Home Match Build-Up 15/02/25: Championship - OUFC v Portsmouth

What will the result be?


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Think I'd go:

Cumming
Kioso Helik Brown Leigh
Maton Brannagan
Placheta Rodrigues Dembele
Harris

The key from a defensive perspective is nullifying Murphy, and I think Matos would be better at backing up Kioso than Vaulks, as he covers short distances so quickly.

That front four should be enough to cause problems against the league's second worst defence, but if it's not working i'd like to see Goodrham and Mills on with enough time to properly get into the game.

We also need to make the most of set pieces. They were poor on the whole against Derby.
Cam Bran is fine on taking Fk's - corners hower, he's a bitshit (IMO)
 
I wonder whether, in a weird way, we have almost done too well, too early under Rowett. We’re in the slightly odd position now of, in a league table context, almost going ahead too early in game where we’re underdogs. There starts to be a bit of a tendency to stick with what you have, rather than continuing to push for goals. The danger there is always that you get hit with a sucker punch and end up losing.

Leave out Burnley - because going to Turf Moor was always going to be something of a free hit - but both last night and in 60 mins v 10 men v Bristol City we’ve really created precious little in games where we’re underdogs had the opportunity to turn the screw. Against Stoke, too, we didn’t do enough to earn a win. I do get the logic of keeping it tight - if you score you might win, but if you don’t concede you won’t lose - but if we fail to win on Saturday and we put in a similarly toothless performance going forward, it’s going to feel very much like four points dropped this week.

A win will calm the nerves that are at risk of starting to jangle a little. That said, looking at it objectively, I think we have every right to be confident. We’ve been generally very good against the worst sides at home this year, and if Pompey are to stay up it’ll be a result of their home form, too. It’s also pretty helpful when a team has one obvious outlet, as you know you can focus on shutting him down and I suspect that, while Murphy is obviously the danger man, his third game in a week will mean he tires earlier (especially if PP is on his game and he needs to track back).

It’s going to be tense but, if we win, I think we can start looking forward to next year. We’ll be over 40 points then, only needing a handful more over the final dozen games or so to guarantee safety, and with a handful of teams below us needing to overtake us. A massive game - I wouldn’t quite say ‘must win’ yet, but we absolutely must not lose.
 
I wonder whether, in a weird way, we have almost done too well, too early under Rowett. We’re in the slightly odd position now of, in a league table context, almost going ahead too early in game where we’re underdogs. There starts to be a bit of a tendency to stick with what you have, rather than continuing to push for goals. The danger there is always that you get hit with a sucker punch and end up losing.

Leave out Burnley - because going to Turf Moor was always going to be something of a free hit - but both last night and in 60 mins v 10 men v Bristol City we’ve really created precious little in games where we’re underdogs had the opportunity to turn the screw. Against Stoke, too, we didn’t do enough to earn a win. I do get the logic of keeping it tight - if you score you might win, but if you don’t concede you won’t lose - but if we fail to win on Saturday and we put in a similarly toothless performance going forward, it’s going to feel very much like four points dropped this week.

A win will calm the nerves that are at risk of starting to jangle a little. That said, looking at it objectively, I think we have every right to be confident. We’ve been generally very good against the worst sides at home this year, and if Pompey are to stay up it’ll be a result of their home form, too. It’s also pretty helpful when a team has one obvious outlet, as you know you can focus on shutting him down and I suspect that, while Murphy is obviously the danger man, his third game in a week will mean he tires earlier (especially if PP is on his game and he needs to track back).

It’s going to be tense but, if we win, I think we can start looking forward to next year. We’ll be over 40 points then, only needing a handful more over the final dozen games or so to guarantee safety, and with a handful of teams below us needing to overtake us. A massive game - I wouldn’t quite say ‘must win’ yet, but we absolutely must not lose.
No we really haven't! I'd readily take doing even better under him as it's sort of what we're trying to achieve.
 
I fear for this game, Pompey are finding goals easy to come by!

Pompey also have the worst defense in the division outside of Plymouth.

