International News Covid-19 .....

Is anyone else a touch nervous about the relaxation of restrictions?

I think the last truly honest statement from Boris was when he said 'Herd immunity, people you know will die..etc.'

The approach was publicly abandoned as the huge political og it undoubtedly was.

It may be the only way through this.

One success 'our' government has undoubtedly had is managing hospital capacity.

On to the next stage...
 
Is anyone else a touch nervous about the relaxation of restrictions?
Yes.

I have seen very little in the figures that indicates that we are anywhere near being out of the woods yet. I accept that the amount of positive tests are perhaps being skewed by the fact that there is (thankfully) more testing being done, but they do show that thousands of people are being tested positive every day. There must be tens of thousands more every day who are positive but not being tested.

The one thing stopping an even worse disaster happening is the fact that the vast majority of people (including the iller and older) are heeding the advice and staying at home. Of course, the chances are that those of us doing so have not had the virus and so are very vulnerable to it.

I'm not sure what sort of relaxation of the rules will be possible yet without causing another severe spike in cases.
 
I saw that this morning. Who in the procurement chain was checking the goods before ordering? There must have been sample items provided first? Shocking that this could happen.

Is this the shipment that embarrased the government a few weeks back, that didn't turn up when promised and ended up with the RAF going over to collect?

The Govt had to be seen to do something as they were getting a lot of flak for PPE, so making a big thing over the Turkey order made sense from a PR point of view. And based on the report I'd say yes this is that order so it has somewhat backfired longer term.

Agree that the quality not being checked is shocking, whoever's job that is.
 
When comparing stats, can anyone suggest why Excess Deaths isn't a pretty robust and comparable figure that shouldn't be influenced by reporting practises? For it not to be, either deaths have to be not getting reported, or previous deaths have been overestimated. Both seem unlikely, but I'm happy to be put straight by someone ITK.

The figures in the FT article someone posted a day or two ago look hard to argue with to me. https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
 
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Indeed. But I don't think anyone is saying that in this case the two things are causally related - that their death rate is worse BECAUSE they acted quickly? The illogical result of that is to think that doing nothing would have been better than doing anything - which it plainly isn't. And I don't think anyone is saying either that all the precautions we have taken and are still taking haven't saved any lives?

I don't know the situation in Belgium at all, but maybe having a major Eurostar hub hasn't helped (see also London and Paris)?

No, I was just pointing out that it's not straightforward, that's all.
 
When comparing stats, can anyone suggest why Excess Deaths isn't a pretty robust and comparable figure that shouldn't be influenced by reporting practises? For it not to be, either deaths have to be not getting reported, or previous deaths have been overestimated. Both seem unlikely, but I'm happy to be put straight by someone ITK.

The figures in the FT article someone posted a day or two ago look hard to argue with to me. https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Anyone know if there is a table that analyses deaths and population by colour and ethnicity?

After today’s announcement I would be interested to see how that looks.
 
When comparing stats, can anyone suggest why Excess Deaths isn't a pretty robust and comparable figure that shouldn't be influenced by reporting practises? For it not to be, either deaths have to be not getting reported, or previous deaths have been overestimated. Both seem unlikely, but I'm happy to be put straight by someone ITK.

The figures in the FT article someone posted a day or two ago look hard to argue with to me. https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

I recall seeing one of the fairly recent briefings where the minister of government advisor said that this would be the true indicator. However, they then said that it was not as easy as directly comparing one year to another due to the huge number of variables, but in time a true comparison would be made. This certainly didn't appear to be something that they were looking to fudge or cover up, but an acceptance that the current recorded figure was one that could be provided fairly quickly but the numbers would increase once they are properly assessed. This would be the same throughout the world as all are roughly accounting for record deaths only at this stage.
 
The target is completely irrelevant and is only now used as a stick to beat the Government.
I've said exactly that on here before. It's where any testing capacity sits within the overall strategy that's important.

But you and I didn't set the target, the government did! It was a knee jerk reaction with no obvious meaning. Hence one of many examples why so many think the government is making it up (badly) as it goes along. And yes we know this
It's worth pointing out that the figures reported by each country are not derived from a consistent data set or methodology. It seems the UK are reporting a lot more data now (hospital deaths, care home deaths, deaths at home, etc) and other countries are not doing that or have a different methodology. We're comparing apples with oranges in some areas.

For those with twisted logic, I'm not trying to say our figures are better or whatever conspiracy you want to find, just highlighting the data we all see is not the most complete or consistent or audited externally. And it's been the case since this started.
Agreed. But why the hell therefore has the government been referring to the same figures daily for the past six weeks? They use them if they think it shows them in a 'good' light but then discredit them the moment they don't!! Opportunistic carpetbaggers the lot of them without an ounce of strategic nous amongst them. Not to be trusted.
 
sometimes one country with similar population will suffer four times the death rate of another country.

And if you are a supporter of the government that has allowed so many of its population to die you seem singularly relaxed about this and move between denial and obfuscation.

Except the similarities end at density, age, ethnicity, health and many other influencing factors eh?

Shocking news but the NHS try and prevent people from dying, it was the virus that killed them not "The Evil Tories".
We have discharged 554 inpatients (poorly enough to be admitted) who tested positive (swab & bloods) and did not die. :)

I am relaxed because I deal with death every hour of every day in my rather varied role in Pathology.
That death can be clinical, self inflicted or accidental and there are lots of them, every day without fail.
Things that pass across my desk........... suicides, alcohol poisoning, starvation, diabetic ketoacidosis, AAA`s, aneurysm`s.... the list goes on and includes people who have only been noticed when the smell escapes or they start seeping through the floorboards into a neighbouring flat!

I worry more about those people than anything else. Where did they fall off the radar & why? That is a statement, not to detract or obfusicate from Cov-19.
 
Meanwhile, Bojo, Hancock n co are ensuring front line NHS staff n carers get the right PPE ...

And to think that when UK manufacturers were complaining a few weeks back that the government wasn't engaging with them some on here (you know who you are) were suggesting the manufacturers should just rock up at their local hospital with their PPE and hand out over for free. Like this government they will never admit they were wrong.
 
I've just heard Boris say that we have to make sure the data supports the action which will be taken to ease lockdown at the weekend.

I hope that's not precisely what he meant.
 
I've said exactly that on here before. It's where any testing capacity sits within the overall strategy that's important.

But you and I didn't set the target, the government did! It was a knee jerk reaction with no obvious meaning. Hence one of many examples why so many think the government is making it up (badly) as it goes along. And yes we know this

Agreed. But why the hell therefore has the government been referring to the same figures daily for the past six weeks? They use them if they think it shows them in a 'good' light but then discredit them the moment they don't!! Opportunistic carpetbaggers the lot of them without an ounce of strategic nous amongst them. Not to be trusted.
You can only at a top level compare with others based on what you know you have created. China have retrospectively changed their data, for instance. Some countries are over reporting, some are under reporting. There is a danger of getting too obsessed about whizzy looking graphs.

Also, not enough detail is based on primary cause of death - we all know that deaths of COVID as the primary cause and deaths of they have it have been put together. Some of us asked for this early on but it's been hard to get. As the UK Govt, you work with what you have and judge your in toto figures vs others less comprehensive ones.
 
If the need to furlough continues into July, Gov', its said ( News at 1.30pm), are looking at/ considering reducing the 80% pay guarantee to 60%- with various companies, (employers), struggling already, having to find an additional 20% - making up 40% of furloughed employees pay- is a move that seriously could tip many many employers into bankruptcy, and many furloughed employees into unemployment
 
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