It would be incredibly bad luck as you have to go back over 10 years for 74 points to not be enough to secure a play-off place and in that year the bottom side only managed 25 points so there were more points to share for the other teams.
Matches 74 points is the holy grail
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Berliner
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Nothing unlucky about our dog-sh*t start to the season, can't pin it on bad luck if the cards fall in such a way.
True but it would still be unlucky to finish with 74 points and not make the play-offs. Yes we had a terrible start but we've also had a club record winning streak.
Put another way, if we achieved 74 points over the season in a fairly steady manner and missed out, we would say we were unlucky given the historical points requirement for 6th place.
In the past 10 years 74 points has been enough.
So regardless on when we picked those points up and whether we beat the top teams or bottom teams we will be unlucky to not get in the play offs with 74 points. Surely?
I would also think that Lincoln would be unlucky not to get in the play offs with 74 points with a fantastic start to the season and their 'dog-s**t" finish to the season. Unless a bad start is worse than a bad finish?
IsleofWightYellow
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I don’t see why it matters when you win them - 3 points are 3 points. If we have the highest ever points total to not hit the playoffs that’s unlucky, in my book.
Generally yes. The table doesn't lie after 46 games.
But I am not sure that it is unreasonable to suggest that any team will be a little unfortunate to not get into the play offs with 74 points if it has been enough in each if the past 10 seasons.
Pompeyyellows
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If 6 teams end up with more points than us then there's not a lot we can do but accept that we wern't good enough this season.
Now thats what you call sitting on the fence lol
Or stating the bloody obvious lol
Now thats what you call sitting on the fence lol
Or stating the bloody obvious lol
Manorlounger
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And that is it, in a nutshell. No matter if we keep winning now, earlier in the season we didn't. We dropped points when we should have won and no winning run at this stage of the season is going to gloss over the deficiencies of the squad to cover injuries etc. Whatever happens, the coming transfer window has got to see some activity to rectify those gaps.
But, let's go to the end full tilt, win every game and trounce the lot of them!
Sunderland, Lincoln, Blackpool and Portsmouth could all get more than 77 points (our maximum), by winning the games they still have against teams in the bottom half of the table.
Sunderland v (2 from) Accy, Plymouth, Northampton
Lincoln v Burton, Shrewsbury, Wimbledon
Blackpool v Rochdale, Shrewsbury, Northampton, Bristol
Portsmouth v (4 wins + 1 draw) Swindon, Bristol, Accy x2, Wimbledon.
OX14
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They could, but then Pompey have only gained 1 point from their last 3 games against bottom half teams. Lincoln apart from the last 2 games have been on a poor run. Blackpool surely going to hit a blip at some point, Sunderland have been struggling recently.
Win our remaining 4 games and I have no doubt we will be in the play offs. But we have to win them so until its the last game of the season and we can see we still have a chance of getting in the play offs I wouldn't worry too much.
oufc1991
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I think this league this season is not a very good standard no team has taken control and ran away with it our first 10 games we were awful but if we’d have beaten the scum at home Crewe at home Northampton away all rearranged games we would have 74 points already also if we had got 10 points from those first 10 games we could be top now
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TailsWeWin
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That’s a remarkably pragmatic and sensible statement. You could hop onto my realism bus, and agree that KR c**ked up the start of the season with idiotic decisions which he failed to acknowledge were wrong. THAT’S why we are going to fall just short.
Barbadosyellow
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William Hill are giving the following odds on a top 6 finish:
Portsmouth 4/9
Oxford 2/1
Charlton 5/2
Ipswich and Blackpool are very long odds while Lincoln, Blackpool and Sunderland are all showing nailed on top 6 odds
Hoping that Portsmouth and OUFC will switch places in that list by 9pm
Portsmouth 4/9
Oxford 2/1
Charlton 5/2
Ipswich and Blackpool are very long odds while Lincoln, Blackpool and Sunderland are all showing nailed on top 6 odds
Hoping that Portsmouth and OUFC will switch places in that list by 9pm
werthersoriginal
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Yes. Imagine all the raging and 'Robbo out!'
NorthWestOx
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It's the hope that kills you.
Scotchegg
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So let's assume that we win the last 2, then we finish with 74 points and a goal difference of at least +18.
I think Sunderland will beat Blackpool, and get at least 4 points from their final 2 games. This will give them 80 points and 3rd.
Lincoln could slip with points against Accrington, Charlton and defeat to Peterborough. But a win against Wimbledon will give them 77 points and 4th.
Blackpool have lost the last 2 and I think will lose against Sunderland midweek. Their final 3 games should be 3 wins, but the pressure will be on them after a slump and I think they'll drop at least a couple of points more. 74 or 75 points with GD around +17.
Portsmouth have had a bad run but got a much needed win today. Accrington are playing with freedom and could certainly get at least a draw from one of the games, but that might be enough for Pompey. 74 or 75 points with GD + 15.
Charlton I think will beat Crewe and maybe Accrington but a point against Lincoln and defeat against Hull will see them finish 8th.
So I think it'll be between us, Blackpool and Portsmouth for 5th, 6th and 7th with maybe a point or goal difference between us all. We might come up a touch short, but we'll hopefully be able to take it to the last kick of the season and see where that gets us.
I think Sunderland will beat Blackpool, and get at least 4 points from their final 2 games. This will give them 80 points and 3rd.
Lincoln could slip with points against Accrington, Charlton and defeat to Peterborough. But a win against Wimbledon will give them 77 points and 4th.
Blackpool have lost the last 2 and I think will lose against Sunderland midweek. Their final 3 games should be 3 wins, but the pressure will be on them after a slump and I think they'll drop at least a couple of points more. 74 or 75 points with GD around +17.
Portsmouth have had a bad run but got a much needed win today. Accrington are playing with freedom and could certainly get at least a draw from one of the games, but that might be enough for Pompey. 74 or 75 points with GD + 15.
Charlton I think will beat Crewe and maybe Accrington but a point against Lincoln and defeat against Hull will see them finish 8th.
So I think it'll be between us, Blackpool and Portsmouth for 5th, 6th and 7th with maybe a point or goal difference between us all. We might come up a touch short, but we'll hopefully be able to take it to the last kick of the season and see where that gets us.
I wouldn't be so sure on Sunderland beating Blackpool. The form over the last 6 games is Sunderland 3 points* (3 draws, 3 losses) and Blackpool is 8 points (2w, 2d, 2L).
*This is on a par with Swindon who have 3 points but they did it with 1 win & 5 losses.
