Home Match Day Thread 01/11/2025 - MDT: Oxford United V Millwall

[Carpy]

 

[Yellow Dog]

This system compares the 34 identical games from the previous season and the 12 new (promoted and relegated clubs). Every season we stay in the Championship from now on, will be straight forward to understand as it will always be 6 new promoted & relegated clubs.
I think last years circumstance of us being a promoted club is confusing people.
Because last season we were one of those teams who were promoted, we only played 10 of these games. Those clubs were Sheff Utd, Burnley, Luton, Derby & Portsmouth. We achieved 11 points.
It really doesn't matter about the exceptional circumstances for last season, brought about because we were 'new' ourselves. The bottom line is we acheived 11 points against all of the promoted and relegated sides last year. It doesn't matter what those sides are. It is just a basis for comparison.

 

[tonyw]

This system compares the 34 identical games from the previous season and the 12 new (promoted and relegated clubs). Every season we stay in the Championship from now on, will be straight forward to understand as it will always be 6 new promoted & relegated clubs.
I think last years circumstance of us being a promoted club is confusing people.
Because last season we were one of those teams who were promoted, we only played 10 of these games. Those clubs were Sheff Utd, Burnley, Luton, Derby & Portsmouth. We achieved 11 points.
It really doesn't matter about the exceptional circumstances for last season, brought about because we were 'new' ourselves. The bottom line is we acheived 11 points against all of the promoted and relegated sides last year. It doesn't matter what those sides are. It is just a basis for comparison.

Do you recognize that your analysis ignores all of the results against Plymouth and Cardiff (or Sunderland) last year - the ones that ultimately kept us up?

Do you recognize that your analysis includes the results against Derby and Portsmouth (and Sheffield United) twice?

If so, I'd love to understand why you think this makes sense?!?

 

[SteMerritt]

I'm really struggling to see the argument here. The fact we were a promoted team last season is neither here nor there. Last season is our baseline.

You take the Leeds, Burnley, and Sunderland games in comparison to Leicester, Southampton, and Ipswich. The top end replacements.

You take the Cardiff, Luton, and Plymouth results and compare them to Birmingham, Wrexham, and Charlton. The bottom end replacements.

 

[Basham Wonderland]

I'm really struggling to see the argument here. The fact we were a promoted team last season is neither here nor there. Last season is our baseline.

You take the Leeds, Burnley, and Sunderland games in comparison to Leicester, Southampton, and Ipswich. The top end replacements.

You take the Cardiff, Luton, and Plymouth results and compare them to Birmingham, Wrexham, and Charlton. The bottom end replacements.

Yeah you just do:

[X] out of 9 points against the three promoted teams, compared to [Y] against last year's promoted teams.

Repeat for the relegated teams.

Not perfect, but it works absolutely fine in the circumstances.

 

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

I'm really struggling to see the argument here. The fact we were a promoted team last season is neither here nor there. Last season is our baseline.

You take the Leeds, Burnley, and Sunderland games in comparison to Leicester, Southampton, and Ipswich. The top end replacements.

You take the Cardiff, Luton, and Plymouth results and compare them to Birmingham, Wrexham, and Charlton. The bottom end replacements.

That is literally how 99.9% of football supporters brains would (and should) work, yes.

But we have, in the room, not only a member of the 0.1% - but an incredibly impassioned one at that.

This has the potential to be YellowsForum's very own 'he's 28 until he's 29'

 

[Yellowecky]

I think I could attend a 3-week beginners course on xG and still come away from it with absolutely no idea of what it means or why it matters.

However, your explanation was the closest thing to helpful so far.

That's me.

 

[stokeu]

57% of people pretend to understand Xg.

38% correctly claim to have no idea wtaf it is (count me in here btw)

The remaining 9% are mathematical tactical geniuses who know exactly what it is.

