covid-19-confirmed-deaths-in-england-report - this is where I got it from, I can't read this kind of data very well so correct me if my numbers are wrong.
 
Out of interest, do you know what the death rate is amongst 18-30 year olds? I've looked at the ONS at their data and it seems that from 29 June 20 - 31 Jan 21, 2.1 out of every 100,000 people aged 20-29 died. That apparently translates into 80 deaths in total amongst the age group, over a 7 month period.

If we spread that rate out over the next 2 months, we can expect around 23 people in that category to die before September. Except, it'll be much lower than 23 people because all vulnerable 20-29 year olds are now double jabbed. The number of unvaccinated 20-29 year old lives saved by continuing to impose restrictions over 8 weeks could literally be in the single digits.
You know that they aren't very vulnerable but can spread it, yes? They keep it circulating and mutating
 
Out of interest, do you know what the death rate is amongst 18-30 year olds? I've looked at the ONS at their data and it seems that from 29 June 20 - 31 Jan 21, 2.1 out of every 100,000 people aged 20-29 died. That apparently translates into 80 deaths in total amongst the age group, over a 7 month period.

If we spread that rate out over the next 2 months, we can expect around 23 people in that category to die before September. Except, it'll be much lower than 23 people because all vulnerable 20-29 year olds are now double jabbed. The number of unvaccinated 20-29 year old lives saved by continuing to impose restrictions over 8 weeks could literally be in the single digits.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...d/covid-19-confirmed-deaths-in-england-report - this is where I got it from, I can't read this kind of data very well so correct me if my numbers are wrong.
It’s not the death rates of that age group that I’m concerned about, it’s the spread that comes from them. They are the carriers who move the virus around for others to catch, and are the great unvaccinated mixers that give birth to variants. They go here, there and everywhere more than any other age group. We really should be wary of allowing people of that age who aren’t double dosed, and would therefore be much less likely to catch and spread it than when single dosed at best, to mix inside clubs and venues, stand shoulder to shoulder at the bar while sloshing pints over each other and shouting about, going to gigs and sweating on each other etc. It’s a big risk and we are so close to not needing to take it. For the first time we can see the end, but it does feel like it’s being seen as an inconvenience because it doesn’t arrive in time for the summer holidays. I honestly believe that’s the primary driver here, but obviously that’s merely an opinion.

We’re all pig sick of this thing and it’s never going away - totally get that. Lots of damage being done besides covid, too. Mental health, operation backlogs, cancer treatment to name just a few. It’s horrific, and we need to get out as soon as we safely can. I’m just really concerned that we’re running a massive risk based on giving people a summer holiday, so that they start cheering, when come September we could be double dosed and be standing on much safer ground.

I appreciate other people might feel differently.
 
We’ve just had the first conversation at work on policy concerning those who are not jabbed and their right to use the office and customer’s rights to insist that only vaccinated members of our staff travel to their sites.

This is going to roll and roll.
 
You know that they aren't very vulnerable but can spread it, yes? They keep it circulating and mutating

It’s not the death rates of that age group that I’m concerned about, it’s the spread that comes from them. They are the carriers who move the virus around for others to catch, and are the great unvaccinated mixers that give birth to variants. They go here, there and everywhere more than any other age group. We really should be wary of allowing people of that age who aren’t double dosed, and would therefore be much less likely to catch and spread it than when single dosed at best, to mix inside clubs and venues, stand shoulder to shoulder at the bar while sloshing pints over each other and shouting about, going to gigs and sweating on each other etc. It’s a big risk and we are so close to not needing to take it. For the first time we can see the end, but it does feel like it’s being seen as an inconvenience because it doesn’t arrive in time for the summer holidays. I honestly believe that’s the primary driver here, but obviously that’s merely an opinion.

We’re all pig sick of this thing and it’s never going away - totally get that. Lots of damage being done besides covid, too. Mental health, operation backlogs, cancer treatment to name just a few. It’s horrific, and we need to get out as soon as we safely can. I’m just really concerned that we’re running a massive risk based on giving people a summer holiday, so that they start cheering, when come September we could be double dosed and be standing on much safer ground.

I appreciate other people might feel differently.
But the people who are vulnerable to the spreading by young people are all already vaccinated. So the excess spread is largely harmless. We still have open borders and connections to India where over a billion unvaccinated people live. So you're correct in saying it'll never go away.

