Home Match Build Up 19/10/2021 L1: OUFC v Shrewsbury Town

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Malc

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Now is the winter of our discontent, Time to prove that we can score goals, and lots of them. Shrewbury are very definitely beatable so lets do it and restore the faith.
 
Stevens
Long Moore Thornily Seddon
Gorrin
Brannagan Kane
Forde Sykes
Taylor

A little bounce back from the team tomorrow and 3-1 victory.
 
A part of me wants to see the same side but with Whyte on the right and Henry centrally. Those 20 off minutes start of second half aside from the important bit, putting the ball in the net, we were brilliant at times - but I don't think some of the players will be able to start both, especially Gav recovering from Covid. Tempted by a 4231:

Stevens
Long Moore Thornily Seddon
Gorrin Kane
Forde Brannagan Holland
Taylor

I think Cam in the 10 with Gorrin and Kane at the base will give us a good mix of defensive steel and attacking threat without going too attacking like against Plymouth and leaving the FBs stuffed. Would also be fine if Bodin/Williams/Sykes/Henry came in on the wings but, Stevenage aside, think Forde has had a good season and deserves the nod and Holland is growing in confidence and needs to keep getting minutes.

IMO 7 points from the 9 remaining in October will put us in a good spot going into a tough November with Ipswich and Wigan away, and Rotherham and Fleetwood at home. Very doable and would put us on 25 from 15 which is a decent return and on PPG is on course for a low playoff finish. 6 wouldn't be awful but less than that and questions will need to be asked.
 
We'll bounce back( after Saturday's damp squib finishing, and defensive clangers display) with a decent win under lights I reckon
 
Stevens
Long Moore Thornily Seddon
Gorrin
Brannagan Kane
Forde Sykes
Taylor

A little bounce back from the team tomorrow and 3-1 victory.
I would be inclined to start Forde at RB give Long some rest he just didn’t look like himself on Saturday out Whyte on the right wing
 
I would be inclined to start Forde at RB give Long some rest he just didn’t look like himself on Saturday out Whyte on the right wing
You've got to start Henry despite his misses on Saturday. I wouldn't be averse to giving Forde a game at the back and resting Whyte. Maybe coming on as sub as a pure winger would give him the chance to really go for it and express himself.
 
You've got to start Henry despite his misses on Saturday. I wouldn't be averse to giving Forde a game at the back and resting Whyte. Maybe coming on as sub as a pure winger would give him the chance to really go for it and express himself.
Yes you’re right Henry is still a class player
 
Henry needs to be benched to save his legs. I’d play pretty much the side that played v Wednesday but Williams in on left for Holland.

Forde is a lot more important to this team than many think.
 
Henry needs to be benched to save his legs. I’d play pretty much the side that played v Wednesday but Williams in on left for Holland.

Forde is a lot more important to this team than many think.
I thought Holland was pretty good for an hour on Saturday, made a couple of sensational runs. But we've got lots of decent options going forward, any of various ones should be enough to beat Shrewsbury.
 
Henry needs to be benched to save his legs. I’d play pretty much the side that played v Wednesday but Williams in on left for Holland.

Forde is a lot more important to this team than many think.

Henry is 6 month older than Taylor. Rest Henry, rest Taylor ? Not really sure what you’re on about here. Henry is up there as our most obvious goal threat, never mind provider of goals like on Saturday.

Henry only played 10 minutes at Sheffield in our last league game and basically has had 10 to 14 days off since then (not sure if he played against Stevenage ?). Plus it’s only mid October, the season has barely kicked off.

Had we won on Saturday I could almost see some logic in resting Henry and Taylor but not now. This is must win.
 
Henry is 6 month older than Taylor. Rest Henry, rest Taylor ? Not really sure what you’re on about here. Henry is up there as our most obvious goal threat, never mind provider of goals like on Saturday.

Henry only played 10 minutes at Sheffield in our last league game and basically has had 10 to 14 days off since then (not sure if he played against Stevenage ?). Plus it’s only mid October, the season has barely kicked off.

Had we won on Saturday I could almost see some logic in resting Henry and Taylor but not now. This is must win.

Hurrah! First one of the season? :)
 
Hurrah! First one of the season? :)


Haha, well it isn't literally a must win but the likes of Sunderland, Wycombe, Wigan, Plymouth etc are looking pretty relentless and digging out results from losing positions. You'd think Lincoln, Ipswich, Charlton and maybe Pompey will eventually get their acts together and string a few results together and the latter three have some big support if they get on a roll and get their fans on side.

I don't think we can really afford to lose two in a row at home if we have genuine hopes of having a proper go this season.
 

Some interesting stats I saw on Twitter earlier.

If you look at League One, we are second in expected points per game. Not including penalties, we have the second-highest xG per game and the fourth-lowest xG against per game in the league. By every statistical metric, we're basically in the top four or five performers in the league. We're consistently creating more and better chances than our opponents.

However, in terms of the actual goals scored and conceded, we are twelfth and eighth, respectively. That's a massive drop-off.

xG is obviously not a perfect metric. It doesn't tell the full story. But here, it reflects what I think we're all seeing: that, basically, we're creating loads of chances that we're missing, and our opponents aren't creating very many but are scoring them. It's frustrating, but it shows, to me, that we're doing everything right (up until the finish, that is). Over the course of a season, statistical anomalies like these tend to even themselves out. We're not going to keep missing hatfuls of chances, and opponents aren't going to keep scoring every half chance they get. It's pretty encouraging imo - second in xP is impressive. We're a very good side, we just need to keep the faith in what we're doing (and start bloody putting away our chances).
 
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