 

[Stranger]

It's always struck me as an odd metric because it tells you what was expected to happen, whereas surely what actually happens is far more important. I get that it measures the goalscorability of chances, but I'm by no means convinced that it matters. That Mark Harris miss at Sheffield, for example. Did that have a high xG or, because it was Marris, did the xG bot just shrug it aside and say to itself, 'nah, didn't expect him to score that'? And even if it did have a high xG, so what. He missed and that's the important thing, not whether or not he was expected to score.

 

[Yellow Dog]

Do you recognize that your analysis ignores all of the results against Plymouth and Cardiff (or Sunderland) last year - the ones that ultimately kept us up?

Do you recognize that your analysis includes the results against Derby and Portsmouth (and Sheffield United) twice?

If so, I'd love to understand why you think this makes sense?!?

I really dont understand why you dont understand.

Let me put it another way. Last season we achieved 11 points from the promoted & Relegated clubs and 42 points from all the other clubs.

In the other clubs category we are +4 points up (46 points) this season and so far from promoted and relegated relegated clubs we have 1 point.

46 +1 = 47 points

All I have done is to describe it in a different way.

53 +4 -10 = 47 points.

This isn't about form against individual clubs. It's about comparing two categories. They could be Teams that play in Blue kits and Red kits for all it matters. People who keep saying 'What about Sunderland and what about Leeds' just dont understand the concept.

It's just a tool to show you exactly where we stand at the moment. I could do one for teams that end in United V City V Other and still give you our current Form of 47 points.
Because, once you have a baseline, you can form anything.

 

[Chris on a Bike]

I think it was on one of those "what is thing?" pages, but it showed a soccer or football stadium with little panels fixed vertically about a foot square every three or four rows at the end of each row of seats. Can't find the picture, but apparently it is a localised mobile phone signal booster. Very useful for match-day activations.

Someone will probably pipe-up and tell me I shouldn't be looking at my phone during the match.

You shouldn't be looking at your phone during the match. But everyone wants to know how Brackley Town are getting on. Don't they?

 

[tonyw]

I really dont understand why you dont understand.

Let me put it another way. Last season we achieved 11 points from the promoted & Relegated clubs and 42 points from all the other clubs.

In the other clubs category we are +4 points up (46 points) this season and so far from promoted and relegated relegated clubs we have 1 point.

46 +1 = 47 points

All I have done is to describe it in a different way.

53 +4 -10 = 47 points.

This isn't about form against individual clubs. It's about comparing two categories. They could be Teams that play in Blue kits and Red kits for all it matters. People who keep saying 'What about Sunderland and what about Leeds' just dont understand the concept.

It's just a tool to show you exactly where we stand at the moment. I could do one for teams that end in United V City V Other and still give you our current Form of 47 points.
Because, once you have a baseline, you can form anything.

Last try - but please read the rest of the last couple of pages on this thread and recognize you're on an island. Noone else here thinks you've got this right, because you haven't. Your analysis doesn't show where we stand because it doesn't take account - at all - of the results we got against clubs that are neither still in this division nor were newly promoted/relegated sides last season.

If we divide it the way you say, then last season we got 11 points from the promoted & relegated clubs (i.e. Derby, Portsmouth, Luton, Burnley & Sheffield United). OK we're agreed.

We got 42 points from the other eighteen clubs - again, we agree - divided like this:

Millwall, Norwich, Stoke, Preston, Plymouth, Cardiff - 4
Sunderland, Blackburn, Wednesday, Watford, Hull - 3
Bristol City, WBA, Swansea - 1

How are you going to account for the 11 points that we got against Plymouth, Cardiff and Sunderland?

Answer: You don't. You ignore those results, and instead sub in Derby, Portsmouth and Sheffield United - the three clubs that are both repeat clubs and were promoted/relegated clubs - and count them all for a second time.

And that is why your analysis is deeply flawed as a season-by-season comparison, and why you should really stop posting it so we don't have to have this conversation again each and every week.

