Away Match Day Thread 18/9/21 L1: Cheltenham Town v OUFC

How sure are you? And when will this happen? And you are willing to believe this because we have created chances?

Good God! Chances don't get us promoted. Chances don't equate to goals. Chances don't win games.

When are you folk going to wake up? We've had chances. We failed to take them. We didn't score. We didn't win. We didn't get promoted.

It's not bloody rocket science.

This is the mentality that Robinson drums into us. That we were the better team, that we dominated, that he's proud of his team, that the fans are great, that we are building something, that we are standing by our style of play.
He might be a very nice chap and firm exponent of humanitarian methods but, he doesn't win enough games. He doesn't get us promoted.
He doesn't send Mrs Lounger and myself home after a game feeling happy having lost.
You're entitled to your opinion and clearly don't rate our manager

There are 11/12 teams all capable of promotion + the odd surprise so To quote you "When are you going to wake up"

Can you tell us who this Genius of a manager is that will have all the above doing full circle + why and how can you be sure?
 
under KR have always scored a shed load of goals
As I've pointed out before, often we score a lot of goals in single games - flat track bullies if you will - which does skew the stats quite a lot. If you go back to last season and count up the games where we didn't score it was surprisingly high, despite us having a really good total of goals. We seem to either score nothing, or score a hat full.
 
You're entitled to your opinion and clearly don't rate our manager

There are 11/12 teams all capable of promotion + the odd surprise so To quote you "When are you going to wake up"

Can you tell us who this Genius of a manager is that will have all the above doing full circle + why and how can you be sure?
Doesn't have to be a genius. A realist would be a good start. I don't have the answer as to who could be the next manager, not my place to say. What I can see is this repetition of Robinson in the belief that he has got the right formula. He may have one good idea but, without the right personnel in place it is not going to work. His statement after the Blackpool game showed that maybe, maybe he had identified a flaw and would seek to remedy, he didn't. Instead we got more wingers. We got lucky with Seddon and Thornily - they show enough promise to believe they will work out - but, the spoken about physicality needed didn't materialise.
We hear all the talk of injuries and lack of fitness etc but that affects every team. Yesterday we saw how going behind the team slumped and more or less gave up.
It matters not what I think of Robinson, it's results and league position that counts and, at the moment, as it was in the last two seasons, we are not doing very well. I don't see how anyone can defend that position or the actions of the manager with his pre-determined subs, persisting with Winnall. playing Whyte on his less favoured side, failing to recruit defenders but bringing in more wingers. I'm sure Robinson is a very likeable chap but he is, in my opinion, not the right manager for the task.
 
How sure are you? And when will this happen? And you are willing to believe this because we have created chances?

Good God! Chances don't get us promoted. Chances don't equate to goals. Chances don't win games.

When are you folk going to wake up? We've had chances. We failed to take them. We didn't score. We didn't win. We didn't get promoted.

It's not bloody rocket science.

This is the mentality that Robinson drums into us. That we were the better team, that we dominated, that he's proud of his team, that the fans are great, that we are building something, that we are standing by our style of play.
He might be a very nice chap and firm exponent of humanitarian methods but, he doesn't win enough games. He doesn't get us promoted.
He doesn't send Mrs Lounger and myself home after a game feeling happy having lost.
A very ironic post - 'it's not rocket science' yet in most of your speech there you are trying to make football in to an exact science.

How sure is anybody they will get promoted? How sure is anyone when that will happen? Chances do help to win games because goals come from chances. You're looking for guarantees so I'm afraid you're in the wrong sport. If we're going to be simpletons about it then scoring goals & keeping clean sheets is what gets you promoted - not one or the other. You will need both along the way; when you fail at the back, you need goals. When you fail up top, you need to get out with a clean sheet. We do not have that balance yet but it does not mean we never will and you can pick out all the individual matches you want to suit your argument but you can't argue with 2 successive 6th place finishes! So we're going right more than we are going wrong and I might be wrong here but from Xmas onwards weren't we in the top 2? I don't think that's gospel but it shows a trend that we were very much heading the right way.

He's never asked you to enjoy a loss but if he came out moaning like fans do, we'd have a far bigger issue on our hands. He has to be positive about the team/be pragmatic with criticism, we often do dominate the ball (is he wrong?), he has to praise the fans (deservedly) and he has every right to stand by a style which has brought him reasonable success at 3 clubs at this level. And yes, play-offs was, and still is, success for all of them!
 
A very ironic post - 'it's not rocket science' yet in most of your speech there you are trying to make football in to an exact science.