I think I'm going with the following:

Cumming
Kioso Helik Brown Leigh
Vaulks Cam
Goodrham Rodrigues Dembele
Romeny

Logic being 1) Placheta looks like the ultimate volatile winger, and as good as he was for a period of games after Christmas, he's pretty bad at the moment. He's also not all that disciplined when it comes to tracking back and.......2) we know that Pompey's #1 threat is coming down our right. Kioso is the right man to counter him, but I think Tyler is that much more likely to get up and down and offer him the support he needs to double Murphy up from time to time. 3) What we lose in creativity from not having Placheta, we make up by putting RR back in the middle. And 4) Romeny up top, because why the hell not?
 
Think I'd go:

Cumming
Kioso Helik Brown Leigh
Maton Brannagan
Placheta Rodrigues Dembele
Harris

The key from a defensive perspective is nullifying Murphy, and I think Matos would be better at backing up Kioso than Vaulks, as he covers short distances so quickly.

That front four should be enough to cause problems against the league's second worst defence, but if it's not working i'd like to see Goodrham and Mills on with enough time to properly get into the game.

We also need to make the most of set pieces. They were poor on the whole against Derby.
I’d be happy to see that starting lineup, but with Romeny instead of Harris.

Harris has had enough chances now, it’s time to see what Ole can do.
 
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I’d be happy to see that starting lineup, but with Romeny instead of Harris.

Harris has had enough chances now, it’s time to see what Ole can do.
Harris is undoubtedly horrendously out of form, but he is a known quantity. He will work hard, press etc and he's disciplined positionally when we're defending. Romeny is just too much of an unknown quantity to start in such a big game. Bring him on by all means, but to start? Not for me.

If Bradshaw was fit he'd be in my starting 11.
 
Harris is undoubtedly horrendously out of form, but he is a known quantity. He will work hard, press etc and he's disciplined positionally when we're defending. Romeny is just too much of an unknown quantity to start in such a big game. Bring him on by all means, but to start? Not for me.

If Bradshaw was fit he'd be in my starting 11.
I’m just sick of Harris producing absolutely nothing for so long now, on and off the ball, and in front of goal, he shouldn’t be keeping his place in the side.

Romeny might be an unknown quantity, but that doesn’t mean he can’t produce the goods.

Everyone’s an unknown quantity at some point, until they’re not.

The big games are the best games to announce your arrival! Chuck him in! 💪
 
I’m just sick of Harris producing absolutely nothing for so long now, on and off the ball, and in front of goal, he shouldn’t be keeping his place in the side.

Romeny might be an unknown quantity, but that doesn’t mean he can’t produce the goods.

Everyone’s an unknown quantity at some point, until they’re not.

The big games are the best games to announce your arrival! Chuck him in! 💪
He is an unknown quantity to me and many others, but certainly not to the coaching team.
 
I can't see Rowett starting Romeny, as much as some of us would like him too. GR is a pragmatic manager who sticks with what is best for the moment. Harris works very hard and is quite unselfish in his play. He has been dropping quite deep lately to hold the ball up and give a pass. This is why we need RR or TG back in the 10 to drive the attack forwards. Matos is best further back and I think GR would have realised this after bringing Ruben into the game on Tuesday. We need to have constant energy up top on Saturday and build on the great work our back line is doing. Romeny will get his chance, GR said so on the radio after Derby, but for Pompey at home he is going to choose Harris. I'd be intrigued to see if my predictions are wrong though, I'd love to see Ole have a chance just to see what he can do.
 
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The more I think about it, the more I like this option, as it would allow us to double up on Murphy, nullifying his threat, with Kioso and Long, while Helik and Brown can shift across, and Leigh can drop back into left back, so we don’t leave any spaces across the backline.

We can do the exact same type of thing when pompey are attacking down the other side as well.

Cam and Matos can dominate the midfield, with Tyler and Dembele dropping in to help and pick the ball up in central areas, whilst also drifting into wide areas.

Romeny says he prefers playing as the central striker, so get the ball into him from crosses and though balls, and let’s see what he’s got.

So easy
 
Leigh would be a great shout towards the end of games ,hes a handful and didnt he used to play center forward when he was younger. But hopefully Ole starts Saturday weve got to find out how good he is one way or another
 
I’m quietly confident of a win if we can find a goal or 2 - defensively I think we’ve got enough to keep them out.

No idea on the Harris/Romeny thing really - it’s all just so predictable and for the whole season teams have known exactly what they will have to defend against - someone legging it about and being a bit of a nuisance but largely being ineffective as a goal threat or holding the ball up to bring others in. It’s sort of immaterial who plays that role, but I don’t see it changing and it’s a sacrifice GR is clearly happy with in pursuit of the rest of the team being more solid.