 

[Yellow Dog]

Last try - but please read the rest of the last couple of pages on this thread and recognize you're on an island. Noone else here thinks you've got this right, because you haven't. Your analysis doesn't show where we stand because it doesn't take account - at all - of the results we got against clubs that are neither still in this division nor were newly promoted/relegated sides last season.

If we divide it the way you say, then last season we got 11 points from the promoted & relegated clubs (i.e. Derby, Portsmouth, Luton, Burnley & Sheffield United). OK we're agreed.

We got 42 points from the other eighteen clubs - again, we agree - divided like this:

Millwall, Norwich, Stoke, Preston, Plymouth, Cardiff - 4
Sunderland, Blackburn, Wednesday, Watford, Hull - 3
Bristol City, WBA, Swansea - 1

How are you going to account for the 11 points that we got against Plymouth, Cardiff and Sunderland?

Answer: You don't. You ignore those results, and instead sub in Derby, Portsmouth and Sheffield United and count them all for a second time.

And that is why your analysis is deeply flawed, and why you should really stop posting it so we don't have to have this conversation again each and every week.

Are you honestly telling me you can't understand that we took 11 points from the Promoted & Relegated clubs last season and 42 points from all the other clubs?

 

[Yellow Dog]

How are you going to account for the 11 points that we got against Plymouth, Cardiff and Sunderland

FFS, it's not about form against individual clubs.

If I was bothered, I could create a form table of our results against Teams A-M and N-Z and still show you we have 47 points.

What is it you dont understand?

 

[tonyw]

FFS, it's not about form against individual clubs.

If I was bothered, I could create a form table of our results against Teams A-M and N-Z and still show you we have 47 points.

What is it you dont understand?

What you don't seem to get is that in your analysis you are (figuratively speaking, not literally) creating one table comparing results against Teams A-M, and another comparing results against Teams L-W, and then completely ignoring teams X,Y & Z.

But whatever, I'll shut up now - @SirAndyOfCrosby you were right, I give in........

 

[holdsteady]

FFS, it's not about form against individual clubs.

If I was bothered, I could create a form table of our results against Teams A-M and N-Z and still show you we have 47 points.

What is it you dont understand?

I don’t understand any part of what either are you are going on about.

Bring back jumpers for goalposts I say.

 

[Stranger]

I don’t understand any part of what either are you are going on about.

Bring back jumpers for goalposts I say.

Is that actual jumpers or expected jumpers?

 

[JayOx88]

What you don't seem to get is that in your analysis you are (figuratively speaking, not literally) creating one table comparing results against Teams A-M, and another comparing results against Teams L-W, and then completely ignoring teams X,Y & Z.

But whatever, I'll shut up now - @SirAndyOfCrosby you were right, I give in........

It has echos of the Millwall ( I think) season ticket holder who went viral on Twitter/X because he got into a rage that the club kept selling his ticket without his permission as it was always blanked out when he looked at the online seat map, but couldn't get his head round the fact that of course the seat would always show as sold because it had been sold for the entire season... to him.

@Yellow Dog - you can't make an accurate comparison against last season when the points total against the sides we were promoted with is then also included in the points total of the 34 identical games.

 

[londonyellow]

I don’t understand any part of what either are you are going on about.

Bring back jumpers for goalposts I say.

Isn't it? Mmmmm. Marvellous.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

I’d much rather go by the 5 game block method to see how we are doing in regards to staying up/form. If only someone had done a thread which is easy to follow, oh wait…

Matches Thread 'Championship 5 Game Blocks 25/26'

26 Jun 2025

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• Steve Gilbert
• Replies: 58
• Forum: Matches

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[Big Ronaldo]

One thing that I noticed last night, our press from goal kicks and pass backs by them was never fully backed.
There was always an out ball for Stoke to play.
If you are gonna play a high press, then f*****g play it. Don’t have it half-arsed, you just waste energy for the players who are committed to it as the ball always finds its way way to the free man.