How sure is anybody they will get promoted? How sure is anyone when that will happen? Chances do help to win games because goals come from chances. You're looking for guarantees so I'm afraid you're in the wrong sport. If we're going to be simpletons about it then scoring goals & keeping clean sheets is what gets you promoted - not one or the other. You will need both along the way; when you fail at the back, you need goals. When you fail up top, you need to get out with a clean sheet. We do not have that balance yet but it does not mean we never will and you can pick out all the individual matches you want to suit your argument but you can't argue with 2 successive 6th place finishes! So we're going right more than we are going wrong and I might be wrong here but from Xmas onwards weren't we in the top 2? I don't think that's gospel but it shows a trend that we were very much heading the right way.

He's never asked you to enjoy a loss but if he came out moaning like fans do, we'd have a far bigger issue on our hands. He has to be positive about the team/be pragmatic with criticism, we often do dominate the ball (is he wrong?), he has to praise the fans (deservedly) and he has every right to stand by a style which has brought him reasonable success at 3 clubs at this level. And yes, play-offs was, and still is, success for all of them!
Converted chances get goals.

The argument put across was related to XG this wonderful new science of showing how good everything is. (despite losing)
 
Doesn't have to be a genius. A realist would be a good start. I don't have the answer as to who could be the next manager, not my place to say. What I can see is this repetition of Robinson in the belief that he has got the right formula. He may have one good idea but, without the right personnel in place it is not going to work. His statement after the Blackpool game showed that maybe, maybe he had identified a flaw and would seek to remedy, he didn't. Instead we got more wingers. We got lucky with Seddon and Thornily - they show enough promise to believe they will work out - but, the spoken about physicality needed didn't materialise.
We hear all the talk of injuries and lack of fitness etc but that affects every team. Yesterday we saw how going behind the team slumped and more or less gave up.
It matters not what I think of Robinson, it's results and league position that counts and, at the moment, as it was in the last two seasons, we are not doing very well. I don't see how anyone can defend that position or the actions of the manager with his pre-determined subs, persisting with Winnall. playing Whyte on his less favoured side, failing to recruit defenders but bringing in more wingers. I'm sure Robinson is a very likeable chap but he is, in my opinion, not the right manager for the task.
Not that I don’t agree with a lot of what u say, but how much better do u expect us to do? In the last two seasons we’ve just had two playoff campaigns in a row, and our highest league finishes in over twenty years, competing with some massive clubs now in our league along the way, and having some fantastic cup runs as well.
 
Converted chances get goals.

The argument put across was related to XG this wonderful new science of showing how good everything is. (despite losing)
I know you have to convert the chance, give me some credit. But one of your lines was 'chances don't equate to goals'... What's your goal scoring master plan then if it isn't trying to create chances because the game must be seriously missing a trick here.
 
I know you have to convert the chance, give me some credit. But one of your lines was 'chances don't equate to goals'... What's your goal scoring master plan then if it isn't trying to create chances because the game must be seriously missing a trick here.
The argument I was countering, again, was that this wonderful XG figure that gets quoted, does not equate to wins. Of course you have to have chances in order to score - whether those chances are taken, is another matter. Having lots of chances does not win the game. Goals win the game.
We've had chances, apparently lots of chances. We've had two play off finishes. The chances were there and not converted. If you want a master plan, there it is. Convert chances. Cheltenham had one chance, they scored.

I think one of the problems is with the number of folk who are satisfied with what they have seen. I am not, others are not. I believe there is far more potential to this club. I happen to be one of those who doesn't believe that Robinson is the man for the task.
 
Not that I don’t agree with a lot of what u say, but how much better do u expect us to do? In the last two seasons we’ve just had two playoff campaigns in a row, and our highest league finishes in over twenty years, competing with some massive clubs now in our league along the way, and having some fantastic cup runs as well.
I am not knocking what has been achieved, it's what hasn't been that concerns me. As an older supporter I can remember playing in the old first division and for many years in the old second. (Premiership and Championship - granted they have changed quite a bit) And, don't forget '86 that was a cup run!
I began to get excited again when Appleton got us back into the Division 1 and then he left. But, there was a spark among fans, the thought that more could follow was there but, we all know what happened.
The new money coming into the club is from ambitious businessmen who will want success, will want more media coverage. That comes from being in the Championship and above, not play offs in Division 1.
 
I am not knocking what has been achieved, it's what hasn't been that concerns me. As an older supporter I can remember playing in the old first division and for many years in the old second. (Premiership and Championship - granted they have changed quite a bit) And, don't forget '86 that was a cup run!
I began to get excited again when Appleton got us back into the Division 1 and then he left. But, there was a spark among fans, the thought that more could follow was there but, we all know what happened.
The new money coming into the club is from ambitious businessmen who will want success, will want more media coverage. That comes from being in the Championship and above, not play offs in Division 1.
I remember us in div 2 and just about in the top division but the game has changed a lot since then - you don’t get the likes of Walsall and Bury in the championship. There is potential at the club as there is with any club in a wealthy area but at the moment we have about 7000 fans and a scruffy unfinished ground, and I’d say we are doing pretty well. If we do get new investment and a definite plan for a new ground the stakes could get higher, as you say.
 