If the release doesn't arrive now it won't arrive in 2021. Schools are back in September and cases will rise sharply. Booster jabs will be needed as the previously vulnerable become vulnerable again. Most people will be indoors again where the spread is faster. This seems like the perfect time.
 
It’s not the death rates of that age group that I’m concerned about, it’s the spread that comes from them. They are the carriers who move the virus around for others to catch, and are the great unvaccinated mixers that give birth to variants. They go here, there and everywhere more than any other age group. We really should be wary of allowing people of that age who aren’t double dosed, and would therefore be much less likely to catch and spread it than when single dosed at best, to mix inside clubs and venues, stand shoulder to shoulder at the bar while sloshing pints over each other and shouting about, going to gigs and sweating on each other etc. It’s a big risk and we are so close to not needing to take it. For the first time we can see the end, but it does feel like it’s being seen as an inconvenience because it doesn’t arrive in time for the summer holidays. I honestly believe that’s the primary driver here, but obviously that’s merely an opinion.

We’re all pig sick of this thing and it’s never going away - totally get that. Lots of damage being done besides covid, too. Mental health, operation backlogs, cancer treatment to name just a few. It’s horrific, and we need to get out as soon as we safely can. I’m just really concerned that we’re running a massive risk based on giving people a summer holiday, so that they start cheering, when come September we could be double dosed and be standing on much safer ground.

I appreciate other people might feel differently.

Was with you up until the last line, I simply can't accept the fact that other people might feel differently - ever.
 
But the people who are vulnerable to the spreading by young people are all already vaccinated. So the excess spread is largely harmless. We still have open borders and connections to India where over a billion unvaccinated people live. So you're correct in saying it'll never go away.

If the release doesn't arrive now it won't arrive in 2021. Schools are back in September and cases will rise sharply. Booster jabs will be needed as the previously vulnerable become vulnerable again. Most people will be indoors again where the spread is faster. This seems like the perfect time.
To be fair to you that's what Chris Whitty said. But putting out a more cautious message with just a few measures retained would keep people in the mindset of behaving cautiously and considerately. However this government is more concerned with being popular, especially among the sort of people who are likely to vote for them.
 
To be fair to you that's what Chris Whitty said. But putting out a more cautious message with just a few measures retained would keep people in the mindset of behaving cautiously and considerately. However this government is more concerned with being popular, especially among the sort of people who are likely to vote for them.
Yes, and irresponsible behaviour is going to be frustrating to watch. It's obviously going to happen - take Sunday as an example if England win - there will be unmasked faces and flailing limbs all over central London, strangers snogging in the street like some sort of American WWII homecoming parade.

Provided your elderly loved ones are double jabbed and you wear a mask when you feel the need to do so - I'm not sure what more we should be asking of people.
 
To be fair to you that's what Chris Whitty said. But putting out a more cautious message with just a few measures retained would keep people in the mindset of behaving cautiously and considerately. However this government is more concerned with being popular, especially among the sort of people who are likely to vote for them.

Government represent the whole population not just vulnerable people,the ones hiding behind the sofa or the ones getting furlough still. The government also realise if they postpone lifting restrictions to September or October the NHS will be overwhelmed with the start of the flu season. This is like brexit in a way that not everyone is going to agree when is the right time. People need to realise Covid is not going away anytime soon and we need to learn to live with it.
 
But the people who are vulnerable to the spreading by young people are all already vaccinated. So the excess spread is largely harmless.
Mass spreading is what made us one of the only countries on earth to produce a variant, which certainly isn’t harmless. Unvaccinated, mass mixing on the levels we are about to indulge in, with basically no restrictions of any kind and a message of “throw your masks in the bin forever if you want to”, is a huge risk. We’re close to full vaccination, but it would mean ‘cancelling summer’, and I think that’s been the main cause for concern.

Mind you, I’m not a doctor. Although I will check your prostate if you’re ever worried, in an act of selflessness and dare I say, heroism.
 
Mass spreading is what made us one of the only countries on earth to produce a variant, which certainly isn’t harmless. Unvaccinated, mass mixing on the levels we are about to indulge in, with basically no restrictions of any kind and a message of “throw your masks in the bin forever if you want to”, is a huge risk. We’re close to full vaccination, but it would mean ‘cancelling summer’, and I think that’s been the main cause for concern.

Mind you, I’m not a doctor. Although I will check your prostate if you’re ever worried, in an act of selflessness and dare I say, heroism.
Alright, but after what happened last time I must insist that you only use one finger.
 
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