I wonder whether, in a weird way, we have almost done too well, too early under Rowett. We’re in the slightly odd position now of, in a league table context, almost going ahead too early in game where we’re underdogs. There starts to be a bit of a tendency to stick with what you have, rather than continuing to push for goals. The danger there is always that you get hit with a sucker punch and end up losing.
Leave out Burnley - because going to Turf Moor was always going to be something of a free hit - but both last night and in 60 mins v 10 men v Bristol City we’ve really created precious little in games where we’re underdogs had the opportunity to turn the screw. Against Stoke, too, we didn’t do enough to earn a win. I do get the logic of keeping it tight - if you score you might win, but if you don’t concede you won’t lose - but if we fail to win on Saturday and we put in a similarly toothless performance going forward, it’s going to feel very much like four points dropped this week.
A win will calm the nerves that are at risk of starting to jangle a little. That said, looking at it objectively, I think we have every right to be confident. We’ve been generally very good against the worst sides at home this year, and if Pompey are to stay up it’ll be a result of their home form, too. It’s also pretty helpful when a team has one obvious outlet, as you know you can focus on shutting him down and I suspect that, while Murphy is obviously the danger man, his third game in a week will mean he tires earlier (especially if PP is on his game and he needs to track back).
It’s going to be tense but, if we win, I think we can start looking forward to next year. We’ll be over 40 points then, only needing a handful more over the final dozen games or so to guarantee safety, and with a handful of teams below us needing to overtake us. A massive game - I wouldn’t quite say ‘must win’ yet, but we absolutely must not lose.