Just hope Mills little cameo of getting by players and getting the ball in the box has maybe shown the other wingers what is needed (because we know that’s going to be the Pompey threat through Murphy)…but I fear we’ll continue to be a bit wishy-washy and unadventurous not wanting to over commit with the odd silly long-shot thrown in for the cameras.
 
I am always amused that players not selected in the team and not selected by the manager to start would be a better choice than the incumbent. Harris works his socks off. If Romenay was a natural goal scorer do you think GR would leave him out. Just realised that Harris is great for the job required. Run around, be a nuisance and create space for others. At home the big requirement for me is RR in the 10 role. Imagination and we always look more threatening when he is up to speed
 
I am always amused that players not selected in the team and not selected by the manager to start would be a better choice than the incumbent. Harris works his socks off. If Romenay was a natural goal scorer do you think GR would leave him out. Just realised that Harris is great for the job required. Run around, be a nuisance and create space for others. At home the big requirement for me is RR in the 10 role. Imagination and we always look more threatening when he is up to speed
100% this. Saturday’s likely the only game in the last 14 that the bookies will have us as favourites to win, Ruben’s the one who links it all together, giving Harris that support and feeding the wingers. Without him and the extra body flooding the midfield, we look really solid but isolate our forwards so badly.
 
I suspect (and hope) that we'll see Romeny come on with Mills around the 60 minute mark depending on the way the game is playing out. Whilst you can't completely judge a player by highlights reels, the 23/24 season reel for Romeny suggests that he'd get into positions that would enable him to exploit balls coming into the box from Mills and/or Leigh.
 
Murphy is a very good player, but despite this Portsmouth are still very inconsistent and awful away. Yes we need to be aware of his threat, but we're at home against a team that has been consistently below us all season. We have to be confident and play to our own strengths.

Placheta and Dembele, for all of their faults, do allow us to stretch the play quickly and isolate their full backs. The best way to stop Murphy is to ensure that he's needed to support his left back when Placheta is running at him. Kioso marshalled Murphy well in the first game, and the only concession I'd make is to have a midfield three of Vaulks, Cam and Matos so that out of possession one of these can engage Murphy higher up the pitch to stop him breaking away, or can drop in alongside Kioso to stop Murphy coming inside.

In possession we still have Cam and Matos who can direct play, so I don't think that we would lose to much over having Ruben as a 10.

And can we not have the "I'll take a draw" lot dragging this thread down? If that's your predictions then great. But you don't need to keep repeating it over and over and pissing on everyone else's chips.
 
Not fact checked .
Pompey are 2nd only to Leeds for the most possession in the final third .
Portsmouth are top of the league for how much of the game is played in the opposition third, with Leeds second. However Portsmouth have also conceded more goals to a counter attack than any other team with 8, whereas Leeds have only conceded 1. Leeds have also scored more goals via a counter attack than any other team (10), as well as scoring far more goals (45) from open play than any other side.

Which would suggest Leeds' play in the opposition third is very incisive, and they also pose a threat on the breakaway. Obviously that makes sense as they are the best side in the league. Portsmouth on the other hand are far more likely to get done on the counter if they lose the ball high up the pitch, so it'll be interesting how we shape up on Saturday.
 
I am considering conceding a 3-0 loss just to save our goal difference from a further hammering, they lost 2-1 to Sheffield United and spend a lot of time in the opposition final third. If you ignore their terrible away form, both recent and over the season, their actual position in the league and add in its a home game for them because of Mous and Murphy then I think its the sensible way forward.
 
Having seen the highlights of their last few games, the vast majority of their chances come from Murphy on the left ( his crosses and shots).
We can't give him too much room.
Agree that we need to give Pompey something to think about and Placheta/ Mills need to get really have good games. If they can pin back their left back, then hopefully Murphy will have more defending to do than he would want to.
 
All things considered, we cannot be happy to settle for a draw before a ball is kicked..seriously.
Home win, anyhow, by any means. Just silence the inane ‘blue army’ dirge.
I'll take a draw in every remaining game, unless we need to win at Swansea to stay up. But a win on Saturday would be fantastic and would almost guarantee survival. Also a friendly reminder to our former loved ones that they are missing out by not being here.
 
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