Does KR deserve to stay in a job if we don't make play offs again this year? for me it would be time for a change.
 
I remember us in div 2 and just about in the top division but the game has changed a lot since then - you don’t get the likes of Walsall and Bury in the championship. There is potential at the club as there is with any club in a wealthy area but at the moment we have about 7000 fans and a scruffy unfinished ground, and I’d say we are doing pretty well. If we do get new investment and a definite plan for a new ground the stakes could get higher, as you say.
It's what I have been led to believe. Championship as a must for the investment.
 
KR has at a minimum earned the rest of this season to try and turn it around, unless we go on a ridiculously poor run and are right down the bottom end come Christmas. Last season after 8 games we had 6 points and some pretty abysmal losses. This season after 8 games we have 11 points and some pretty abysmal losses, but also some pretty decent wins. It took 13 games for our season to really kick in last year, after which (the Swindon loss :sick: ) we went unbeaten in 10 and only lost 3 in 21 games. It's no secret that KR teams take time to get going, I don't know exactly why, possibly because of our style of play or because we take shots on players who need longer to get up to speed, but in my opinion we are suffering the usual KR slow start, but because of the quality in the team it's looking a little less slow than usual, which naturally makes it more frustrating because we can see how good the team is on paper.

We've got two very winnable home games next against Gillingham and Accrington, then two really tough away fixtures against Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland, and then Plymouth and Shrewsbury at home after that, followed by Burton away then Morecambe at home to take us to the 16 game mark. Take 15-18 points from those 8 games and things will be looking a little better, 10-13 points better off than the same point last season when we went on a 7 game win streak. That's where I'm looking at this point, where we're at after the next 8 rather than after the first 8. Any more than 24 points and we'll be looking good with a PPG of 2+, any less than 20 then we should be more concerned as we'll be in a similar spot to where we were last season where we only just scraped the playoffs - in a league that is looking tougher towards the top.

It's a long season and calls for the head of the manager who has got us playoffs two seasons in a row are very premature. Similarly to early last season we're creating chances we just need to start putting them away and we'll be looking like a real contender again. Some players are struggling to recapture the form we know they're capable of - Whyte, Taylor, Agyei, Moore - and some need some time to get it going and may still come very good - McGuane, Holland, Kane. If most/all of those start to click we'll be up there end of the season. And if any don't then that's what January is for. Even after the embarrassing second half we saw yesterday, I still have faith that KR and this team will turn it around, and I'll back them 100% for as long as they are at OUFC.
 
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Well if we do get investment and a new ground then great. Till then might as well try to enjoy it - probably easier to do if you only go to home games
We enjoy most of our away days. This season has been a little testing so far but it won't stop us supporting, it's what we do. Admittedly, we are not going to Sheffield (just the wrong time, sadly) but we are already booked into hotel for Burton (on to Wales afterwards) and planning the rest of the season. Nice part of being retired, an away game can become a weekend away.
 
We enjoy most of our away days. This season has been a little testing so far but it won't stop us supporting, it's what we do. Admittedly, we are not going to Sheffield (just the wrong time, sadly) but we are already booked into hotel for Burton (on to Wales afterwards) and planning the rest of the season. Nice part of being retired, an away game can become a weekend away.
I'd be keener on away games if I had time to make a weekend of them.

I confess, I don't really know what xG is. Not sure it's worth anyone trying to explain it to me.
 
One of our big failures is that we are not scoring from set pieces, i wasnt at Cheltenham but at Wimbledon we had 13 corners, didnt score from any, i believe they had 5 and scored from 2. Surprised KR didnt bring Forde on, then of course i only saw the highlights on Saturday
 
With regard to away games, not sure if our trip to Sunderland will be on due to the next round of the Grealish / Kane show.
 
I'd be keener on away games if I had time to make a weekend of them.

I confess, I don't really know what xG is. Not sure it's worth anyone trying to explain it to me.
I am brave - I'll give it a go. Although it may be the blind leading the partially sighted!

xG = eXpected Goals

Pinched off t'Internet:

"Expected Goals uses various characteristics of the shots being taken together with historical data of such types of shots to predict the likelihood of a specific shot being scored. Since xG is simply an averaged probability of a shot being scored, a team or player may outperform or underperform their xG value. This means that they could be scoring chances that the average player would miss or that they could be missing chances that are often scored."

As I understand it, that is the basic version. Others add in more stats to include number of crosses, corners etc - which may be more (or less) accurate!

You can see the 'FootyStats' L1 xG here: https://footystats.org/england/efl-league-one/xg
 
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