Matches 27/04/2021 - Playoff pack games

[Mike_H]

Realistically and in summary we need to better at least one of Portsmouth’s results in the final two games to make a top 6 finish.
the last five matches “points per games” gained by the teams in with a shout as follows -
Sunderland - W0, D2, L3 (2 points) - points per game 0.4 (2 games remaining 0.8 points)
Blackpool - W2, D1, L2 (7 points) - points per game 1.4 (3 games remaining 4.2 points)
Portsmouth - W1, D2, L2 (5 points) - points per game 1.0 (2 games remaining 2.0 points)
Oxford Utd - W4, D0, L1 (12 points) - points per game 2.4 (2 games remaining 4.8 points)
Charlton Ath - W2, D2, L1 (8 points) - points per game 1.6 (3 games remaining 4.8 points)

So based on the form of the teams being maintained during this period and average points per game over the last 5 rounds of matches the league positions would finish as follows.

4th Blackpool - 75.2 points (to finish with 75 points (W1, D1, L1))
5th Sunderland - 73.8 points (to finish with 74 points (W0, D1, L1))
6th Oxford Utd - 72.8 points (to finish with 72 points (W1, D1, L0)) (better goal difference than Charlton)
7th Charlton Ath - 71.8 points (to finish with 72 points (W1, D2, L0))
———————————————-
8th Portsmouth - 71.0 points (to finish with 71 points (W0, D2, L0))

THE FUTURE IS YELLOW, THE FUTURE IS OXFORD.

Corrections above - had to find something to do to stop me biting my nails until Saturday.

 

[tonto]

To sum it up ,if we win on saturday we will still have a shout next Sunday. Or could two Charlton wins finish our chances?

 

[Robie]

To sum it up ,if we win on saturday we will still have a shout next Sunday. Or could two Charlton wins finish our chances?

Charlton need to win all 3 to jump ahead of us, if we win our two, without a significant swing on the 5 goal difference.

 

[Hamiltons Knee]

Simple to understand really.
We must win both of our games while Charlton and Portsmouth must fail to win one of their remaining games.
If Tuesday was anything to go by this could go down to the last few minutes of the season.

 

[Robie]

We could get a point on Saturday and everyone else lose their games.

It's not over until mathematically over!

 

[Pompeyyellows]

Let’s keep it simply win both games and let others worry about us

 

[ljs]

Simple to understand really.
We must win both of our games while Charlton and Portsmouth must fail to win one of their remaining games.
If Tuesday was anything to go by this could go down to the last few minutes of the season.

Or, Sunderland lose both of theirs or Blackpool lose 2 out of their 3.

 

[OX14]

Or, Sunderland lose both of theirs or Blackpool lose 2 out of their 3.

Blackpool are only 3 points ahead of us. So if we win our remaining 2 games we can overtake them if they fail to gain 4 points out of the last 3 games. Its unlikely with their fixtures but if they lose either against Northampton away or Doncaster at home they will go in to the final game needed atleast a point against Bristol Rovers to finish above us.

 

[Wallop]

Blackpool are only 3 points ahead of us. So if we win our remaining 2 games we can overtake them if they fail to gain 4 points out of the last 3 games. Its unlikely with their fixtures but if they lose either against Northampton away or Doncaster at home they will go in to the final game needed atleast a point against Bristol Rovers to finish above us.

True but that would be massive straw clutching - the chances of them not getting a point against an out of form already relegated team would be tiny.

 

[MJB]

True but that would be massive straw clutching - the chances of them not getting a point against an out of form already relegated team would be tiny.

Maybe Rovers will do us a favour as they want to help out their old friend Matty Taylor.

 

[OX14]

True but that would be massive straw clutching - the chances of them not getting a point against an out of form already relegated team would be tiny.

Stranger things have happened though. Lots of twists and turns left we just need to make sure we win both of ours as it would be a real kick in the nuts if we screw up one of our games.

 

[Wallop]

Stranger things have happened though. Lots of twists and turns left we just need to make sure we win both of ours as it would be a real kick in the nuts if we screw up one of our games.

Very true and that’s quite likely - we are Evens to win on Saturday according to the bookies So 50/50 and then we would need to beat an in-form Burton.

 

[uptheus]

Let’s keep it simply win both games and let others worry about us

I think this is where we’ll slip up unfortunately, but hoping that’s not the case.

 

[Foley]

Very true and that’s quite likely - we are Evens to win on Saturday according to the bookies So 50/50 and then we would need to beat an in-form Burton.

After our start most would have taken trying to beat Shrewsbury and Burton to probably make the play offs.
It is the classic take each game as it comes. We know that we have to beat Shrewsbury. We know that we are the better team and in decent form (12 points in the past 5 games?)
Beat Shrewsbury and then look at the table!!

 

[IsleofWightYellow]

After our start most would have taken trying to beat Shrewsbury and Burton to probably make the play offs.
It is the classic take each game as it comes. We know that we have to beat Shrewsbury. We know that we are the better team and in decent form (12 points in the past 5 games?)
Beat Shrewsbury and then look at the table!!

Or draw if Portsmouth and Charlton lose!... (but yes, let’s win)

 

[Wallop]

Or draw if Portsmouth and Charlton lose!... (but yes, let’s win)

Wouldn't be great because then Charlton could win their last two and would finish above us. Would also keep Pompey in the hunt with a big win on the last day even if we beat Burton.

It would also technically keep MK Dons in the play-off picture!

Let's just agree that we should win our game and for Charlton/Pompey to both do no better than draw, then it is 100% in our hands.

 

[IsleofWightYellow]

Wouldn't be great because then Charlton could win their last two and would finish above us. Would also keep Pompey in the hunt with a big win on the last day even if we beat Burton.

It would also technically keep MK Dons in the play-off picture!

Let's just agree that we should win our game and for Charlton/Pompey to both do no better than draw, then it is 100% in our hands.

True, but it would technically be better than us all winning, wouldn’t it?

Doesn’t it go, in order of preference:

1. Us win, they lose
2. Us win, they draw
3. Us draw, they lose
4. Us win, they win
5. Us draw, they draw
6. Us lose, they lose
7. Us lose, they draw
8. Us draw, they win
9. Us lose, they win

 

[m]

True, but it would technically be better than us all winning, wouldn’t it?

Doesn’t it go, in order of preference:

1. Us win, they lose
2. Us win, they draw
3. Us draw, they lose
4. Us win, they win
5. Us draw, they draw
6. Us lose, they lose
7. Us lose, they draw
8. Us draw, they win
9. Us lose, they win

Thanks, could you repeat with Pompey and Charlton treated discretely?

 

[ttg17]

Thanks, could you repeat with Pompey and Charlton treated discretely?

The key one for Saturday imo is if we better Pompey's result. We need them to drop points in their last couple of games and, on paper, it doesn't look nailed on that they will - Wimbledon A probably the more difficult of the two fixtures. Charlton's cockup in stoppage time on Tuesday (cracking goal btw) means that pretty much whatever happens they need to get results against Hull and Lincoln next week, so I'm less bothered about them winning on the weekend (Accy A). Of course, if they do lose, or even draw, regardless of what we or Pompey do, given their final two fixtures they're basically out of the running. But it won't matter if Pompey better our result, as we then can't catch them.

 

[horseman]

With so many games crammed close together it's difficult to recall certain things with assurance but Shrewsbury were not that bad and had 2/3 chances before we scored if memory serves